Is there still a hint of life? Adam Price previews the crunch home match against Derby County.
I take my hat off to everybody who travelled for Plymouth Argyle’s game against Portsmouth in midweek. Argyle have some of the best supporters in the country and, whilst the defeat was inevitable, it was heartening to see that…wait, what?!
Indeed, Miron Muslic’s Pilgrims appear to be on a run where they only win when it’s least expected. On Wednesday night they travelled, having not won away all season, to Fratton Park to face a Portsmouth side in imperious home form. They’d beaten league leaders Leeds United just three days prior, whilst Argyle came into the encounter on the back of a harrowing 3-0 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday. And with all that in mind, Argyle played well and won. I don’t understand it, and I don’t think many others do either.
The surprise victory has the knock-on effect of adding interest to the next fixture. Suddenly, if Argyle can beat Derby County at the weekend, they’ll lift themselves off the bottom of the league, and be right back into the relegation battle when matters seemed settled a matter of days ago. Can they do it? Maybe, but perhaps we should look to downplay expectations. It’s the hope that’s killed us this season, and if we assume once the worst once again we may be pleasantly surprised.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Derby vs Plymouth Argyle
9th November 2024: Derby County 1 (Yates 8’) Plymouth Argyle 1 (Randell 41’)
Argyle came into the one on the back of a narrow victory over Portsmouth. And if that doesn’t sound familiar enough, their clash with Derby was the last before a two-week international break. Many thanks to the EFL fixture computer for making the narrative so predictable.
This would be a return to a former stomping ground for Argyle head coach Wayne Rooney, and he’d be facing what was then Paul Warne’s Derby. Warne won promotion with the Rams in 2023/24, and had made a solid enough start to life in the Championship. Derby sat in lower midtable heading into the game but, given the nature of the league, the relegation zone could hardly be seen as a distant danger.
Warne lined his side up with a 4-1-4-1. The wonderfully named Jacob Widdel Zetterstrom was in goal, and the back four had a familiar figure in Curtis Nelson in the middle. The ex-Argyle captain was partnered by Liverpool loanee Nat Phillips, with Craig Forsyth on the left and Kane Wilson on the right.
In midfield, Ebou Adams was trusted to play a holding role behind Liam Thompson and Kenzo Goudmijn. They’d be entrusted to provide chances for a dangerous-looking front three. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing played on the left, Kayden Jackson was on the right, and the attack was led by Jerry Yates, an intelligent pick up over the summer on loan from Swansea City.
Going into the encounter, Derby were posting strong numbers for set piece goals in the early part of the campaign. As such, I was particularly annoyed that Argyle gave away a couple of cheap early corners, and it was no surprise to see the Pilgrims punished. The Greens made a hash of clearing a set piece, with Callum Wright heading the ball up rather than out, allowing Yates to smash it past Dan Grimshaw with an overhead kick. Undoubtedly, it was an outstanding finish, but the goal was still a poor one to concede from an Argyle standpoint.
Rooney’s side didn’t particularly use the early goal as a wake-up call. Instead, Derby continued to push forward, could easily have doubled their advantage through Thompson, and saw another couple of chances from corners go abegging. Therefore, it came as quite a pleasant surprise when the tide turned just before half time.
With 41 minutes on the clock, Argyle were awarded a free kick around 30 yards from goal. It was quite central, but looked a little too far out to shoot. Adam Randell decided to hit it though, and he hit it well. Still, Zetterstrom would probably have made a comfortable save had the ball not taken a crucial deflection off Yates in the wall. From there, it flew into the back of the net, sending the Pride Park away end into raptures. Argyle, through their captain on the day, had finally scored their second away league goal of the season.
That made it 1-1 at half time, and in truth the second period didn’t offer a great deal. Perhaps the most remarkable moment came after 62 minutes, when Darko Gyabi lost the ball in the Derby half to Yates. Still behind the halfway line, Yates opted to shoot, and did so with great power and accuracy. Grimshaw, to his credit, managed to claw the ball out from under his crossbar and out for a corner. Had it gone in, Yates may have contended for the best brace in football history having already scored an overhead kick.
Chances for a winner though were few and far between. Wright had a deflected effort easily pouched by Zetterstrom, whilst Grimshaw kept out a late Nelson header on his goalline. Ultimately, nobody would break through, and the match would remain level at the full-time whistle.
The statistics from the game matched with the general feel that it was dull. Across the 90 minutes, Argyle mustered just 0.14 xG, sparking suggestions they were lucky to escape with a point. Given the Greens did score though, did Derby do enough to win either? Their total xG was only 1.09, less than half of which came from open play, and I don’t think a draw was a particularly egregious outcome.
At the time, the point certainly seemed to suit Argyle more than their hosts. I think the opposite would certainly be true at Home Park this weekend.
Similarities
Warne may have departed as manager, replaced by John Eustace after some protracted negotiations with Blackburn Rovers, but there are still several familiar faces in the playing squad. Indeed, it’s my duty to announce that Yates, Argyle’s chief tormentor in the reverse fixture, is present, fit and available to start against the Pilgrims once more.
Those who only saw him play in November’s fixture may assume he’s having a barnstorming campaign. And don’t get me wrong, it’s certainly not been bad. Seven goals and four assists in a team fighting relegation is absolutely fine, but not groundbreaking. For the stats we have available, which for this piece include games up to but not including the recent midweek fixtures, his xG total of 7.92 barely brushes into the league’s top 20. Still, if he plays anything like he did last time around, Argyle will struggle to keep him quiet.
