Pardon me for my laziness, but I’m just going to repeat exactly what I wrote in the Swansea City preview, following Plymouth Argyle’s win over Norwich City. After all, I’m sure you’ll agree the narrative remains practically identical.
“Honestly, what are this team like? Every time it seems like things are done, every time it feels like Plymouth Argyle’s relegation is set to be mathematically finalised, they find a way to give us the faintest glimmer of hope once more.”
Unbelievably, Argyle remain within touching distance of survival with four games to play. Saturday’s 2-1 triumph over Sheffield United, sending Chris “definitely not feeling the pressure” Wilder home with his tail between his legs, provided a huge boost. However, with three points to make up and a dreadful goal difference, one would assume that Argyle will need to win at least one of their two remaining away games this season to complete a great escape.
Enter Middlesbrough. The EFL’s tendency to take the mickey has gone into overdrive this year – long Good Friday journeys are nothing new for the Green Army, but an Easter trip to the far north east is obscene. Still, the Riverside has proved a happy hunting ground for the Pilgrims. Argyle have a 100% record at Middlesbrough’s “new” stadium, and emerged victorious last season in probably their best away performance since returning to the Championship. That this came under Ian Foster makes it even more remarkable.
This time, it’s Miron Muslic’s side making the journey in search of precious points. A win here would surely see everybody start believing.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough
21st December 2024: Plymouth Argyle 3 (Gibson 38’, Gyabi 72’, Bundu 81’) Middlesbrough 3 (Howson 50’, Hackney 77’, Latte Lath 84’)
Following carbon-copy scorelines against Birmingham City and Watford last winter, it appears Argyle love a 3-3 draw at Home Park during the Christmas period. This one was perhaps the most frustrating of the lot, however. In fact, this remains the only time all season where a Championship side has taken the lead three times and still failed to win the game.
Under the stewardship of Michael Carrick, Middlesbrough arrived at Home Park in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Goalkeeper Sol Brynn, only in the team due to regular number one Seny Dieng’s injury, lined up between the posts. He was protected by a central defensive duo of Rav van den Berg and George Edmundson, the latter of whom was on loan from Ipswich Town and would join Boro permanently in January. Neto Borges was the left back, with long-serving Surinamese defender Anfernee Dijksteel on the right.
The deep midfield duo saw Hayden Hackney line up alongside Jonathan Howson, both of whom would score in the second half. Ahead of them, Finn Azaz needed no introduction to the Green Army, but they may have been surprised to see Riley McGree, typically a central midfielder, deployed on the left wing. Exciting Liverpool loanee Ben Doak started on the right, with the line led by Tommy Conway, a summer arrival from Bristol City.
I think Middlesbrough were taken a little by surprise, given how well a struggling Argyle started the game. Darko Gyabi and Ryan Hardie spurned decent opportunities, but the Greens would break the deadlock before half time. Some smart work by Rami Al Hajj set Brendan Galloway free in the penalty area. His cross was flicked on by Hardie, who was almost certainly trying to shoot, before being nodded home at the back post by Lewis Gibson. Argyle were good value for their initiative at the interval.
Things really kicked off in the second half, and regretfully that involved a swift equaliser. Despite Gyabi and Mustapha Bundu both having chances to double the lead, Boro would level through Howson. There was more than a hint of good fortune about the goal, with the 36-year-old’s strike through bodies from a corner creeping past Dan Grimshaw via a deflection.
Nonetheless, the Pilgrims didn’t collapse, and took the lead at the start of a bonkers final 20 minutes. Bundu, playing on the right wing due to an injury to the player who would usually line up in the position, received the ball from Bali Mumba, took advantage of a slip from Edmundson, and crossed for Gyabi. The Leeds United loanee fired into the roof of the net for his first ever senior goal. He’s yet to add a second.
The lead would again be short-lived. Once more there was an element of luck to the goal. Yes, substitute Nathanael Ogbeta was lax defensively, which allowed Hackney in, but his original effort was well saved by Grimshaw. Frustratingly, the ball rebounded kindly for Hackney, who fired home a second equaliser that Middlesbrough had scarcely earned.
Ten minutes remained, but the goalscoring wasn’t nearly complete. Ogbeta made up for his defending four minutes later, playing a glorious cross to Bundu, who tapped in to put Argyle 3-2 up. Alas, they’d again be pegged back once again. Emmanuel Latte Lath, a second-half substitute for Boro, was on hand to volley home from inside the six-yard box after Argyle failed to deal with a corner. 3-3 is how it would remain.
I don’t think it’d be an overstatement to say Argyle were brilliant for large portions of the game. They had six Opta-defined big goalscoring chances, and on xG it remains their most dominant performance of the season, with their figure of 3.56 dwarfing Boro’s 1.91. In reality though, those numbers make the result feel even more annoying. And when you fail to win these sorts of games, it makes the batterings Argyle have suffered all too regularly this year even tougher to take.
Similarities
Carrick retains his position as Middlesbrough head coach, and as such much of the style of play has remained continuous throughout the campaign. That is particularly true when it comes to the shape. Carrick loves his 4-2-3-1, and has used it almost exclusively this season. He’s deviated to a 4-4-2 on just three occasions, presumably to allow Conway to form a strike partnership with loanee Kelechi Iheanacho. Boro have lost all three of those games, and that experiment has now surely run its course.
