Amidst a succesion of salty club statements, Adam Price assesses the signing of Caleb Watts: a man signed for one system and who may need to adapt to another.
I cannot begin to tell you how excited I initially was to write this piece. Plymouth Argyle had gone to Exeter City, and stolen a player from their little rivals on the Somerset border. Exeter made it clear they weren’t best pleased with the situation, and I was more than willing to revel in the hilarity of it all when…Argyle did exactly the same thing when Miron Muslic departed for Schalke.
That has harmed my progress in this piece for a couple of reasons. First of all, it isn’t quite as funny anymore (although it is still at least a bit funny, I want to make that absolutely clear). Perhaps more pertinent though is the fact the man at the centre of it all, Caleb Watts, looks a typical Muslic player on first glance. He’s a battler, and was clearly targeted for how well he’d fit into a Muslic side, with the ex-Argyle head coach doubtless present at the relevant recruitment meetings.
However, I’m still going to enjoy looking at how he may fit in. Argyle’s position in the footballing food chain may be lower than we’d like, but Exeter are down with the plankton. The Pilgrims have swooped in and stolen one of their rivals’ best performers for free, and it’s time to see if he could have a similar impact on Argyle’s own League One campaign.
Battling qualities
I think one of the reasons Argyle were so keen on Watts, and why he’d be the exact profile Muslic would have pushed for, is his willingness to battle. He’s the sort of player who loves to get involved in duels and do the dirty work, making Watts exactly the sort of player to suit the direct, high pressing system Argyle were planning to implement before Muslic’s unhelpful departure.
We can look at Watts’ stats from last season in the crummier half of Devon to explore. For some reason, stats for Exeter’s FA Cup tie with Oxford United aren’t widely available. However, aside from that he played 1,812 for the Grecians last term, and from that sample his numbers for ground duels catch the eye.
He was involved in 247 and won 116, and he’d have ranked in the top four for both metrics at Argyle. His figures per 90 minutes are even better. In terms of duels contested, he was only beaten by Ibrahim Cissoko (most of whose were concentrated in dribbles) and Freddie Issaka (who benefits from a smaller sample size).
| Player | Ground Duels Contested per 90 |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | 14.60 |
| Freddie Issaka | 13.86 |
| Caleb Watts* | 12.27 |
| Caleb Roberts | 11.72 |
| Morgan Whittaker | 10.18 |
| Darko Gyabi | 9.77 |
Meanwhile, when it comes to winning those duels, Cissoko’s is the only man to beat Watts’ figure of 5.76.
| Player | Ground Duels Won per 90 |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | 8.17 |
| Caleb Watts* | 5.76 |
| Darko Gyabi | 5.32 |
| Caleb Roberts | 5.16 |
| Adam Forshaw | 4.98 |
| Joe Edwards | 4.92 |
For me, whoever does take up the role of Argyle’s head coach needs to keep that in mind. They may not opt for exactly the same style as Muslic, but in Watts they’ll have a player willing to run, press and battle. Harnessing that, and giving him the best possible chance to shine, would go a long way to ensuring whichever style they opt for proves successful.
Argyle fans will already be on Watts’ side, given his willingness to ditch their local rivals. Used well, his work rate could bring even more Green Army adulation his way.
Working on the success rate
So, we’ve swiftly established that Watts is the sort of player who will, at the very least, get himself involved in various duels. However, we do need to assess how good he is at actually winning those duels. Yes, he ranks highly for his raw number of duels won, but his success rate isn’t quite as good as I’d hope.
As I mentioned earlier, Watts won 116 of the 247 ground duels he contested for Exeter last season. That amounts to a success rate of 47%, which is below what you’d typically want from a combative midfielder.
Argyle’s total ground duel success rate of 51% actually ranked as high as fifth in the Championship last season, so that may be a little harsh, but Watts’ numbers are disappointing compared to others who featured for the Greens. Joe Edwards, for instance, posted an excellent ground duel success rate of 60% last term. And Adam Forshaw, not exactly known as a battler, reached 59%, comfortably clear of Watts.
Delve deeper, and there are more stats which could be worthy of raising alarm bells. Take tackling and dribbling, both of which contribute to a player’s ground duels. Whilst Watts’ tackle success rate of 72% last season was about average, his dribble success of 41% was slightly below what I’d like to see. And he certainly doesn’t make up for that in the air; his 31% aerial duel success rate was, put simply, not good enough. Argyle were one of the worst teams aerially in the Championship last season, but their team figure of 44% is well above anything Watts managed.
This isn’t to criticise Watts unfairly, merely to manage expectations. Argyle’s new recruit appears to have all the raw essentials to be a key midfield player in a League One side, and whoever the head coach is will appreciate his willingness to do the dirty work. He’s also only 23, and has signed a three-year deal, meaning he has plenty of time to improve and get those success rates to better levels. If he can, I’ve no doubt he’ll be a huge asset to Argyle in the future.
In many ways, I’m reminded of Darko Gyabi. He too was a player who wasn’t shy to get involved in a duel, but often struggled to come away with the ball. That led to many supporters eventually losing patience with the Leeds United loanee. I wouldn’t be surprised if Watts initially plays in a similar way at Home Park; given he’s a permanent signing, I suspect most will be willing to give him a little more time to perfect his art.
Box-to-box potential?
