“Yeah, but you’ve played more games than anyone else. You’ll drop down soon enough.”
I imagine a few of you have been faced with this argument ever since Plymouth Argyle went top of the league last week. And I hope, like me, you’ve been minded to laugh in the face of anyone making this claim.
Sure, Argyle have probably only reached the summit of League One because they continued to play through the international break. It may well be the case that we see some table rebalancing once games in hand have been played. Who cares? Argyle are a club who have found themselves struggling at the wrong end of the table at this stage of the season for what feels like an eternity. Any break from that trend is worth celebrating, and I’m glad most of us are.
The challenge for the new league leaders (and that will always feel great to say regardless of the wider circumstances) is to keep the positive momentum going. After defeating Leyton Orient 2-0 on the road last weekend, the Greens will be back in front of their own supporters for the visit of AFC Wimbledon on Saturday lunchtime. Wimbledon have made a solid enough start under Johnnie Jackson. They sit ninth, and are currently on a run of four league games without defeat.
The ordering of fixtures means Argyle could find themselves three points clear at the top by 3pm on Saturday. Let’s take a closer look at the side trying to stop them.
Style of play
Effective? Agricultural? Boring? There are plenty of familiar words we can use to describe Jackson’s style of play, some of which are kinder (and fairer) than others.
One thing is for sure: I’m ot expecting an entertaining end-to-end contest. In Wimbledon’s eight league games so far, only once have both teams scored (a 4-1 defeat to Burton Albion at the start of September). Jackson will intend to keep things tight in defence, and hope that his team can offer just about enough at the other end to secure a positive result.
To do this, he likes to line up with a back three that can often look like a back five, with ‘keeper Joe Bursik regularly protected by three centre backs. In those roles, Dan Sweeney and Isaac Ogundere are regular picks, and captain Ryan Johnson is likely to start too if he’s fit.
Availability could be a key consideration here though. A depleted squad for their draw with Cambridge United a fortnight ago saw Wimbledon only able to name five substitutes. Young centre back Riley Horan was given his first league minutes of the season from the bench.
Selections in the wing back roles will be particularly telling. On both sides, there is a more defensive and more attacking option. The left sees a choice between defender Steve Seddon and conventional winger Aron Sasu, whilst right back Andy Yiadom will be fighting for a place with wing back and former Pilgrim Steven Sessegnon. Both defensive options can also slot into the back three on their respective sides, should Jackson deem it necessary.
The Dons have made just two errors leading directly to shots or goals this season, with only Notts County making fewer.
The defence will absolutely be told to remain compact. Wimbledon will not be fazed at all by needing to soak up pressure, and their “no nonsense” approach to defending can certainly prove effective. There will be no messing about – the Dons have made just two errors leading directly to shots or goals this season, with only Notts County making fewer.
In midfield, the double-pivot will act as a strong shield for the defensive line. Alistair Smith plays a prominent role. He’s made more tackles than any Wimbledon player this season, and is one of just two (alongside Seddon) to have started all eight league games. Chelsea loanee Ollie Harrison is his most likely partner.
Further forward, Jackson has a preference for playing two men in behind a lone striker. Myles Hippolyte is likely to be one of them, returning to the squad after captaining Grenada in the international break. Callum Maycock appears to be in pole position to line up alongside him. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Zack Nelson, formerly of Luton Town, take to the field at some stage, and possibly from the start.
Both attacking midfielders will be expected to drift wide and, crucially, look for the overlap. Wimbledon don’t tend to hurt teams through dribbling; in fact, they’ve attempted fewer dribbles than any team in the league. Crossing, however, is vital, and overlapping wing backs are a key part of the puzzle. Seddon, for instance, has attempted 70 crosses this season, more than any player in League One.
The target for those crosses? That’s an easy one. Jayden Stockley, now 33, has been Wimbledon’s main and most physical forward ever since joining from Port Vale in August. He’s already scored two headed goals. Most notably he has, by a significant distance, contested more aerial duels than any player in the division.
Stockley will be at the centre of so much of what Wimbledon do going forward. Long balls from the goalkeeper will be aimed at Stockley. Any hold-up play to bring others into the game will be Stockley’s responsibility. Stockley will be the prime and obvious candidate for any crosses into the area. If Argyle can nullify him, they’ll go a long way towards keeping a clean sheet and winning the game.
Strengths
Jackson’s setup is defensive by nature. It appreciates the weaknesses amongst the squad, and gives his defensive players the best possible opportunity to succeed. Nonetheless, the defenders themselves still need to perform, and thus far they’ve collectively done an impressive job.
The most obvious place to start is goals against. Wimbledon have conceded eight league goals across their eight league games this season (“do the math on that, it’s one goal a game”). Considering they shipped a whopping 72 league goals across 2025/26, there are early but steady signs of a clear improvement.
Argyle were beaten 1-0 by Burton’s smash and grab a fortnight ago, and a repeat here against a resolute defence cannot be ruled out.
Jackson will probably be most encouraged by the way his players are demonstrating an ability to concentrate for the full 90 minutes. Wimbledon kept eight clean sheets in their 46 league games last season, but this year they already have five, the joint-highest figure in the division. Argyle were beaten 1-0 by Burton’s smash and grab a fortnight ago, and a repeat here against a resolute defence cannot be ruled out.
Wimbledon’s defence becomes even more fearsome when we consider the goalkeeper. The Dons are already on their third goalkeeper of the season; Nathan Bishop played the first game, but was dropped after just one game having shipped three away to Huddersfield Town. Joe McDonnell took the role but, still unconvinced, Jackson made a deadline day move for Bursik. He struck gold with the Portsmouth loanee.
