Well, so much for my weekend off!
Planning ahead, I had assumed there would be no need for a preview this weekend (“there never is!” comes the call from the back – we’ll have less of that please). Sheffield Wednesday had umpteen internationals in their squad and, with this game falling during an international break, there was no way Plymouth Argyle’s game with them could go ahead. I’m indulging myself, as it happens, and am likely to be 30,000 or so feet in the air when the full-time whistle goes on Saturday.
However, it started to become apparent that some at the club were quietly confident the game would take place as planned. That had to be a mistake, right? Surely something was lost in translation, and club officials were only considering their own side rather than any internationals at Wednesday’s end. Well, apparently not. It’s game on, with the Pilgrims probably on their way to Hillsborough by the time you’re reading this.
It’s a significant game for both. Argyle travel as the higher-ranked of the two sides in the League One table, but have a poor recent record in these parts. As for Wednesday, this will be their first home league game under new management. Following Henrik Pedersen’s dismissal, and a brief caretaker spell from Matt Hamshaw, Dave Challinor was officially unveiled as Owls manager at the start of the month.
Challinor will certainly be hoping home comforts aid the “new manager bounce”, after his first competitive game saw Wednesday dumped out of the FA Cup away to League Two Oldham Athletic. His admittedly much-changed side were also demolished 4-0 by Accrington Stanley in the pizza cup. Do Argyle have it in them to pile on the misery?
Style of play
Without wanting to completely cop out here, it’s naturally difficult to judge. Challinor is yet to manage a league game at Wednesday, and it remains to be seen how much of his style from his days at Stockport County will carry over to his new surroundings.
There are other complications too. Wednesday are suspected to have multiple injury worries heading into the game, with several players seemingly on the cusp of being declared fit, but not quite there. At the time of writing, we don’t have many indications on who may be fit, particularly given Challinor played a heavily rotated side in the Accrington game.
Add in the fact that Wednesday have used 28 players in the league already this season – only Barnsley (29) have used more – and predicting their style becomes difficult. Not Alvechurch-level difficult, I grant you, but enough of a challenge that we’ll need to make assumptions.
At Stockport, Challinor often switched between a back three and a back four. Wednesday have done the same this season, so no shape is guaranteed. Having lined up with three at the back against Blackpool in their last league game, and against Oldham in the cup, it feels more likely that’ll be the case again, but it’s only a guess. The likes of Liam Palmer, Ricardo Santos, Di’Shon Bernard, Liam Cooper and Ernie Weaver offer options in the centre of defence.
Challinor could be forced into using third-choice ‘keeper Connal Trueman.
Problems loom behind them. First-choice goalkeeper Joe Lumley, a summer arrival from Bristol City, has been injured recently. There are rumours he could return to the squad this weekend, but that’s far from certain, and he didn’t make the squad against Accrington. To make matters worse, Lumley’s backup, Ashley Maynard-Brewer, went off injured against Oldham, meaning Challinor could be forced into using third-choice ‘keeper Connal Trueman. I hope Argyle test him regularly if that is the case.
Whoever lines up in the defensive positions will need to be comfortable on the ball. Wednesday seldom go long, at least compared to most of their competitors in this league, so playing out from the back will be important. That’s possibly even more true following Challinor’s arrival, given his Stockport side ranked fourth in League One last season for their average possession of 55.3%.
Whether it’s a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1, Wednesday are highly likely to line up with a midfield double pivot. And we can say with near certainty that one player involved will be Barry Bannan, an Owls legend who left the club at their time of need last season. Alongside him? Well, Billy Mitchell would be a likely starter but for his recent injury troubles, so Jaden Heskey is probably the favourite.
Callum Slattery is another involved in midfield, and “involved” is the operative word, given only four players in the league have contested more ground duels this season. However, he often plays in a more advanced role. I suspect he will again given absentees in the area (Louie Barry is injured long-term, and Kieran Morrison is on international duty with Northern Ireland). Harry Gray, on loan from Leeds United, looks poised to play alongside Slattery.
Jamal Lowe isn’t exactly winning over the hearts of the Wednesday faithful this season
Up front, another loanee in Davis Keillor-Dunn (this time from Wrexham) seems a highly likely starter. He’s scored in his last two, and seems to be playing himself into form. Ali Al-Hamadi and Mason Burstow both appear to be injured, whilst Jamal Lowe isn’t exactly winning over the hearts of the Wednesday faithful this season, though he does have a strong record against Argyle.
Finally, the wing back roles. Usually, I’d expect to see Max Lowe trusted on the left, with Yan Valery on the right, though it’s really anyone’s guess with Lowe’s recent injury. Given Wednesday actually appear fairly compact when defending – they don’t get dribbled past often, but don’t commit many tackles either – I’d expect whoever lines up as a wing back to be comfortable in their defensive role.
Strengths
There is certainly a credible argument that Wednesday have been less than the sum of their parts this season. However, they do still sit ninth in the league. Such an argument, therefore, probably says more about the strength of those parts rather than anything else.
Whether they should have been able to put the squad together under EFL rules is a debate I don’t dare open.
Make no mistake: on paper, Wednesday have put together a remarkable squad. Whether they should have been able to put it together under EFL rules is a debate I don’t dare open, but there are clearly players on the books who, by anyone’s reckoning, are serious threats at this level.
Even a cursory look through the squad shows how they’ve used the transfer market to great effect. The likes of Mitchell, Lumley and Santos were all brought in from Championship clubs in the window. Barry, whilst injured at the moment, was a fantastic coup from Aston Villa after his season at Stockport last year. And in normal circumstances, a club like Wednesday would find it simply impossible to sign a player like Bannan from Millwall.
