Maybe we ought to take Good Friday’s clash with Middlesbrough as a sign. When Plymouth Argyle play brilliantly away to a promotion-chasing side and still lose under controversial circumstances, maybe it’s time to accept this just isn’t our season.
I could spend hours breaking down events at the Riverside, but we simply haven’t the time. I will say this though: I thought the decision by referee Anthony Backhouse to award the hosts a stoppage time penalty was pathetic. I believe sending off Argyle captain Joe Edwards for his part in the incident was even worse. Boro were a disgrace and, without wanting to sound bitter (and I definitely am), I hope their promotion push falls flat on its face, as their players seemed to at every given opportunity.
Perversely, Argyle may be forced to aid Boro as they pursue their own ambitions. Michael Carrick’s side are in a direct fight for the play-offs with Coventry City, who are the next visitors to Home Park. As pleasant as it would be to see the Teesiders’ dreams swiftly crushed, Argyle’s needs are more important, and we’ve truly reached the endgame for their campaign.
The Greens can ill afford to drop a single point from here. With their goal difference, 47 points may not be enough to survive, and it’s mathematically impossible for Argyle to reach exactly 48. The formula for the final three games is therefore simple: win, win, win. Can they pick up one of those on Easter Monday?
The reverse fixture
Preview: Coventry vs Plymouth Argyle
26th December 2024: Coventry City 4 (Sakamoto 5’, Eccles 20’, 45’, Mason-Clark 39’) Plymouth Argyle 0
Reader, we’ve reached another occasion where I’m forced to relive a harrowing moment in Argyle’s season. The EFL appear to enjoy matching Argyle with Coventry over religious holidays, with the forthcoming fixture a repeat of their meeting on Boxing Day. And this festive meeting brought little in the way of joy.
Frank Lampard was still relatively new to his role as Coventry gaffer, and came into the game with an indifferent record. In advance, his side had just lost 4-1 in their pre-Christmas clash with Portsmouth. Undeterred, Lampard opted to stick with his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation for Argyle’s visit.
The first major decision came in goal. Summer arrival Oliver Dovin initially lost his place after a tricky start, but replacement Brad Collins had a nightmare against Pompey. This led to calls for Lampard to make a change, and he duly obliged. Dovin started against Argyle, and would retain his place for the rest of the season before a recent injury.
There was a much more familiar feel to the back line. From left to right, it consisted of Jake Bidwell, Bobby Thomas, Joel Latibeaudiere and Milan van Ewijk, all of whom were Coventry players last season. It was a similar story in the deep midfield positions, with both Ben Sheaf and Josh Eccles sharing long-term relationships with the Sky Blues.
In the front line, the narrative was different. Right winger Tatsuhiro Sakamoto was a Coventry player last season, but Ephron Mason-Clark on the left was brought in from Peterborough United, and Jack Rudoni signed for big money from Huddersfield Town. And with Haji Wright injured and Ellis Simms not quite hitting last season’s heights at the time, in-form Belgian Norman Bassette started up front.
Immediately, Coventry were on top. Rudoni put a good headed chance wide in the fourth minute, but Sakamoto nodded them in front in the fifth. With Argyle losing the ball in transition, Sheaf picked out the Japanese winger at the back post. He headed towards goal, and the ball crept under Dan Grimshaw and into the net. The Argyle keeper would’ve felt he should have done better, and not for the last time that afternoon.
The one-way traffic continued. Argyle somehow managed to avoid conceding a penalty when shock 16-year-old starter Tegan Finn blatantly fouled Sheaf, but Coventry would double their lead swiftly. This time it was Eccles on the scoresheet; he rifled home from range as Grimshaw appeared to take around three business days to react to the effort.
The pain wasn’t nearly over. Coventry went 3-0 up before the 40-minute mark, with Mason-Clark finishing after a simple ball over the top from Eccles bypassed the Argyle defence. Grimshaw, in fairness, couldn’t do a great deal about that one, but he’ll be disappointed with his role in the fourth. His pass left Adam Randell in all sorts of trouble, the midfielder lost possession, and Grimshaw was again unable to get down to an Eccles strike from outside the area. 4-0.
Argyle nearly made it 4-1, not that it would’ve mattered, just before the break. Finn was the only bright spark for the Greens, and the teenager forced Dovin into a decent stop – the only one he’d make all day – with a left-footed effort. It wasn’t to be, and Argyle would go into the break four goals behind.
Mercifully, the goalscoring was over, but that wasn’t for the want of trying. Grimshaw, to his credit, slightly made up for his abysmal first half with a couple of solid saves, most notably to deny substitute Victor Torp from range. And the game had one more blow for the travelling Green Army; with the clock ticking down, Callum Wright launched into Latibeaudiere with a dangerous tackle. He was rightfully dismissed. A build-up of frustration? Or deliberately looking to make a point about his feelings for the manager? I guess we’ll never know for sure.
A 4-0 defeat then, and one with plenty of repercussions. Grimshaw lost his place in the Argyle goal after this game, Finn put himself in the shop window, and Wayne Rooney would only last one more game before being dismissed. As Christmas cheer goes, this was a particular lowlight.
Similarities
We can’t be certain of a great deal. Lampard remains in post, hardly a surprise given the success his appointment has brought, but he’s been pretty flexible with his shape. Styles of 4-3-3 and systems with three at the back have been deployed, but I suspect a 4-2-3-1 is most likely on Monday. It’s what Lampard has used most recently and, given how well it worked against Argyle last time, I doubt he’ll be in a rush to change anything.