A former Wimbledon academy graduate, Bursik has shone since returning to familiar surroundings. He’s only conceded once in the league since rejoining, despite facing shots with a post-shot xG value of 4.67. It’s early days, and the sample size is tiny, but Bursik has currently prevented more goals than any League One ‘keeper. He’ll clearly take some beating.
Alongside the goalkeeper, one of Wimbledon’s major defensive strengths is tackling. I wouldn’t put them in the same league as Burton, who I described as the best tackling team in the league a fortnight ago, but Wimbledon’s implied tackle success rate of 77% is currently enough to rank within the league’s top six. Smith leads the way, but there are plenty of contributors to their total of 125 tackles.
There is an advantage at the other end we must also consider. When you pair three centre backs on the pitch with Stockley leading the line, it naturally follows that you’ll be a significant threat from set pieces.
Wimbledon haven’t been racking up the goals from set pieces (or at all – more on that later) thus far, but their underlying data is strong. Whilst their net xG (effectively xG goal difference) from open play this year is -4.00, their net xG from set pieces is actually positive. It sits at 0.42, and that’s enough to rank within the league’s top ten.
41% of Wimbledon’s xG this season has come from set pieces. It’s a significant proportion, and the third-highest in the league. Given Argyle rank within the league’s top five in that particular metric, it wouldn’t shock me at all if this weekend’s game was decided by a dead-ball situation.
In general, Wimbledon will be hoping the game becomes a scrappy aerial battle. A few weeks ago, this looked like a complete mismatch, with Argyle ranking as one of the worst teams in the league for their aerial duel success. To their credit, they’ve improved lately, but their success rate of 47%, ranking 16th, still lags behind Wimbledon’s 53%, ranking eighth.
Argyle appear to have two choices to pursue victory. They can either play the game on their own turns to negate Wimbledon’s advantage, or fight fire with fire and back themselves to get the better of a good physical side in the air.
Weaknesses
Jackson goes into most games encouraging his side to be compact, and trusts that developing just a single chance on the break could be enough to secure victory. That plan certainly won’t change in an away game against the league leaders. Evidently, it can work, but it naturally creates a serious lack of attacking output, and puts significant pressure on the strikers to take their chances whenever they arrive.
It shows. Wimbledon have scored just six goals across their eight league games thus far (“do the math on that, it’s not even one goal a game”), with only Wigan Athletic and Peterborough United – the league’s current bottom two – scoring fewer. One goal can be enough to win any given game, but generally Wimbledon fans are likely to be nervous about their season’s prospects in front of goal.
There appears to be an issue with spreading goals throughout the side. Stockley has obviously scored in the league, as has Hippolyte…but that’s it. Indeed, only two players have found the net this season; predictably, no League One side has had fewer goalscorers than Wimbledon. You know how some teams long for a few more goals from midfield to propel them up the league? Wimbledon could do with another goalscorer or two from just about anywhere.
Whichever way you slice it, Wimbledon are lacking in most attacking metrics.
I’ve got several more stats to throw your way. Wimbledon have had fewer shots on target (21) than any other League One team. Their total xG of 7.73 ranks only 21st, with their open play figure down in 22nd. Their shot accuracy and conversion figures – 25% and 7% respectively – are both also in the league’s bottom four. Whichever way you slice it, Wimbledon are lacking in most attacking metrics, and Argyle should be confident of keeping them quiet.
One thing in particular caught my eye: Wimbledon haven’t had a substitute score for them this season. Given the small sample size of total goals, that’s not necessarily a surprise, but they are one of just two League One teams (alongside Leicester City) for whom that fact is true.
I can certainly foresee a scenario where Argyle’s “finishers” have just as much of an impact, if not more, than the starters on Saturday.
Is it perhaps an indication that Jackson struggles to use his bench to change games? Maybe, particularly given that 67% of Wimbledon’s goals this season have come in the first half. Again, the small sample size skews this (it’s only four out of six), but it’s arguably further evidence that patience could be key when facing this Wimbledon side. I can certainly foresee a scenario where Argyle’s “finishers” have just as much of an impact, if not more, than the starters on Saturday.
Scratch under the surface, and I’m not wholly convinced by Wimbledon’s underlying defensive numbers either. I do believe their defence has improved from last season, but that bar is incredibly low, and I think they’ve been fortunate thus far to have kept so many clean sheets.
As ever, xG data will be our friend here. Wimbledon’s xG against is 11.73, 47% higher than their actual goals conceded total. Their opponents’ poor shooting has favoured them massively, with their post-shot xG against coming in at 8.20. Is there an argument that they limit chances for their opponents, meaning there is more pressure on opposition strikers when chances do arrive, and they fluff their lines as a result? Perhaps, but good fortune has obviously played a role.
That could explain why they’ve experienced a couple of thrashings this season. Wimbledon may be tough to score against, but if you get one you could fancy your chances of getting a hatful. If Argyle are clinical, therefore, they’ve got every chance of securing a positive result.
Prediction
Argyle are certainly the more likely of the two to “run away” with the game, and it’s in Wimbledon’s best interests to keep things tight. I think they’re good enough to do so, however, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the game was settled late on.
In these circumstances, it’s always more prudent to back the side with the greater quality in their ranks. On this occasion, it’s the hosts.
Plymouth Argyle 1-0 AFC Wimbledon
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