Just for a moment on Saturday, it looked as though Plymouth Argyle were about to do the unthinkable.
Having already secured a famous win over Liverpool in the FA Cup, the Pilgrims were handed a trip to all-conquering Manchester City for a fifth-round meeting. Given no hope by the pundits, and having been under the cosh for much of the first half, Argyle took a shock lead. Maksym Talovierov, a revelation since arriving at Home Park in January, rose highest to head home, a goal met with scenes I imagine the away end at the Etihad Stadium has never experienced before. It wasn’t to be in the end, but this was a performance and occasion that will live in our minds forever.
Given Argyle’s Championship struggles, the FA Cup has proved an incredibly welcome distraction. However, this won’t be seen as a successful season simply for reaching the fifth round. Despite everything, survival in the second tier is still the primary objective for the campaign. And on that front, Argyle have a huge opportunity to improve their prospects on Tuesday night. Sitting 23rd, the Greens face a trip to Hull City, a side in 21st and well involved in this year’s relegation dogfight.
Whatever your thoughts on priorities, whether you think this game is more or less important than Saturday’s, this is Argyle’s season from here on in. There are 12 games remaining, all league encounters, and Miron Muslic’s Pilgrims must now be laser-focused on survival. They’d do themselves a huge favour by avoiding being mauled by the Tigers in midweek.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Hull
17th August 2024: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Cissoko 52’) Hull City 1 (Coyle 63’)
Having beaten Cheltenham Town in the EFL Cup three days prior, this would be the first home league game of the ill-fated Wayne Rooney era. Coincidentally, it’d also be Argyle’s second successive home league fixture against Hull City, having beaten them in dramatic circumstances on the final day of the 2023/24 season. The stakes weren’t quite as high this time and, if we’re honest, the performance level wasn’t really up to standard either.
Over the summer, Hull had replaced the relatively successful Liam Rosenior with a wildcard in German coach Tim Walter. He arrived in England with his self-declared brand of “heart attack football.” The idea being that, whilst it may not always be perfect, Hull’s goal would be to entertain in an attempt to achieve their goals. At Home Park, Walter intended to enact this by lining up with a 4-1-4-1.
Goalkeeper Ivor Pandur was supported by a defensive line who all had significant experience at Hull City. From right to left, captain Lewie Coyle, Alfie Jones, Sean McLoughlin and Ryan Giles were trusted to provide a solid foundation. Ahead of them, Xavier Simons was perhaps a surprise choice in the deeper midfield role. Jean Michael Seri was still a Hull player at the time of the game, but completed a move to Saudi Arabian side Al-Orobah shortly afterwards, and was only on the bench at Home Park.
The midfield duo consisted of a relative all-rounder in Marvin Mehlem, alongside a much more attacking option in Abdulkadir Omur. Both would be expected to create chances for the front three, flanked by Regan Slater and Liam Millar and spearheaded by Oscar Estupinan, back at Hull at the time having spent much of the previous campaign away on loan.
Evidence of Hull’s “heart attack” style was on show from the off. With 13 minutes on the clock, goalkeeper Pandur gave the ball straight to Darko Gyabi. He slid it to Joe Edwards, who fired a presentable chance wide. Thoughts that may set the tone however proved to be unfounded; Hull grew into the game as the first half went on, with Omur sticking possibly their best chance wide of the post.
The stalemate remained until halftime, but Argyle broke it shortly after the restart. After some slightly loose control from Ryan Hardie, Ibrahim Cissoko picked up a loose ball in the box and fired home for his first Argyle goal. It was nothing more than a half chance, finished smartly and powerfully to beat Pandur at his near post. Cissoko was booked for his celebration, and Argyle were tasked with holding their lead for the remaining 38 minutes.
Alas, they lasted 11. Coyle, for my money Hull’s best player on the day, picked the ball up from his right back position. He easily drove past Adam Forshaw in Argyle’s midfield, before exchanging passes with Millar. Upon receiving the ball back, he curled a shot from the edge of the area on his left foot which found the net via the post. It was an annoyingly good finish from a defender, and Argyle were forced to start again in their pursuit of victory.
Try as they might, the Greens couldn’t break their opponents down for a second time. They were the better side for the rest of the encounter, but didn’t create any genuine openings. Perhaps more than most games at the start of the season, this one blatantly demonstrated Argyle’s desperation for a creative number 10. I guess some things never change.
1-1 it remained, and I think that was a fair reflection. Neither side can honestly say they did enough to win the game and, if I’m being blunt, this was an early indication of two poor teams for this level doing the best they could with no real quality on show. However you read it, it wasn’t the perfect response to losing 4-0 to Sheffield Wednesday on opening day, and Argyle’s wait for a first league victory of the season would be extended.
Similarities
A difficult one. Much has changed at Hull since these sides last met, with Walter dismissed as head coach in favour of Ruben Selles, and they had a very active January in the transfer market. Certainly, there are more differences here than similarities from August’s clash.
To look for continuity, I’d perhaps point towards individuals. Coyle is the obvious example. Having been Hull’s hero in the reverse fixture, he’s continued to be a key component of the side.
He ranks well for his number of defensive actions (188 in total), and only one player on Hull’s books has had more touches this season. Coyle’s total of 23 key passes is also impressive for a defender, with Slater the only Hull player to have made more. Much of Coyle’s good work comes from crosses; he’s attempted and completed more than anyone in Hull’s squad this season, and ranks within the league’s top 20 on both metrics.