Wednesday also haven’t shied away from exploiting the loan market, and they’ve made good use of it too. Six players at the club are currently on loan, including practically the entire attack: Heskey, Morrison, Burstow, Al-Hamadi, Keillor-Dunn and Gray have all been borrowed from teams further up the pyramid. It helps make Wednesday’s squad look frightening as a result.
Just as impressive are some of the players they’ve been able to keep. I felt sure that centre back Bernard would depart this summer, but he’s still around in the defence with Cooper and captain Palmer. Even Jamal Lowe, whilst not exactly in the fans’ good books after his recent red card in a defeat to Notts County, was scoring against Argyle in the Championship not too long ago.
Unsurprisingly, this gives Wednesday strengths at both ends of the field. Defensively, for example, they rank highly for interceptions, with only Bromley and Reading recording more this season than Wednesday’s 124. And whilst they may not tackle regularly, their success rate of 79% is only beaten by Stevenage’s 80%. That’s built on the fact their compact defending does appear to be excellent; no team in the division has been dribbled past on fewer occasions.
I think that suggests this may not necessarily be a game for Argyle’s “flair” players to come to the fore. I would, for example, probably be more in favour of starting Ronan Curtis over Oliver Irow, should Tom Cleverley opt for a formation using genuine wide men.
Individually, I’d probably point to Cooper as the most accomplished defender. He leads Wednesday’s ranks for defensive actions with 114, and is within the league’s top five for interceptions specifically. On a per 90 basis, however, youngster Weaver actually comes out on top. His relative lack of minutes skews the figure slightly, but his average of 14.35 defensive actions per 90 is undeniably impressive. Only two players in the league to have played as many minutes have posted a better figure.
They are the only team in League One to have scored as many as seven goals in a single game this season.
In attack, it’s unsurprising that Wednesday have scored plenty of goals given the talent in their ranks. They are the only team in League One to have scored as many as seven goals in a single game this season, doing so in August’s 7-2 demolition of Bromley. Their last win, in mid-October, also saw a crushing scoreline, as the Owls overcame AFC Wimbledon 5-0.
There is always a sense that this Wednesday side has the ability to blow teams away at this level. We haven’t always seen it, and the hope will be that Challinor gets all the pieces in the right place to fire them into promotion contention. Saturday would be the ideal start.
Weaknesses
Anyone who worries about tempting fate should probably look away now, because I’m going to make a claim that could very easily bite me on the backside by 5pm on Saturday. And that’ll be particularly unpleasant if it happens while I’m in the air.
My claim is as follows: despite the fact he’s undeniably been a fantastic player for Wednesday over several years, I think we’re beginning to see evidence that Barry Bannan could be past it.
I know! In even making this claim, I accept I’m practically guaranteeing that he’ll score at least twice in a comfortable victory for the hosts this weekend, and I apologise. However, you must remember I’m a data analyst for a living (though I’d understand if you’d forgotten, given I don’t mention it very often). Bannan’s numbers, to my eye, haven’t even been close to the level you’d expect for a player of his ability.
Bannan has always been known as the creative force in Wednesday’s ranks. However, it hasn’t really happened for him this season. He’s averaging 1.19 key passes per 90 minutes this season – it isn’t even enough to rank within the division’s top 150, and that figure was at 3.31 when he last played in League One. During that 2022/23 campaign, he totalled 20 goal contributions (7 goals, 13 assists). This year, it’s currently just two (one goal, one assist), and we’re already over a quarter of the way through.
I definitely feel Argyle have the tools to stop Bannan.
That’s significant. Bannan has been Mr Sheffield Wednesday for as long as many of us can remember, and has always been the player in the squad most capable of creating something from nothing. He may yet do so this weekend. However, given all I’ve said, and the fact he turns 37 next month, I definitely feel Argyle have the tools to stop him, particularly with somebody physical like Malachi Boateng in the middle.
Bannan’s poor form adds to the argument that this could be a good time to play Sheffield Wednesday. Granted, I’d rather have played them when Pedersen was still around. However, the Owls are coming off the back of extra time against Oldham on Sunday, a more recent pizza cup game, and have a manager under plenty of pressure to win in front of his club’s own supporters.
Indeed, Hillsborough hasn’t necessarily been the fortress Wednesday would have hoped this year. Only 50% of their total points have been won at home, one of the lowest proportions in the league. With Argyle one of the league’s best away from home, could that prove a key differential?
In terms of more specific weaknesses, I’d note that Wednesday have been statistically some of the worst dribblers in the league. They attempt plenty, but their success rate of 40% is the second-worst in the division, ahead of only Bromley (39%). Whisper it quietly, but this is the sort of game where Cleverley could perhaps get away with going back to playing four centre halves across the defensive line.
That’s definitely worth contemplating when you consider that Wednesday also appear to have a weakness when defending set pieces. 35% of the xG created against the Owls this season has been from set-pieces, with only Huddersfield Town (36%) and Bradford City (37%) posting higher figures. Sure, that’s also an indication that these teams tend to defend well from open play, but it does demonstrate that getting set pieces right (and perhaps having the right targets in the box) could be crucial to unlocking the door.
Prediction
Wednesday certainly have a talented group of players, and Argyle’s recent visits to Hillsborough have ranged from poor to genuinely diabolical. I’ve yet to see a worse performance from a professional side than Argyle’s 4-0 defeat in these parts on the opening day of 2024/25, and wonder if I ever will.
Still, Challinor’s arrival is a significant unknown given he’s managing his first home league game, and that could really go either way. I also genuinely believe Argyle have the tools to hurt Wednesday, and it’s worth remembering that the Owls have only won one of their last eight league games.
To be honest, I’m starting to get the impression that this feels drawish, and that’s probably where I’ll settle.
Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Plymouth Argyle
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