Some of you may already know, but I’ve been feeling under the weather this week. I thank you in advance for your sympathies. It’s been a genuine illness too, though I’d forgive you for thinking I’d just become sick of how Plymouth Argyle’s season has concluded.
Although it isn’t “officially official” right now, Argyle have been relegated. They were relegated despite winning at the weekend, defeating Preston North End 2-1 at Deepdale for just their second away league win all season. In fact, the Greens were relegated before kick off in Lancashire, with Coventry City goalkeeper Brad Collins having a brain fade, and Luis Binks butchering a goal line clearance 180 miles away in Luton.
The fact the Greens are still technically alive extends an extraordinary record. It’s now 11 years since the Green Army have been able to attend an end-of-season fixture with nothing on the line. All those games and, with fans present at least, not a single dead rubber. No wonder supporting this football club seems to double one’s rate of aging.
The football Gods may have mercy on us one day, but not yet. Whilst Argyle’s status is all but confirmed, their visitors Leeds United still have plenty on the line. They sit top of the league, ahead of Burnley only on goal difference, and will secure the Championship title with a win at Home Park.
If Argyle win 7-0, and Luton lose 7-0 away to West Bromwich Albion, the Greens would save themselves. And I will say this: I can definitely picture a 7-0 scoreline in Devon this weekend…just not in the way most of us would hope.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Leeds vs Plymouth Argyle
2nd November 2024: Leeds United 3 (James 30’, Piroe 33’, Aaronson 38’) Plymouth Argyle 0
One more opportunity to relive a harrowing day in Argyle’s campaign before it draws to a close? Why not? Argyle travelled to Elland Road with a disgusting away record, leading to thoughts of record-breaking scorelines being discussed in the build-up to the game. Mercifully, that didn’t come to fruition, but the manner of Argyle’s defeat in November will never be forgotten.
Leeds, as they have exclusively under Daniel Farke this season, lined up with a 4-2-3-1. Goalkeeper Illan Meslier was (and still is) much-maligned, but he wasn’t set to have a busy afternoon. In front of him was a back four consisting of, from left to right, Junior Firpo, Pascal Struijk, Joe Rodon and Sam Byram.
Midfield duo Joe Rothwell and Ao Tanaka wouldn’t have been Leeds’ first-choice heading into the campaign. However, injuries made it a necessity, and in fairness both had stepped into their roles admirably. Further ahead, Brenden Aaronson is an unusual figure at Elland Road. His Leeds career appeared to be over after he was loaned to Union Berlin following relegation from the Premier League, but he’s back in the fold this year, and was back in the starting lineup as the number 10.
As you’d expect, Leeds had significant firepower in their front line. Willy Gnonto was getting what you’d perhaps consider a rare start on the left, with Wales international Dan James lining up on the right. Spearheading the attack was Joel Piroe, who remains this season’s Championship top goalscorer to this day.
Leeds promptly got to work trying to break down an Argyle side that Wayne Rooney had lined up, genuinely, with a back six. And to be fair, it did take the hosts some time to adapt. Piroe had a decent early opportunity, and later hit the woodwork from an offside position. But for a little while at least, Argyle were doing a decent job of keeping their high-flying opponents at arm’s length. Then, the 30-minute mark arrived.
Leeds won a corner, which was initially headed clear by Kornel Szucs. From there, Gnonto fed the ball to James, who seemed to get an awkward shot away from around 25 yards under pressure. As it happened, it was perfectly placed, ballooning past Dan Grimshaw and into the top corner. Really, it was an unfortunate way to fall behind. Not that the goal was lucky – it was superb – but Argyle could do nothing about it, and their gameplan had suddenly been torn apart.
It sparked a collapse, with Leeds doubling their advantage within three minutes. This one, the Argyle defence could have done plenty to stop. They had numerous chances to clear but, after a spot of pinball, Piroe was on hand in the six-yard box to poke past Grimshaw. 2-0, and it’d soon be three. Again it was an ugly watch, as Piroe’s attempted backheel deflected into the path of Aaronson to fire home. From doing well to be level, Argyle were three behind within eight minutes.
3-0 would be the half time score, and I’m sure you’ll forgive me for saying I missed the start of the second period, much preferring to enjoy the hospitality of the concourse bar until the hour mark. And, massive tangent alert. I recently (when 5-0 down at home to Burnley) learnt that Argyle don’t offer a similar service, which seems a little sadistic. I’m glad Leeds had us covered on that front.
Nonetheless, I reemerged and little had changed. No more goals, but Leeds were still in total command. They took the opportunity to give minutes to youngsters Sam Chambers and Charlie Crew, neither of whom have been seen in a Leeds shirt again this season, and it was clear they were happy to take their foot off the pedal. I get the impression Farke’s side could have scored many more had they desired, but 3-0 was the final score.
Damningly, Argyle went through the entire game without having a single shot (Leeds had 23). Since Argyle won promotion to the second tier in 2023, this remains the only time a team has registered zero shots in ANY Championship game. And given I’ve only kept these stats since Argyle were promoted, one would assume this record extends far beyond that two-year period.
Whatever you think of the tactics, whether you believe Rooney was justified in going ultra-defensive, this was not a performance of a team who felt they belonged at this level. An eight-minute period settled the contest, but this was a shambles from start to finish. Get a single shot away in anger this weekend, and Argyle will already have improved.
Similarities
One of the best things Leeds have done this season, and one of the major reasons they’re in contention for the Championship title, has been keeping positive continuity going throughout the campaign. Whilst some teams change head coaches, or use the January transfer window to push themselves towards their goals, Leeds have kept their manager, kept their style, and kept winning.
