It is one of the great pleasures in life to regain something you thought you’d lost. To fully mourn something before somehow, inexplicably, signs of life make the pain subside. Valentine’s Day? I’ve no idea what you mean; I’m talking about the Green Army finally looking like they have their team back under Miron Muslic.
Had Plymouth Argyle only beaten Liverpool this week, it would’ve already been historic. That they followed that up by demolishing Millwall 5-1, lifting themselves off the bottom of the Championship in the process, was remarkable. Victor Palsson’s assist for the third goal on Wednesday night may be my most significant life event of the month, and I bought a house on Tuesday.
Right now, Argyle’s form at Home Park is back to being a key strength. However, the away form has been a constant thorn in the Pilgrims’ side since returning to the second tier. That’ll be the next crucial test for Muslic. His team travel to Ewood Park this weekend with the tough task of facing play-off chasing Blackburn Rovers.
Blackburn are in a curious position. They’re performing far better than many expected this season, but they have just lost manager John Eustace following his peculiar decision to join relegation-threatened Derby County. Still, Rovers got an impressive win against West Bromwich Albion in midweek under the stewardship of caretaker gaffer David Lowe, and they’ll see this as a good opportunity to bolster their ambitions for the season.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Blackburn
5th October 2024: Plymouth Argyle 2 (Obafemi 15’, Whittaker 90+7’) Blackburn Rovers 1 (Rankin-Costello 86’)
For my money, this was by far Argyle’s best performance of the Wayne Rooney era. It was the first and only time I allowed myself to believe the Manchester United legend’s time at Home Park could end up being successful.
To counter the 4-3-3 that had clicked for the Greens in the build-up to the game, Eustace lined Blackburn up in a 4-2-3-1. After a disappointing season last year, Aynsley Pears had hit form and was trusted in goal. Harry Pickering was a natural at left back, but some fitness issues on the other side meant Hayden Carter, probably more a centre back by trade, had to slot in on the right. Still, a strong defensive pairing of Dominic Hyam and Danny Batth looked to make Blackburn tough to break down.
The midfield double pivot included Sondre Tronstad alongside combative captain Lewis Travis, with Tyrhys Dolan lining up as the number 10. Dolan would effectively be in a straight duel with Argyle’s deepest lying midfielder Adam Randell. If successful, he’d be in a position to feed a front three of Ryan Hedges, Makhtar Gueye and Andi Weimann.
At the very least, Blackburn made a decent start, with Dan Grimshaw making a smart save with his foot to steer a Weimann shot wide. However, it wouldn’t take long for Argyle to seize the initiative. A few waves of pressure came to nothing but, with quarter of an hour on the clock, a delicious Morgan Whittaker pass found Ibrahim Cissoko, and he picked out Michael Obafemi with a low ball across the box. The Burnley loanee swept home for his first Argyle goal, and it saw the Greens score first for the second home game in succession.
Argyle were the team in the ascendancy from there. Cissoko had a shot well saved by Pears, whilst Obafemi probably ought to have scored his second, firing wide when in front of goal. Randell, Mustapha Bundu and Joe Edwards would force Pears into further saves, but Argyle couldn’t double their advantage. As so often appears to be the case in this sport, they were punished.
After 85 minutes, Blackburn won a corner. The ball was kept alive, not before Ryan Hardie was clearly fouled, and played back into the area. From there, substitute Joe Rankin-Costello headed agonisingly over Grimshaw and into the far corner of the net. It was completely undeserved, and Rooney was sent off for his protests, but Blackburn were somehow level.
Thank goodness that wasn’t the end of the story. Argyle kept pushing, with Callum Wright almost breaking through, before a dramatic moment in the seventh minute of stoppage time. Randell headed the ball into a dangerous area, before Whittaker nodded it further into the corner of Pears’ goal. Cue wild scenes of celebration for yet another breathtaking moment in front of the Devonport End.
It would have been a travesty had Argyle not won this encounter. They completely out-created Eustace’s side, having 17 shots to Blackburn’s seven, having four big chances to Blackburn’s one, and comfortably winning the xG battle 1.67-0.69. The Greens also shot incredibly well, accumulating a post-shot xG figure of 3.06. Had they faced a goalkeeper who wasn’t in the same rich vein of form as Pears, they’d have probably won the game at a canter.
It turned out to be a false dawn, but at the time this felt like a hugely significant victory. Notwithstanding what was to come, this was a joy to watch.
Similarities
Having just lost a head coach who was performing well above expectations, Blackburn are in a state of limbo. As things stand, Eustace’s replacement isn’t clear – Gary O’Neil is the latest name I’ve heard linked, but it appears as though Lowe will still be in charge for Argyle’s visit.
