And breathe. After the chaotic managerial Friday, Adam Price turns his attention to Saturday and the start of Plymouth Argyle’s FA Cup campaign.
I almost get bored of saying it, but it’s been another eventful week to support Plymouth Argyle.
Admittedly, this one has been more about waiting for news than having it thrown in our faces. Since Michael Baidoo arrived last week, Argyle have only made one more signing, with left back Tymoteusza Puchacz coming through the front door. It hasn’t been for the want of trying though, with rumours rife and the small matter of the head coach position to settle. As I start writing, nothing has been decided, but I’ll once again leave a note here later if anything should change before I reach the end (later note – yes! Miron Muslic received his Argyle welcome late on Friday evening).
Whatever happens, it would be a surprise to see the new gaffer in the dugout as soon as this weekend. Granted, it’s not without precedent. Ian Foster took to the touchline a matter of hours after being announced as Argyle’s new head coach ahead of a third-round tie in the FA Cup, but a trip to Premier League Brentford is a little different to hosting League Two basement dwellers Sutton United.
So, Kevin Nancekivell and Joe Edwards are likely to take charge on Saturday, and it promises to be an interesting tie. Given Brentford’s strength at home, Argyle’s troubles away and the relative ability of the two sides, this may seem a foregone conclusion. But this is football, this is the FA Cup, and there’s always a chance. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s hosts.
Style of play
There’s an elephant in the room we need to acknowledge straight off the bat. Whilst Brentford may see the FA Cup as an opportunity to secure major silverware for the first time, they aren’t exactly amongst the favourites as they enter the competition. As such, head coach Thomas Frank would probably argue that they have bigger fish to fry, and I’d consider it more likely than not that he’ll rotate his team as a result.
In many ways, that isn’t necessary a hurdle to our preview. Even if we were to assume that Brentford will take this game incredibly seriously, and put out the strongest possible team available, they’ve used so many formations this season that it’d be impossible to pinpoint how they’d line up. Four at the back has been preferred recently, but three at the back has been thrown in sporadically, with plenty of midfield setups to keep opposing managers guessing.
Perhaps we can take some clues from previous ties in the League Cup this season. In that competition, the Bees had three fixtures against lower league opposition: Colchester United, Leyton Orient and Sheffield Wednesday. In each, Frank deployed a 4-2-3-1. Given the need to dominate the game is different to what Brentford may usually expect in the Premier League, my money would be on that system making an appearance this weekend.
Mark Flekken generally starts in goal, but Icelandic international Hakon Rafn Valdimarsson tends to be trusted as Frank’s cup ‘keeper. In front of him, I’d expect the defence to contain Sepp van den Berg, brother of Middlesbrough player Rav, who can play either in the centre or on the right of a back three or four.
I imagine the centre is more likely, given there are some injury absentees at the heart of Brentford’s defence. Said defence will have a big returnee on the left, with Frank confirming that Rico Henry is set to start a game for the first time since September 2023 after suffering a horrific knee injury against Newcastle United.
We’ve also had confirmation from Frank that Fabio Carvalho, who many will remember started for Hull City on the glorious final day of last season, is likely to feature. I suspect that will be in the number 10 position, but those behind are harder to predict. In cup games this season Frank Onyeka, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Christian Norgaard, Ryan Trevitt and Mathias Jensen have all started in midfield at least once. Trevitt has picked up a knock and is doubtful, but the rest all look like they’ll be available, so it’s anyone’s guess who we’ll see start.
Up front, Kevin Schade has started in the centre forward position in every cup game, and he’s in good form having scored one of five against Southampton last time out. On the flanks, every possible name will probably be recognisable. Stars such as Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa may feature, but I think it’s more likely we’ll see Keane Lewis-Potter and Michael Damsgaard from the start. Both, of course, are more than good enough to cause Argyle issues.
I’ll be interested to see how Brentford play in possession. They are a team who tend to look more comfortable without the ball, using a pacy front line to hit teams on the counter attack. But Argyle aren’t likely to leave that space with an expansive attacking game, and Frank will probably have to find a way to break down a low block. It’s a tall order, but if Argyle manage to defend as they did against Stoke City last week, they could be in business.
Strengths
It’s in attack where Brentford have impressed me most this season. Their goalscoring record has been superb, particularly at home, where they’ve posted numbers that would send shivers down the spine of any travelling supporter.
In the Premier League, Brentford have scored 38 goals across their 20 games this season. That’s a tally beaten by only four sides: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. And 27 of those, or 71% of the total, have come at home, a record even more notable before they scored five in Southampton last week. And it’s that potency which has allowed them to win some classics in front of their own fans.
In just ten league home games this term, Brentford have won 5-3 against Wolverhampton Wanderers, 3-2 against AFC Bournemouth, 4-1 against Leicester City and 4-2 against Newcastle. They also won a frankly bonkers encounter against Ipswich Town, coming back from 2-0 down to beat the ten-man Tractor Boys 4-3, but not before conceding an equaliser with two minutes left on the clock.
Now, this is something they are doing against Premier League defences, some of whom are well established in the top flight. And we are Plymouth Argyle, statistically the worst travellers in the EFL at both ends of the pitch. Worried yet? We probably should be.