Given Watts’ profile, you may suspect he’s more familiar being utilised as a midfield destroyer. In truth, that hasn’t really been the case. He made 37 appearances for Exeter last season, the majority of which were as an attacking midfielder. It’s another parallel we can draw with Gyabi – they’re both battlers, but both perhaps exhibit their best work when starting from a more advanced position.
That has led me to wondering whether Watts could be an asset to Argyle going forward, as well as in transition as we’ve discussed up to now. In some areas, his numbers are cautiously encouraging. Chiefly, I’d note that he scored four league goals last season, more than any Argyle player aside from Ryan Hardie and Mustapha Bundu.
And some of those were vital goals. Take his exploits emerging from the bench against Rotherham United on opening day, when he scored a late winner, as an example. Argyle will be looking to break down some low blocks this season, and I can definitely see Watts becoming the extra man in the penalty area as he did on that day.
There is also, perhaps surprisingly, a lot to like about his creativity. His average of 0.89 key passes per 90, whilst not groundbreaking, is perfectly acceptable. And when it comes to big chances created, the story is even better. Bundu was the only Argyle player last season to top Watts’ average of 0.30 big chances created per 90.
| Player | Big Chances Created per 90 |
| Mustapha Bundu | 0.35 |
| Caleb Watts* | 0.30 |
| Andre Gray | 0.16 |
| Adam Randell | 0.16 |
| Joe Edwards | 0.16 |
| Tymoteusz Puchacz | 0.16 |
There are some attacking areas where Watts could do with some improvement. For example, his pass completion rate isn’t terrific. Last year it came in at 74% with Gyabi, by means of comparison, posting 81% at a higher level. I certainly don’t think Watts would be at his best in a deep-lying playmaker role for a possession-based side, and I suspect fellow new arrival Jamie Paterson would be better suited to playing a similar role in a more advanced position.
However, Watts certainly has his place. With his skills in transition, and his knack for popping up in the penalty area at the right time, he strikes me as the sort of player who could have an impact in, and between, both boxes. An asset, I’m sure, for any team in any system.
Disciplinary dilemma
We do need to take a moment to touch on Watts’ disciplinary record. He’s been absent for several games through injury, and we’ll touch on those in a moment. However, he’s also contrived to miss a few matches in recent years as the result of suspension. He has, in the eyes of many referees, been a very naughty boy for a while.
Last season, having made 37 Exeter appearances – of which 25 were starts – Watts picked up a grand total of 13 yellow cards. It’s a perversely impressive record, and he managed to pair it with one red, somehow managing to get sent off against Leyton Orient despite emerging from the bench with just 17 minutes remaining. Unsurprisingly, no Argyle player last season came close to having a worse disciplinary record than Watts.
It won’t shock you to know that Watts’ stats for fouls also catch the eye. When I wrote a similar piece on Muhamed Tijani last summer, I noted that he fouls like nobody I’ve seen before. Indeed, that shows up in last season’s numbers too, but Watts is also right up there compared to Argyle’s squad from last term. In short, nobody to have played as many minutes as Watts committed fouls more regularly.
| Player | Fouls per 90 |
| Muhamed Tijani | 3.19 |
| Michael Baidoo | 2.95 |
| Caleb Roberts | 2.34 |
| Caleb Watts* | 2.28 |
| Tegan Finn | 1.91 |
| Adam Forshaw | 1.83 |
It strikes me that Watts may have a Sam Morsy-esque talent. He could prove to be the sort of player fans love when he’s on their team, but absolutely hate when he lines up for the opposition. Perhaps that’s why Exeter’s fan was so incensed when it was announced Watts was leaving. Well, that and the fact he opted to join their superior neighbours.
Regardless, this is something for the new head coach to ponder. Watts clearly demonstrates a commitment to the cause, and plays with fire in his belly. In general, both are positive traits. The new gaffer will just need to harness them into something positive, and ensure Watts doesn’t miss too many games through suspension.
Injury troubles
There are a few hurdles to clear to ensure Watts’ time at Home Park is a success. As I’ve mentioned, the Greens have signed a player who has the raw talent to be excellent, and over the three years of his contract I want to see him come good on the potential he undoubtedly possesses. To do that though, he’ll need to stay generally injury free, something that hasn’t exactly come easily for him in recent years.
Watts first made the mistake of signing for Exeter in September 2023. Immediately, it became apparent that he was struggling to remain fully fit. A major hamstring injury struck quickly, and condemned him to around three months on the sidelines. Then, he came back for a spell of nine minutes against Barnsley, picked up a booking (classic Caleb), and wasn’t seen again for another couple of months. Ultimately, it wouldn’t be until April 2024 that he made his first Exeter start.
The 2024/25 season, whilst far better, was still a little patchy on the fitness front. Across his 37 appearances, his total of 1,865 minutes played only comes to around 20 full matches. And despite impressing enough to alert Argyle of his availability, he only actually played the full 90 minutes twice in an Exeter shirt; against Birmingham City in January and Stockport County in April.
I’d be lying if I said this didn’t leave me concerned. We’re not talking about the finished article here. Watts has quality, but needs to build upon it to be a successful Argyle signing. I know there is an argument that Watts has already been a successful signing, given how much his move has angered those up the road, and I have some sympathy for that argument. But now he’s here, we may as well hope he becomes the best player he possibly can, and that will only come with regular minutes on the field.
I don’t want to see Watts fall into a similar situation to Brendan Galloway, who I’ve long said would be playing at a far higher level right now had his career generally been injury free. I’m desperate to see Watts feature regularly, and dearly hope he doesn’t end up spending most of his time in the treatment room.