Retaining control of the ball also remains key to Carrick’s system. Despite Argyle having the better of the game in the reverse fixture, and by far the better chances, it was actually Boro who had the lion’s share of possession at 55%. That’s practically identical to their average possession figure as a whole this season – 56%. It’s the fifth-highest number in the Championship, and one imagines Muslic will be more than happy to let Friday’s hosts keep hold of the ball.
Nonetheless, Carrick’s side do retain an ability to mix things up when required. Their frequency of long passing isn’t huge, but the quality of those passes has been a key strength all season. In the reverse fixture, Middlesbrough’s long pass success rate of 51% dwarfed Argyle’s figure of 35%, and it’s remained consistent – Boro’s long pass success rate of 44% is actually the best figure in the league.
Many of those passes aim to get a striker in behind, either with a defence-splitting through ball or a long pass into the channels. It’s why I mentioned in the reverse fixture’s preview that Hardie would flourish in Carrick’s system.
Only three teams in the league have made more successful through balls than Middlesbrough’s 24, whilst their intention to play on the shoulder of the last defender can be demonstrated by the number of times they’re caught offside. They were only flagged once in the reverse fixture, but they entered the game with one of the highest offside tallies in the league. That’s only grown since, and their total of 93 offsides is now the highest of any Championship side.
I’d also make the point that, whilst a couple of Middlesbrough’s goals in the reverse fixture were fortunate, it’s not out of character for them to score several goals in a game. Their goalscoring record this season speaks for itself. Boro’s tally of 61 league goals this season is bettered only by Leeds (82) and Norwich (63), and they’ll be tough to keep quiet on Friday afternoon.
Going forward, Boro’s strong goalscoring numbers are backed up by some soild xG figures. Their total xG of 60.40 is again the third-highest figure in the league, with only Leeds and this time Coventry City ranking higher. It’s an even brighter picture for Carrick’s side when looking purely at open play xG; their figure of 47.95 is topped only by Leeds’ 63.48.
With that in mind, one cannot escape from the idea that Middlesbrough are underperforming. Indeed, on expected points they rank fifth with 66.32, and are a hair’s breadth behind Sheffield United and Burnley. Their real tally of 60 means they’re underperforming by 6.32 points. It’s not as notable a deficit as they had in advance of the reverse fixture, but only five teams in the league are underperforming to a greater extent.
That’ll give Muslic’s side plenty of hope. On paper, Middlesbrough should have the better of the game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll score the most goals.
Differences
Plenty of teams have had busy January transfer windows. Most, like Argyle, changed head coaches midway through the season, and were using the window to form their squad in the new man’s image. Middlesbrough are slightly different – Carrick has been in the hotseat for the best part of three years now, but they were still particularly active in the winter window.
Some of that has been reactive, with a necessity to replace some high-profile departures. Latte Lath is probably the most notable. Sure, he started on the bench at Home Park, but he’d been a key player for Boro since joining in the summer of 2023. He joined Atlanta United, for a record MLS transfer fee. Meanwhile, Isaiah Jones was sold to Luton Town, and centre back Matt Clarke was loaned to Derby County.
Boro looked to resolve a few problems with their incomings. The most obvious was the goalkeeper situation, where they appear to have clearly upgraded. Yes, Brynn started the reverse fixture in Dieng’s absence, but Dieng was already in poor form before picking up his injury. By loaning in Bournemouth’s Mark Travers, Boro now have a far safer pair of hands they can trust on a weekly basis.
There was also a focus on the left back position. Former Middlesbrough loanee Ryan Giles was reunited with the club, this time borrowed from Hull City. However, he’s never really recovered from scoring a decisive own goal against local rivals Sunderland in February. Since then, Samuel Iling-Junior, probably more of a winger by trade, has lined up as an attacking full back having been loaned from Aston Villa.
The attacking areas weren’t left untouched either. As mentioned earlier, Iheanacho was brought in to replace the departing Latte Lath, signing on another loan deal from Sevilla. However, he’s hardly hit the ground running on Teeside, and I suspect Conway will be trusted to lead the line on Friday. Middlesbrough also signed a right winger, who has yet to score for his new club.
Delving into the numbers, Boro appear to have developed a weakness in the air. Whilst Argyle won most of the duels overall, Carrick’s side had the better of the aerial battle in the reverse fixture, winning 60% of the aerial duels. That’s regressed in recent months. Boro have won fewer aerial duels overall than any other side in the league, whilst only four Championship teams have a lower success rate than their 48%. Given his style, that’ll be music to Muslic’s ears.
I’d also point out that set pieces haven’t played a huge role in Middlesbrough’s season. That may come as a surprise, given they scored twice from corners at Home Park, but they certainly haven’t built on that since. Their set piece xG of 8.51 is the second-lowest in the league – even Argyle rank higher – and the problem is even clearer proportionally. 14% of Boro’s xG has stemmed from set pieces this season, a lower proportion than any other Championship side.
On paper, Boro have retained many of the strengths they had in advance of the reverse fixture. But the elements they actually succeeded with in that game are rare. Optimistically, that ought to give Argyle confidence.
Prediction
After the successful battle with promotion-chasing Sheffield United on Saturday, this is another game where a draw is of no use to either side. I expect both teams to push men forward and, given these sides have already played out a 3-3 draw this season, it’d make sense to predict both teams to score.
Given Argyle have already outplayed Boro once this year, I’m tempted to have faith. However, I just can’t ignore the sheer number of occasions the Greens just haven’t turned up, particularly away from home. Perhaps foolishly, I’m not predicting a battering here, but I do fear that the hosts will have just enough to secure the victory. 2-1 Middlesbrough.