Adam Price once again takes a look at a new Plymouth Argyle signing, this time running the rule over centre-back Nikola Katic.
So, the January transfer window has been and gone. “Slammed shut,” if you’d prefer. Opinions on Plymouth Argyle’s success in the market vary wildly, and that’s probably a huge understatement. However, there is one aspect that seems to unite many members of the Green Army: most of the new signings have made a good first impression. Debates will rage on about how long it took to get them through the door, and that could yet prove fatal by the end of the season, but the starts have been encouraging.
One of those starts has belonged to Nikola Katic. The 28-year-old centre back joined from Swiss top flight side FC Zurich on loan, and became Argyle’s second signing in a matter of hours on Friday, following the arrival of Maksym Talovierov. Both started in the Pilgrims’ 2-1 victory against West Bromwich Albion, and seemed to have a transformative effect on a defence that had looked shaky and threadbare for weeks.
During the game, it occurred to me that I’d seen Katic play in the flesh before. He has six international caps for Bosnia & Herzegovina, one of which came against England, as he played the full 90 minutes in a friendly up in Newcastle. Luckily, this piece isn’t about my personal experiences, nor will I be basing my views on Katic from that one fixture. Rather, we have a significant amount of data to work with, so let’s take a closer look at Argyle’s latest defensive addition.
Injury context
Before I get deep into the numbers, I want to quickly tackle Katic’s injury record. One of the concerns I saw spreading across social media regarded a particularly serious injury he picked up whilst playing for Rangers in Scotland. That was the dreaded cruciate ligament rupture, and it kept him out of action for over a year. There has been a school of thought that Katic hasn’t been the same since the injury, and has been trying to find his level ever since. In truth though, I’m not particularly concerned.
First of all, I’d note that the injury happened a fair while ago, at least in terms of a footballer’s career. Katic ruptured his ACL in July 2020, over four-and-a-half years ago. I’m not downplaying the seriousness of the injury; it kept him out for the entire 2020/21 season, and he never actually played competitively league football again for Rangers upon his return to football. However, it does mean that he’s had plenty of time to rebuild his fitness and match sharpness in recent years.
Since returning to action in 2021, Katic has made a solid total of 113 competitive club appearances, along with the six caps he’s picked up at international level. And these haven’t just been bit-part appearances, as his spell at Zurich demonstrates. In the last 18 months alone, Katic has played the full 90 minutes in league action on 49 occasions. Whenever he’s missed a game, it’s been through suspension rather than any injury concerns.
That should encourage us for two reasons. First of all, this isn’t a player who many would consider “injury prone.” Yes, he suffered a particularly serious injury at the start of the decade, but Katic’s availability since has been largely excellent. It should also quell any concerns that the injury has stopped him reaching his potential. Sure, Katic may have been destined for even greater things had he not had a year out of the game, but his record in recent times show he’s still capable of performing to a pleasing level.
I fully accept I’ve probably cursed the man now; if Katic loses the use of his legs tomorrow, I’ll probably have to accept some of the blame. In the main though, I think we should be relaxed about the situation. I’ve seen Katic described as an injury risk since he joined, but that’s the case with everybody – I certainly don’t see someone here who is more prone to injury than any other player.
Set piece threat
I’ll tackle some of the defensive numbers a little later in this piece; they, ultimately, will be the determining factor when assessing the success of Katic’s Home Park spell. However, I’d be lying if I said my head hadn’t been turned by some other figures. Excitingly, they suggest Katic could offer some surprising strengths in attack.
I’ve been struck by how threatening Katic can be from set piece situations. And possibly, that’s been influenced by one particularly notable goal he scored during his time at Rangers. In December 2019, Katic nodded home the winner from a corner to win the Old Firm derby. The following season, Rangers beat Celtic to the Scottish Premiership title for the first time ever in a decade.
And that goal for Rangers was far from a one-off. Across the last two seasons, Katic has scored a total of six league goals for Zurich. Five of those were headers, and five of those came from corners alone. As we’re painfully aware, that’s totally at odds with Argyle’s own record. The Greens have scored just two league goals from corners this season – Lewis Gibson’s opener against Middlesbrough and Mustapha Bundu’s late consolation against Swansea City – neither of which was a header directly from the initial delivery.
It should also be said that Katic has the ability to assist from set pieces defensively, which really ought to be his bread and butter given his position. In a total contrast to their bluntness in attack, Argyle have conceded 13 league goals from set pieces this season, more than any other team in the Championship. It surely can’t hurt that they’ll now have a big burly Bosnian in their penalty area to deal with deliveries in the first instance.