As a more general point, set pieces remain key to Derby’s approach going forward. I mentioned their dead ball prowess in the preview before the sides last met and, in keeping with their general negative inevitability this season, Argyle conceded from a set piece within eight minutes. To this day, whichever way you cut it, Derby’s set piece numbers are a significant strength.
Across the league campaign, Derby have scored a total of 15 goals from various set piece situations. That accounts for just under 41% of the total goals they’ve scored. In both metrics, only Luton Town have been more reliant on set pieces in the Championship. Corners in particular have remained a powerful weapon for Derby; 4.4% of the corners they’ve taken have resulted in goals this season, the second-highest figure in the league. Only Oxford United (4.7%) rank higher.
In a way, corners simply must be the primary method of set piece goals for the Rams, because they don’t tend to win a great deal of free kicks. Before the reverse fixture, I mentioned that Derby are one of the least fouled teams in the league, and that remains the case today. Collectively they’ve been fouled 326 times this season, with only Stoke City (322) winning free kicks less frequently. Argyle could do with continuing this trend, and limiting Derby’s opportunities to play the ball into a packed penalty area.
Finally, I’d point out that Derby are carrying over some strengths when out of possession. They went into the last game as statistically some of the best tacklers in the league. Tackles, hand-in-hand with ground duels, remain important to Eustace’s side. They’ve made 689 tackles this season, the second-highest number in the league behind only Millwall, whilst their tackle success figure of 73% ranks within the top five.
Admittedly, direct play has been the order of the day under Muslic, and there hasn’t really been an appetite to run at defences from deep positions. Derby’s strengths with the ball on the floor could therefore be negated, but they’re still there if the game situation demands.
Differences
The most notable change came on the sideline, with Eustace replacing Warne in mid-February. The decision to leave promotion-chasing Blackburn for relegation-threatened Derby raised numerous eyebrows, and losing 4-0 to Queens Park Rangers in his opening game for the Rams drew ridicule. He’s picked up since though, securing a satisfying victory against Blackburn before following up with a 2-0 win over in-form Coventry. Blackburn also appear to have dropped off since, demonstrating Eustace’s value as a manager.
Right now, I can’t pinpoint any obvious changes to the style of play. That’s perhaps because Warne liked to tinker, and it was difficult to nail down how the style acted before his departure and Eustace’s arrival. It’s also therefore difficult to ascertain whether Derby’s recent winning run can be put down to a new manager bounce, or something materially different. The change in the dugout has had the desired effect though; Derby were sleepwalking towards relegation under Warne, and they’re now right in the fight.
Eustace hasn’t had everything his own way. He’s had to think on the fly, with a number of players who featured in the reverse fixture set to miss this one through injury. That includes Nelson, who will miss the rest of the season (and probably part of the next) with a cruciate ligament rupture. Also on the treatment table we’ll find Mendez-Laing, who started the reverse fixture, Ben Osborn and Dajaune brown, who emerged from the bench that day, as well as several others who haven’t been able to play in either game for whatever reason.
Combine their injury crisis with their previous league form, and it’s no surprise that Derby have been busy in the transfer market. Centre backs Sondre Langas and Matt Clarke were important signings, with the latter arriving on loan from Middlesbrough. Langas is another injury doubt for this one, but I’d expect Clarke to easily replace Nelson. Striker Lars-Jorgen Salvesen was also brought in, and he was joined by experienced free agents Kemar Roofe and Jeff Hendrick.
Perhaps the most important arrival, however, has been Harrison Armstrong. The 18-year-old was brought in on loan from Everton, and initially struggled to force his way into the side. However, he’s started the last two, and slotted perfectly into Eustace’s midfield. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Derby have won both games in which Armstrong has started, and he’s surely earned another start at Home Park.
With regards to the numbers, I’m going to touch on set pieces again. Twice now, I’ve waxed lyrical about how well Derby make the most of attacking set pieces. However, their numbers for defending them weren’t quite as strong. Indeed, they did technically concede from a set piece situation (albeit unfortunately, of course) in the reverse fixture from Randell’s free kick. That’s changed since.
If anything, Derby could now consider themselves one of the best teams in the league at defending set pieces. Only 1.1% of the corners they’ve faced this season have resulted in goals, the lowest such figure in the division. Meanwhile, across the campaign, only 14% of the goals Derby have conceded have stemmed from set piece situations, with just two Championship teams posting a lower number.
If Argyle score from a set piece this weekend, and manage to keep Derby out at the other end, Hubert Auer will certainly have earned his money.
Prediction
Every single time I give up on this Argyle team, they deliver something unexpected. I’m tempted to predict a defeat here for that alone, and attempt to have the Greens reverse psychologise themselves to safety. Alas, the football Gods are probably onto me now, so I’ll try to be as objective as possible.
Despite Argyle’s win in midweek, I’d argue Derby come into this game on more of a high after successive victories. However, I’d also note that the Rams haven’t won away in the league since early November. They may see a trip to Home Park as an ideal opportunity to put that right, but factors could once more balance themselves out. I’ll therefore go for a score I’ve been plumping for a lot lately: 1-1.