As the January window begins, Adam Price brings back his player analysis, this time for Plymouth Argyle’s all time record signing.
After a couple of departures, Plymouth Argyle made their first signing of the winter transfer window late last week. Truthfully, it’s one that has been months in the making.
Michael Baidoo was the man brought through the door, signing on a three-and-a-half-year deal from Swedish top flight side Elfsborg. And this isn’t any old transfer; in fact, it’s one that will go down in Argyle folklore forever more. At around £1.5 million, the deal smashes Argyle’s previous transfer record of £1 million spent on both Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba. No pressure, Michael.
Baidoo was widely considered to be on Argyle’s radar in the summer but, for whatever reason, the deal from Elfsborg didn’t progress before deadline day. Argyle weren’t to be deterred though, and secured their signing within days of the winter window opening. Clearly, this is one the Argyle hierarchy generally believe will make a huge difference; they wouldn’t have waited so long, nor would they have spent so much money, if they weren’t convinced.
Likewise, I am excited by Baidoo’s arrival, though it does come with a couple of caveats. Let me explain more, as we explore what we can expect from Argyle’s record arrival.
The whole-season picture
There is something I feel I need to make clear right off the bat: Plymouth Argyle are signing a player who has just come to the end of a full season. In Sweden, the league campaign lasts from April to November – fairly sensibly, I may suggest, given the potential for winter weather disruption. Elfsborg have played beyond that in the Europa league, but Baidoo hasn’t featured in a competitive game for a month, and hasn’t played a league fixture since October.
I think this ought to be kept in mind for a few reasons. For example, I mentioned earlier that Argyle had been chasing the player since the summer, but the deal couldn’t progress. It’s very possible that this is why; Elfsborg wanted to keep Baidoo for their European qualifying campaign, and would also find it more difficult to replace him mid-season. It’s a sign of how highly they valued the player, given they didn’t want to lose a prized asset at such an important part of the campaign.
More pertinently to Argyle, it should act as a warning that they shouldn’t expect miracles straight away. Building up match fitness will be important and, even though I suspect Baidoo will get plenty of minutes, it’s not something that can happen overnight. We saw exactly the same with Rami Al Hajj; sure, his first start against Luton Town saw him score a wonderful goal, but it ultimately took him a while to get up to the speed of the Championship. Baidoo is an exciting talent, but we’d probably be wise not to expect him to be an immediate saviour.
There’s one more thing to mention: rather than taking numbers from a half-season, we’ll be looking at them for the entirety of the calendar year. That matters for a couple of reasons. First of all, it naturally allows us to paint a clearer picture, with more data points to comfort nerds like myself. It also provides some key contextualisation. I’ve seen it said in some areas that Baidoo has scored 15 goals and has 7 assists so far this season which…isn’t really true. The numbers are correct, but they cover an entire campaign, not just the last few months.
I’m not trying to be a killjoy in this section. Baidoo has posted some exciting numbers, and we’ll get into those very shortly. But let’s just go easy on the lad, at least for now.
Attacking excitement
Throughout the season, there has been a creative void at the heart of Plymouth Argyle. The Greens have had fewer big goalscoring chances than any other team in the league, and they also sit dead last for expected goals. Sure, the tactics of the recently departed Wayne Rooney didn’t help, but it has often felt as though the squad has lacked a player able to unlock the door, or a “Finn Azaz” if you prefer.
Upon signing, it was hoped that Al Hajj would prove to be that type of player. And to his credit, the Swede has recently started showing signs that he can have a serious impact. However, it would be a stretch to claim that he’s had a similar impact to the ex-Aston Villa loanee. So, can Baidoo be the difference maker?
Well, I wouldn’t want to put that level of pressure on the new arrival, but there is a lot in his numbers to admire. Take key passes, for example. For the period we’re looking at, Baidoo completed an average of 1.32 key passes per 90 minutes. That would rank in the top five at Argyle this season, and it’s important to note that Baidoo’s figure is more reliable; given we’re looking at a full season for him, and a half-season for others, his number is less volatile to purple patches or strong individual games.
| Player | Key Passes per 90 |
| Mustapha Bundu | 1.90 |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | 1.55 |
| Rami Al Hajj | 1.54 |
| Adam Randell | 1.37 |
| Michael Baidoo* | 1.32 |
| Darko Gyabi | 1.14 |
I’ve also been impressed by how many games see Baidoo make a key pass. Of the 27 league fixtures he featured in last season, Baidoo made at least one key pass in 18, and was particularly prevalent at the start of the campaign. Whether this trait can be transferred over to the Championship remains to be seen but, to my eye at least, he doesn’t tend to go missing in many games.