It may seem like a small matter, but this is a problem Argyle desperately needs to solve. The Pilgrims’ total set piece xG this season is 5.65, whilst their xG against from set pieces is 11.87. That gives Argyle a net set piece xG of -6.22, with only Stoke City posting a worse figure. Sure, the fact that Argyle have regularly found themselves under pressure, and concede more set pieces than most, contributes to that number. But one cannot overstate the benefits of being just a little better from dead ball situations.
Overall, Katic should go a long way to resolving the situation, and he can have a significant impact at both ends of the field. Get another new signing in Tymoteusz Puchacz to regularly find Katic with his set piece deliveries, and Argyle may just strike gold.
Central importance
As I mentioned earlier, Katic made his debut for Argyle a day after his signing was announced. It came in the Greens’ 2-1 win over West Brom at Home Park; perhaps the fact that it happened to be Argyle’s first win in nearly three months was a coincidence, but it went a long way to building positive fan perceptions around Katic’s arrival.
It quickly became apparent that Katic was lining up in the middle of Argyle’s back three. I was pleased that was the case; based on what I’ve seen in the player’s numbers, I’m suitably convinced that he’ll be at his best when playing as a central centre back.
The first thing I’d note is that the central defender in a back three will be the one expected to contest most of the aerial duels. This is something Katic will consider one of his strengths. His success rate across the last two seasons of 61% isn’t groundbreaking, but it’s certainly above average. And notwithstanding the difference in league quality, nor the difference in sample size, it compares somewhat favourably to Argyle’s other central defensive options this year.
| Player | Aerial Duels Contested | Aerial Duels Won | Success Rate |
| Lewis Gibson | 57 | 37 | 65% |
| Nikola Katic* | 267 | 162 | 61% |
| Victor Palsson | 41 | 24 | 59% |
| Julio Pleguezuelo | 63 | 33 | 52% |
| Brendan Galloway | 46 | 22 | 48% |
| Kornel Szucs | 70 | 33 | 47% |
I believe playing in the middle of a back three will also allow Katic to do what he does best: basic defending. During his time at Zurich, and indeed throughout his career, Katic hasn’t been a flashy player, but he’s put himself in the way of opponents when necessary. In the last two seasons, he’s impressively made an average of 8.93 defensive actions per 90 minutes, and that’s where I expect him to excel at Argyle. He’ll be in the centre of the box to clear crosses, and well placed to throw himself in front of shots.
I’d also mention that, whilst featuring in the middle of a back three plays to Katic’s strengths, it also goes a long way to nullifying his weaknesses. He doesn’t strike me as the sort of player with the pace to deal with the tricky wingers of the Championship, and his recent tackle success of 69% isn’t the best. As a central centre back, he won’t be directly run at as often, and he’ll be able to focus on the simple acts of defending he tends to do very well.
So yes, in my eyes the middle of a back three suits Katic down to the ground. In that sense, he strikes me as the natural upgrade on Victor Palsson. I often wonder what the collective view of Palsson would be had he lined up in his favoured position from day one, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Shape of the defence
With that settled, and the opportunity to add new players now limited to the free agent market, it’s worth taking a look at the state of Argyle’s defence. The back three had been a glaring hole ever since Miron Muslic’s arrival as head coach, and on more than one occasion Argyle have only been able to call upon two fit defenders to impossibly fill those three positions. In short, it needed sorting.
Has it been? Well, without wanting to commit too heavily before seeing how the rest of the season pans out, I like a lot of what I’ve witnessed in recent days.
Katic’s arrival adds significant steel right in the heart of Argyle’s defence. I’d say now that he and Palsson act as the “specialists” in the middle of a back three, with Talovierov and Julio Pleguezuelo more at home on the right. When Kornel Szucs returns from his injury, he’ll be another who can slot quite nicely into this side as a wide centre back.
If I am to be ultra critical, the squad still doesn’t appear to have a fit, specialist left-footed centre back. With Gibson having moved on, and Brendan Galloway suffering his annual season-ending injury, there is nobody who you could claim is a natural fit for the left of Muslic’s back three. Pleguezuelo played there against West Brom, and largely did well, but it’d be a stretch to claim the left side suits him best.
This is where adaptability will be key for the remainder of the campaign. Argyle’s defensive options right now appear exponentially better than they did a fortnight ago, and having Katic in the middle is a key factor. If those around him can slot in where required, and maintain a level of performance wherever they’re deployed, Argyle could find the defensive solidity that seems to have been lacking ever since they were promoted back to the Championship.
It may not keep them up, but it could give them a fighting chance.