Intelligently, Lampard has looked to build on many of the successful aspects of the Robins era. That includes elements of the style of play. For example, crossing remains a vital part of Coventry’s attacking approach. They entered the reverse fixture with one of the best crossing records in the league, and it’s only improved. No team in the league has completed more crosses, and only Millwall have posted a better cross success rate than Coventry’s 25%.
This has the potential to be a key differential. Argyle are statistically the worst team in the Championship when it comes to crossing, whilst it’s been a key strength for Coventry all year. Whether Nikola Katic is fit to feature, or Victor Palsson keeps his place, Argyle’s central centre back is set to be busy, and will need to have a strong game.
Coventry have also maintained their style whilst out of possession, much preferring to keep their shape rather than committing to tackles. As was the case ahead of the reverse fixture, the Sky Blues have completed fewer tackles than any other team in the Championship. That isn’t because they’re particularly bad at tackling – their tackle success of 71% is about average – but it’s a stylistic choice. Coventry will trust themselves to keep Argyle at arm’s length, rather than run the risk of overcommitting to challenges.
And on paper, Coventry’s style certainly appears to work. In advance of the reverse fixture, Lampard’s side caught my eye with their xG stats, which suggested they ought to be far higher in the league than they were. That remains the case. The stats we have available for this piece include all games up to but not including Good Friday’s fixtures, and in that time Coventry have amassed an expected points total of 70.68. They’re second in that particular ranking, behind only Leeds United.
That’s impressive, but Argyle can still take hope from the stat. Coventry have been performing well in the expected points table all season, and there’s an argument that their rise up the table is simply a result of regression to the mean, rather than anything particularly special Lampard is doing. It should also be noted that they are still underperforming against their expected points total. Not by as much as they were, but it’s an underperformance nonetheless. They’re akin to Middlesbrough in that regard, suggesting they could be one of the sides with a soft underbelly Argyle are fond of facing.
And generally, Coventry still remind me of Middlesbrough in many ways. The way they approach the game, their general quality, and their performances against expectations are all strikingly similar. It’s no surprise they are occupying the same ground in the league table, and we should perhaps expect a similar game to Argyle’s Good Friday outing. Hopefully Coventry stay on their feet a little more.
Differences
There will be personnel changes from Boxing Day’s fixture, though not for the reasons we’ve become familiar with recently. Some players have recovered from injury, some have picked up new knocks, whilst others have dipped in and out of form. Generally though, Coventry had a particularly quiet January transfer window.
That’s not to say they did nothing at all. Their main purchase was one of the most eye-catching Championship transfers of the winter, with Matt Grimes deciding to ditch Swansea City for a move to Coventry. He was often the man who made Swansea tick, and now he’s doing exactly the same for Lampard, already topping Coventry’s ranks for passes attempted (70.37) and completed (64.09) per 90 minutes. Jamie Paterson was also signed as a free agent, but all seven of his appearances thus far have come from the bench.
Elsewhere, Coventry will be forced into a change in goal, with Dovin now a long-term injury absentee. Argyle should see that as a positive. Replacement Collins has been statistically one of the worst shot stoppers in the league this season; there’s a reason why Coventry were so keen to upgrade over the summer by signing Dovin. I hope Argyle have got the message to shoot with regularity.
Further injury absentees for Coventry come in the form of Thomas, Torp and Mason-Clark. All featured in the reverse fixture, with the latter scoring. In terms of replacements, both Wright and Simms are near-certainties to start, whilst Liam Kitching is the likely option to fill the Thomas-shaped hole in the centre of defence. Meanwhile, Jay Dasilva now appears to be favoured over Bidwell at left back.
When looking at the numbers, I’ve noticed a couple of differences in Coventry’s style that weren’t apparent ahead of the reverse fixture. First of all, they’re not running with the ball nearly as much as we’ve seen previously. They’ve now attempted fewer dribbles than any other side in the league, whilst only Portsmouth have completed fewer than Coventry’s 214. They’ll aim to play through Argyle, rather than running at the defence. That’ll be welcome news to whoever the Pilgrims draft in to replace Edwards at right wing back.
I also think there is merit to the argument that Coventry are fighting more under new management. Take goal-line clearances as an example. Their numbers weren’t notable last time, but the Sky Blues have now made seven last-ditch clearances in the league this season, with only Stoke City making more. Perhaps that’s a coincidence; that can’t be ruled out given the volatility of the sample size. But it could also be evidence that Lampard has rejuvenated Coventry, after the Robins era perhaps turned a little stale.
Whatever is true, Coventry will be battling for everything on Monday afternoon. They enjoy playing under this manager, and they have everything to fight for in the play-off race. Miron Muslic will need to ensure his men are up for the scrap.
Prediction
One of these teams has already beaten the other 4-0 this season. Looking at underlying data, one team is flying high in the Championship, whilst the other is last by a long way. On paper, this encounter looks to be a no-contest.
Of course, football isn’t played on paper, and Argyle are a better side now than when they visited Coventry on Boxing Day. Still, it’s more likely than not that Lampard’s side will have the better of the game. Given what we’ve already seen, I wouldn’t be shocked if they found themselves a couple of goals in front.
Still, Argyle are made of sterner stuff under Muslic, and have won more points from losing positions than any other team in the league. We also know that this team tend to give us joy when we least expect it, just when all hope appears to be gone. After falling a couple of goals back, I can foresee Argyle have one of those spells where they blow their opponents away and score on multiple occasions.
I’m going to settle on a 2-2 draw. It wouldn’t be helpful, but it may well entertain.