Brentford have built their attacking success on the back of supremely accurate shooting. With 214, they rank 17th in the Premier League for shots taken. However, their total of 99 shots on target is enough to rank them eighth. I don’t have shot accuracy statistics for the entirety of the Premier League, but it’s safe to assume that Brentford’s 46% would rank very highly.
There are, of course, individuals in the attack who make the Bees particularly potent. As we know, there’s every chance that they won’t all play, and I’d be gobsmacked if there wasn’t at least a little rotation in Frank’s side. Still, let’s have a quick explore, and see who could provide the biggest threat to Argyle this weekend should they feature.
The first and most obvious name is Mbeumo. A mainstay in the Brentford attack since 2019, he’s regularly been linked with a move to a “big 6” Premier League club, and it’s easy to see why. This season, his tally of 13 goals is enough to rank joint-third in the top flight, whilst he also leads his club’s ranks for shots taken, shot conversion, attempted and completed dribbles and key passes. Should he play a significant number of minutes, I’d be very surprised if he didn’t leave an impression.
Then there’s Wissa. More of a centre forward than a winger, I suspect he’d start if Frank for whatever reason decided not to play Schade. He’s scored ten times this season, putting him joint-seventh in the Premier League goalscoring charts, but he actually has a better goals per 90 minutes figure than Mbeumo (0.69 vs 0.65). Again, he’s likely to be a menace if he gets enough minutes.
And whoever starts, Argyle will have to be on the ball from the off. It became particularly notable earlier in the season that Brentford were scoring a significant number of early goals, with first-minute strikes against Tottenham, West Ham United and Manchester City making a second-minute strike against Wolves feel tardy. The last thing Argyle’s new head coach needs is to go one down within seconds of his tenure.
Weaknesses
There is likely to be significant rotation in Brentford’s ranks in any case, which Argyle of course ought to see as an opportunity. However, even if Frank were to take this game as seriously as a Premier League fixture, he wouldn’t be in a position to put out his absolute first 11. As was the case at Home Park last month, injuries are taking a serious toll on Brentford’s squad.
There are at least seven players who look as though they’ll miss this clash with various knocks. Ben Mee, now 35, is absent with a muscle injury, and defensive partner Ethan Pinnock is also out until at least next month. There are long-term absentees in Josh Dasilva and Aaron Hickey, and they’ll probably be joined in the treatment room by Gustavo Nunes, Igor Thiago and Krisoffer Ajer. And whilst Frank has basically confirmed that Carvalho and Henry will play, neither comes into this game 100% fit.
This may well have been the case anyway, but Brentford’s injuries mean Argyle are bound to face at least a slightly disjointed side. The moves from the hosts won’t be quite as fluid, and the style of defensive performance seen at Stoke could at least take the game deep. Could Argyle then be the team to find space on the break? I can’t rule it out.
In that regard, it’ll also suit the Greens that they’re likely to be the younger of the two teams. Weighted for minutes played, the average age of Argyle’s squad this season has been 24.80, a smidgen above a year younger than Brentford’s average of 25.82. Argyle are unlikely to have much of the ball, they’ll be forced into plenty of running and will probably have to break at pace to create opportunities, but in theory (and perhaps only in theory), it’s a style they should be able to manage.
I’ve also been struck by a few more technical errors in Brentford’s defence. Remember in the last section, where I reeled off a list of impressive results the Bees have achieved at home this season? There’s something you may have noticed: Brentford didn’t keep a clean sheet in any of them.
Defensive errors have had a part to play. Pinnock, for example, has already made three errors leading directly to goals this season, and he’s far from the only culprit. Generally though, Brentford have been far too easy to play through. For example, I’ve been struck by regular goalkeeper Flekken’s numbers. He’s been fine this season, but has been kept remarkably busy, making 89 saves in all. Despite playing significantly more games, only one Championship goalkeeper has posted a higher number.
Those numbers suggest Brentford are the sort of team you should be confident of creating chances against. You may not score, and you may not have the same quality, but you should be able to at least get shots away. Despite the gulf in quality between Brentford and Stoke, I’d be severely disappointed if Argyle don’t beat the 0.08 xG they produced last weekend.
There is also a much more intangible point: Brentford are not used to this type of encounter. In the Premier League, they can happily sit back and aim to hit teams on the counter, but this iteration of Argyle shouldn’t be gifting them space. Given that also, with all respect, this is a bigger game for Argyle than it is for Brentford, we could see a situation where the home crowd and players get a little irked, particularly if they don’t hit the front quickly.
It’s a small advantage, but in a game like this Argyle must take every advantage they can find.
Prediction
Despite the Football Association’s best efforts, the magic of the FA Cup hasn’t been completely extinguished. A bumper away following will travel to West London tomorrow, and there will just be the slightest hope that things could fall in their favour.
Without wanting to put a dampener on things though, that’s far from the most likely outcome. Rotation or not, it’s highly probable that Brentford will have too much for the worst travellers in the country. And given both sides probably feel they have more important battles to come, I suspect the hosts may well get their noses in front and feel able to take their foot off the gas. With that in mind, I’ll settle on 2-0 Brentford.