This does, I hate to say, leave me concerned. One of Hull’s main threats coming from right back puts an awful lot of pressure on the left of Argyle’s defence. Both Tymoteusz Puchacz and Nathanael Ogbeta, Argyle’s realistic left wing back options, would list going forward as their main strengths. I wouldn’t really trust either to deal with Coyle, and the left-sided centre back will need to cover well. As much as I love the bloke, I don’t expect this to be a game in which Victor Palsson excels in that position.
Jones is the other individual of note. In advance of the reverse fixture, he was the player I picked out as Hull’s key man, and his stock has continued to rise.
Remember when I mentioned that only one player has had more touches than Coyle in Hull’s ranks this season? Jones is that man, and he’s proving particularly important in Selles’ possession-based style. He also leads his side’s ranks for clearances, interceptions and blocks, placing within the league’s top ten for the latter. His side may have struggled, but Jones still looks every inch the quality centre back we’ve seen in the past.
On the other hand, Hull have carried over a few negative aspects from the start of the season. I still see this as a side with a soft underbelly, but in a slightly different way.
The errors may have been cut down under Selles (although not massively, much to my surprise), but there is still a mentality issue throughout the club. Across the campaign, Hull have dropped a total of 18 points from winning positions. Given they’ve only been ahead for 18% of their games this season, the third lowest proportion in the league, that’s massive, and demonstrates they tend useless at holding onto an advantage.
This soft underbelly extends to their expected points performance. Based on xG data, our model suggests Hull ought to have earned 44.28 points this season. Their actual total of 33 means they’re underperforming by 11.28 points. Only two sides in the Championship, Argyle’s relegation zone ‘friends’ Derby County and Luton Town, are underperforming by a larger margin.
Hull haven’t lost all their quality from last season, but they aren’t to be feared. Last season’s play-off chasers haven’t become this season’s relegation battlers by chance.
Differences
Quite fairly, Hull quickly recognised they were going nowhere under Walter’s leadership. As a result, they pulled the trigger at the end of November, deciding to poach Selles from League One Reading around a fortnight later. His arrival, as well as a busy January, has seen a raft of changes in recent weeks.
The style of play is the obvious place to start. In terms of shape, I’d be very surprised if we see a repeat of Walter’s 4-1-4-1 on Tuesday night. The use of a single midfield pivot alongside two more attacking options left Hull far too open, and many sides took advantage of the chasms of space they were provided. Hull may see hosting Argyle as an eminently winnable game but, given the stakes, I’d be surprised if Selles opted for such a risky strategy.
That being said, I can’t guarantee the exact shape we’ll see from Selles’ side. In recent times, he’s played variations of a 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 in different encounters, without really settling on a preferred shape. That’s not a terrific sign, but it does at least make his selection unpredictable for opposition scouts. Four at the back is the standard, but beyond that it’s anyone’s guess.
As I hinted at earlier, the style of play is possession based, which on the face of it isn’t a massive change from what we saw under Walter. Thus far, Hull have actually averaged fewer touches per game with Selles than they did under the German’s stewardship. However, the type of passing is a point of difference. Selles would much prefer that his side keep possession in less dangerous areas, rather than play a speculative pass to beat the press and risk losing the ball.
In terms of personnel, expect to see some major changes. Of the 11 Hull players to have started the game at Home Park, five are no longer at the club, and one is a long-term injury absentee. Meanwhile, since that game the Tigers have brought in ten senior players on permanent deals, with a further six arriving on loan. That gives them a scarcely believable 16 new arrivals to consider ahead of this clash.
Two, Louie Barry and Eliot Matazo, have already picked up serious injuries. They’ll definitely miss this fixture, and could well be absent for the remainder of the campaign. However, I expect to see the likes of Kyle Joseph and Matt Crooks feature, with both trusted in an attacking sense in recent weeks. They may be joined by Leeds United loanee Joe Gelhardt. He’s been linked with Argyle in the past, but never by anyone serious, and he ended up joining Hull in January.
There will also be some new faces in the defensive line. Given Giles’ departure, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McLoughlin switch to left back. That’d make room in the middle for John Egan, an impressive-looking deadline day arrival from Burnley, but we could also see Charlie Hughes make an appearance. He actually joined Hull before the reverse fixture, signing on a permanent deal from Greater Manchester’s smallest club Wigan Athletic, but he was an unused substitute at Home Park.
All those changes may lead one to believe that this will be a completely unfamiliar Hull City side. And that may be true in one sense; I certainly expect this team to be very different to the one Argyle faced in August. That being said, I see plenty of parallels between Selles and Rosenior, particularly in their preferred style of play. If that’s an omen, Argyle should be encouraged – the Greens have an excellent record against Rosenior’s sides.
Prediction
At this stage of the season, a game like this is about as big as it gets. If Argyle win on Tuesday, they’ll go level on points with their opponents, and have momentum entirely on their side. Lose? Well, I wouldn’t say that the survival game was over, but the gap would start to look insurmountable with 11 games left to play.
I can certainly see ways that Hull, as the hosts, could hurt Argyle. But exactly the same is true the other way. Given that, and given everything on the line, I’d suggest we’ll see a cagey game with the same result as the reverse fixture. 1-1.