The main headline is that Leeds didn’t make a single signing in the winter window, which I believe is unique amongst Championship teams. They did bring in 34-year-old free agent Joshua Guilavogui during their midfield injury crisis, and he actually made his debut against Argyle. However, he’s only ever appeared from the bench, and there wasn’t a single addition made across January.
Having a consistently identical squad has allowed Farke to keep his preferred style in place. As I mentioned earlier, he’s stuck with his 4-2-3-1 all the way through the campaign, and he’s just as focussed on possession as he’s ever been. Leeds have had more touches, whilst attempting and completing more passes, than any other team in the league, whilst they also top the charts for their average possession figure of 61%. Farke’s side had 79% of the ball in the reverse fixture – they may even have an eye on topping that this weekend.
Unlike with some teams we’ve assessed, this isn’t passing the ball for the sake of passing. Leeds have purpose to their possession and, just as it was ahead of November’s game, its effect is demonstrable in so many areas, and applies at both ends of the field.
In the most basic terms, Leeds have had more shots than any team in the league, their total of 734 dwarfing the figure of Middlesbrough (646) in second place. Argyle have taken 405. It’s a similar story in defence. Granted, no other team has failed to take a single shot against Leeds, but it’s not unusual for them to face just a few. 302 shots have been taken against Leeds this season, a lower number of shots against than any other Championship team.
Unsurprisingly, that is reflected when we delve into xG data, with Leeds having the highest xG for (88.86) and lowest xG against (30.40) of any Championship team. It gives them a frankly astronomical expected points total of 98.85. Nobody else comes close. Burnley, second in the expected points table, sit on 74.29, almost 25 behind their title rivals.
We need to be acutely aware of this when assessing Argyle’s performance. Yes, the gulf in class between the sides in the reverse fixture was uniquely remarkable, but it is far from uncommon for Leeds to outplay their opponents. In truth, they’ve been doing it for most of the season. Statistically, they’ve been by far the best side in the league, and they’ll be out to prove that by winning the title.
A 7-0 Leeds win would see them hit 100 points with 100 goals scored. I’d hate to be an Argyle defender if the visitors start to extend their lead this weekend.
Differences
Perhaps the biggest difference between this game and the early-November fixture is the league situation. Obviously, most of us knew that Argyle would be fighting relegation, and Leeds would be competing for promotion, before the game at Elland Road. We could have confidently made that prediction before the season even started. The picture, however, is far clearer today. For Argyle: you’re already relegated. For Leeds: one win, and the title is yours.
That dynamic makes things feel very different to the reverse fixture. Argyle won’t line up with six defenders again; with nothing to play for, why would they? It also means, quite blatantly, the pressure is all on Leeds. I’m sure they’re tired of hearing it – and they’ve certainly handled it better than, say, Chris Wilder – but it’s true. And pressure has been known to do funny things to Leeds – Joy Division’s Love Will Tear Us Apart doesn’t get an uptick in streams at this time of year by chance.
The nature of a late-season game will impact Argyle too. Without wanting to read too much into Miron Muslic’s Thursday press conference, it seems clear many people will be representing Argyle for the final time this weekend. There will be plenty keen to go out on a high, and even those remaining at Home Park may wish to put in a strong performance to say goodbye to the Championship. That could easily have an effect.
In terms of personnel alterations, there is predictably little to report given Leeds’ quiet January transfer window. However, I’d still expect a few changes from November’s lineup. Struijk, Rothwell and James are all injury doubts, with none featuring in Leeds’ 4-0 win over Bristol City on Monday night. Their absences are compensated by the return of Ethan Ampadu and Ilia Gruev, both of whom missed the reverse fixture through injury. And in-form Jayden Bogle, who was suspended for the Elland Road clash, is likely to come in at right back.
Perhaps the most notable change, however, comes in goal. After a series of…let’s call them “iffy” performances, Farke opted to drop Meslier in favour of Karl Darlow at the start of last month. It worked. Darlow has been relatively untroubled, but Meslier’s numbers and regularity of errors were too much to ignore. I’d make a bold claim that Leeds would have broken points records if they had James Trafford, whilst Burnley would have been fighting for a play-off place if they had Meslier.
Statistically, there isn’t much to report in this section. Leeds were the best team in the league ahead of the reverse fixture, and they’re the best team in the league now. There is just one thing that has stood out: suddenly, they appear to have developed a knack for scoring set piece goals.
Leeds technically scored from a set piece in the reverse fixture, with James’ effort coming from the second phase of a corner. However, that was only their second set piece goal of the season. Fast forward to the present day, and Leeds have now scored 11 set piece goals, all from corner situations. Tanaka was the latest to profit, breaking the deadlock against Bristol City from a dead-ball routine.
Argyle, and particularly Hubert Auer, need to have done their homework. Preston scored from the second phase of a set piece last weekend, and had an xG of 1.31 from set pieces alone. Leeds will bring more…of a threat from these situations.
Prediction
The final day can do funny things. Not funny enough to keep Argyle in the division, I grant you, but it can make things tricky for the teams with something to play for. Leeds may, pretty reasonably, expect to canter towards the title at an already relegated Argyle, but I suspect they won’t have everything their own way.
My instinct is they’ll just about do it. Not easily, and I don’t honestly believe they’ll score the seven goals they need to reach a century for the campaign, but they have enough quality about them to sweep aside any final day demons lingering around. 2-1 Leeds.
As for my prediction of what’ll happen after the final whistle? God only knows.