In a way, that’s helpful for planning. Given the objective is to not rock the boat during the hunt for a permanent replacement, we know caretaker managers tend to maintain a great deal of their predecessor’s style. At Blackburn, that has included the formation. 4-2-3-1 has been the order of the day for much of the campaign, and was Lowe’s shape of choice for the victory over West Brom on Wednesday night.
With the general style, I’d note that Blackburn remain one of the more combative sides in the league. They got into Argyle’s faces last time around, committing double the number of fouls (though, unbelievably, picking up fewer bookings). The numbers would suggest they’re still happy to play in a similar manner.
This season, only two teams – Millwall and Derby County – have made more tackles than Blackburn. Impressively, Rovers have managed this whilst maintaining a strong tackle success figure of 74%, the second-highest number in the Championship. But if they don’t get the ball, they’ll be sure to get the man; only Preston North End have committed more fouls this season than Blackburn’s 398.
Argyle could be helped by one element of that; if they’re fouled consistently, the Greens could get several opportunities from free kicks. It could be significant, because Blackburn haven’t defended set pieces particularly well this season. They didn’t concede directly from one in the reverse fixture, but I remarked in the preview for that game that it was a weakness, and that has remained the case throughout the campaign.
In total, Blackburn have conceded eight league goals from set pieces this term. That isn’t an astronomical figure, but it is one of the higher numbers in the Championship. It also ranks unfavourably when you consider that 26% of the goals Rovers have conceded have come from set pieces.
Argyle haven’t been particularly strong from attacking set pieces this season, or indeed at all since winning promotion to the Championship. However, there are signs that may change now Muslic has taken charge. Nikola Katic scored from a corner against Millwall, and the Greens could be set for more if Hubert Auer has had time to implement his ideas on the training ground. Against Blackburn, that could be vital.
Differences
Whilst the actual shape hasn’t changed, and the style of play will be strikingly similar, I expect many of those taking to the field for Blackburn on Saturday will be unfamiliar to the travelling supporters. Many of those who featured for Rovers in the reverse fixture are unavailable, whilst several winter signings have given a different feel to the side.
For example, in defence Pickering, Batth and Carter are all now long-term absentees. At left back it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Owen Beck, who missed the reverse fixture through suspension after an altercation with Preston’s Milutin Osmajic. And by “altercation,” I mean being bitten on the back of the neck. Beck could feature, but don’t rule out a start for Yuri Ribeiro, who joined Rovers on deadline day.
At the heart of defence I’d expect to see another new signing, Dion Sanderson, directly replacing Batth. And at right back, Callum Brittain would seem the natural replacement for Carter, having started Blackburn’s last eleven in the league.
In midfield, Travis remains available but Tronstad is set to miss out. The smart money would be on John Buckley maintaining his place in the side, but don’t rule out a much more familiar name in Adam Forshaw featuring at some stage. He’s not exactly set the world alight since departing Devon for Lancashire, but a run of games in quick succession could force Blackburn into rotation.
I actually expect the four attacking players to keep their places from the reverse fixture. Lowe may perhaps have been tempted to hand a start to new signings Emmanuel Dennis, Augustus Kargbo or Cauley Woodrow in the centre forward position, but it would seem harsh on Gueye, particularly because he scored both goals in the midweek win over West Brom.
In terms of statistical changes, I’d perhaps look at Blackburn’s shooting. They came into the game at Home Park as some of the best shooters in the league and made the most of it, scoring despite not threatening for large periods of the game. However, it isn’t something they’ve been able to maintain.
Prior to the meeting at Home Park, Blackburn ranked top of the charts for shot accuracy and shot conversion. That’s seen a significant drop – they now rank 11th for shot accuracy and 12th for shot conversion. And the fall-off has manifested in other stats too; before the reverse fixture, Blackburn’s post-shot xG was 5.37 higher than their standard xG, suggesting some sharp shooting. Since that game, their post-shot xG has been 3.72 below their standard xG, suggesting the total opposite.
However, what Blackburn have lacked in shooting, they’ve made up for with their crossing. Going into the reverse fixture, they ranked 22nd across the Championship for their cross completion. Four months later they’ve shot up the rankings, and they’re now statistically the sixth-best crossers in the league.
Katic and Maksym Talovierov have been instrumental for Argyle since their arrivals at Home Park. They’ll both need to be on their game again to deal with the barrage from out wide.
Prediction
Argyle’s recent record against Blackburn is very strong, and they’re facing a team who have recently parted with a head coach they’d rather have kept. That ought to give the Pilgrims confidence, but it’s important to remember they will of course be looking for their first away win in the league this season.
Both teams scored in the reverse fixture, and that was hardly unexpected. However, both teams have also changed since they last met. Blackburn aren’t as clinical as they were at the start of the campaign, whilst Argyle are far less open, and I believe that’ll particularly be the case on the road for the remainder of the season. I think both sides here have the potential, and relevant strengths, to cancel each other out.
With that in mind, for the first time this season I’m going to predict a goalless draw. 0-0.