Furthermore, Baidoo’s numbers in front of goal complement his creativity nicely. For the data we have available, his average of 0.38 goals per 90 would rank third at Argyle this season, behind only Andre Gray (0.50) and Ibrahim Cissoko (0.42). Meanwhile, Baidoo’s average of 0.52 goal contributions per 90 would rank fourth, behind Gray, Cissoko and Mustapha Bundu. Again, it’s worth noting that Baidoo has maintained this figure despite playing significantly more minutes than those listed.
There will be pressure on Baidoo to perform straight away. As I discussed earlier, some of that may be a little unfair. Nonetheless, it’s easy to see why Argyle fans are excited for his arrival. At the very least, I can’t wait to see him get his debut in English football.
Lucky finishing?
If I haven’t mentioned it enough already, Argyle paid a club-record fee to secure Baidoo’s services. Given some of the numbers, as well as the sheer length of the chase, I can understand why the Greens chose to pull the trigger. Still, if I’m being completely honest, I think Elfsborg have been slightly fortunate to be able to demand such a sum.
In all likelihood, the Swedish side have been able to cash in on Baidoo due to the sheer number of goals he’s scored. And generally speaking, that’s fair; 15 goals across the season, including strikes against Roma and Galatasaray in the Europa League, paints an excellent picture. However, if we look deeper into the numbers, that total number perhaps flatters Baidoo slightly.
Let’s look specifically at his numbers in the league. In last season’s Allsvenskan, Baidoo scored a total of ten goals. A respectable figure for sure, but his underlying data has me worried. Those ten goals came from a post-shot xG of around 5.1, in effect meaning that his total goal tally would have been halved if he’d even been faced with ordinary goalkeeping. He’s benefitted from below average shot-stopping, and has an inflated goal tally beyond what he probably deserves as a result.
I’d be lying if I said this didn’t leave me concerned. In the Championship, Baidoo is unlikely to face goalkeepers who are quite so lenient, and collectively they’re likely to be of a far higher standard than those in the Swedish top flight. In Victor Johannson, you could argue that the Championship even possesses a better Swedish goalkeeper than anyone in the Allsvenskan. It wouldn’t surprise me at all, therefore, if Baidoo struggled to rack up the goals in quite the same way in England.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d be happy to be proved wrong, and to see this trend continuing. A couple of Baidoo’s goals came from outside the box, and it’s possible he may score more because his shooting catches opposition goalkeepers off guard. Nonetheless, I think a dip is more likely, particularly whilst he’s still settling in to a new league.
Fitting everyone in
The final question to ask when considering Baidoo’s arrival is one that has been on the lips of many this week. How exactly will the new head coach fit all of Argyle’s attacking talent into the side?
On the face of it, that’ll come with great difficulty. Primarily, Baidoo looks like he’d flourish in the number 10 role, putting him on a collision course with Al Hajj for a place in the starting 11. Unless, of course, you want to line up with two attacking midfielders, which is fine until you consider where that leaves Morgan Whittaker.
There is an argument that Baidoo could play as the centre forward – he hasn’t been a stranger to the role this season at Elfsborg, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Argyle use him in a ‘false 9’ role every now and then. That would allow both Whittaker and Al Hajj to play, whilst still making room for Cissoko on the wing. But where would that leave Ryan Hardie? And, given the numbers covered earlier, would it be fair or prudent to push Bundu further down the pecking order?
In many ways, I’m quite content with this conundrum. The incoming head coach will have plenty of players at his disposal, all with different talents allowing them to form their own side. And that’s without thinking about the necessity for squad rotation, or injuries that ravaged Argyle so badly in the first half of the season. In any case, whichever formation is preferred by the new gaffer, it’s always better to have two good options in a certain position than none.
I’m very interested to see how Argyle line up, with a significant amount of attacking talent now available. Considering the problems the Pilgrims have faced thus far this season, it’s the nicest possible headache to have.