Right, where on Earth do you start with this one?
On Sunday afternoon, Plymouth Argyle will play Liverpool in the fourth round of the FA Cup. The tie is a reward for Argyle’s superb 1-0 win away at Brentford in January, and it’s promises to be a wonderful occasion. A deep run in the cup may not sit top of head coach Miron Muslic’s priorities list, but this will act as an incredibly welcome distraction, giving Argyle as a club the chance to shine in front of the nation’s eyes.
Usually, in these preview pieces, I like to think I can shine a light on factors of Argyle’s opponents that usually remain in the dark. That’s a little harder this time around. I don’t want to make broad assumptions, but I’m fairly sure most people know who Liverpool are and what they’re all about. And unless you’ve been living under a footballing rock for the last few years, you’ll be well aware that they’re actually quite good.
Still, Argyle can’t be seen to shy away from a challenge this weekend, and therefore nor shall I. So, let’s take a look at Liverpool, and assess what Arne Slot’s Premier League table toppers may offer at Home Park.
Style of play
It won’t surprise you to know that there is a ton of information about Liverpool online. In an effort to cut through the noise, I’ve drilled down on the games for which full stats are available. That, in effect, includes all of the Reds’ games in the league, Champions League and FA Cup, giving us a handy sample size of 32 fixtures to draw our conclusions.
Across those 32 games, Slot has generally lined up with a 4-2-3-1. That marks a subtle change from the preferred style of predecessor Jurgen Klopp. Whilst Klopp would enjoy having an industrious midfield supported by a classic ‘number 6’ such as Fabinho, Slot tends to deploy a double pivot. In league games, his preferred choices tend to be Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch, with Dominik Szoboszlai a key creator in a more advanced position.
Now, I’ll take this opportunity to mention an obvious fact: Liverpool will not be at full strength this weekend. They’re still in the hunt for a potential quadruple, they played a League Cup semi final on Thursday night, and they have the Merseyside Derby coming up in midweek. It’s no disrespect to Argyle that Slot will view this as a welcome opportunity to rotate his side.
Szoboszlai started Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Accrington Stanley in round three, but I don’t expect him to feature given he played the full 90 against Spurs. It’s possibly more likely that Diogo Jota will line up as the number 10, making the shape resemble a 4-4-2 at times. In the deeper midfield positions, Trey Nyoni’s 98 may break records as the highest shirt number seen at Home Park, whilst an injury to Tyler Morton means I’d expect to see James McConnell trusted from the start.
In the front line, I find it highly improbable that we’ll see superstar Mohamed Salah feature. Rather, Harvey Elliott feels a natural choice to start on the right, though he could move into midfield. That’d see Jota play as the centre forward, and make room on the right for Federico Chiesa. On the left, frightfully talented 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha started against Accrington, and didn’t feature for Liverpool’s academy this week. I suspect that’s with a view to him featuring for the first team again in Devon.
In defence, Trent Alexander-Arnold has been ruled out by Slot, so Conor Bradley is almost certain to start as the right back. In the middle, Jarell Quansah feels like a natural starter, and he’ll probably be partnered by either converted midfielder Wataru Endo or 18-year-old Amara Nallo, the latter of whom was sent off four minutes into his senior debut. Kostas Tsimikas is likely to feature at left back, with Andy Robertson rested.
That just leaves the goalkeeper. It’s not always the case, but in cup competitions Liverpool have generally tended to prefer Caoimhin Kelleher to Alisson. Mind you, neither choice is likely to provide Argyle with any respite. They’ve both stopped shots superbly this term, but when looking at prevented rates from post-shot xG data, Kelleher actually has the edge on the Brazilian international (1.33 vs 1.12).
Slot hasn’t arrived at Anfield and totally reformed the style of play. Chiesa is the only player Liverpool have signed since his arrival, and it makes sense that he’s looked to make the most of Klopp’s squad with a fairly familiar style. What Slot has done, so successfully thus far, is refine that style.
This isn’t exactly the “heavy metal football” Klopp brought to the country around a decade ago. Liverpool can still press well, and they can still be remarkably deadly on the counter attack, but they’ve also developed a little more patience. Under Slot, greater emphasis has been placed on build-up play, and getting the ball into the best possible position before shooting. As most Premier League sides have found out to their detriment, it tends to work.
Strengths
I’ll try not to insult anybody’s intelligence in this section. You don’t need me to sit here and tell you that the team who sit top of the Premier League, who recently finished top of the tree in the Champions League’s new league phase, and who made yet another cup final just three days before this game has several strengths all over the field.
If I had to pick something specific that the Reds do particularly excellently, I’d point towards their creativity. There has been a narrative throughout national media that Slot’s best work has come through tightening up Liverpool’s defence after the thrilling chaos of the Klopp era. I do agree that Liverpool do seem a little more controlled without the ball this season, but they’ve impressed me mightily when they do have possession.
Across the 32 games we’re accounting for, Liverpool’s players have collectively created 99 big goalscoring chances. To put that into perspective, Leeds United, the most creative team in the Championship, have created an average of 2.21 big chances per game this season. Liverpool’s figure equates to an astonishing 3.09 per game. Having players like Salah and Alexander-Arnold starting regularly helps that figure, but there has been a collective effort throughout the side to create opportunities for their teammates.
Unsurprisingly, that’s reflected in their goalscoring numbers. Across the 32 games in our sample, Liverpool have scored at least once from open play in 28. And of the four where that doesn’t apply, they’ve only lost one.
Liverpool tend to use their strong dribbling attributes to get into dangerous positions from which they can create chances. Led by the likes of Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo, the Reds have completed an average of 8.16 dribbles per game this season, which is again one of the highest figures Argyle are likely to see all season. Whoever starts, I suspect they’ll be encouraged to run at the Argyle defence this weekend.
Unsurprisingly, there’s plenty more to mention. Liverpool’s shot accuracy figure of 40% is very healthy, as is their shot conversion rate of 14%. Again, no team in Argyle’s league has been more clinical in front of goal this season. Their aerial duel success of 53% is also strong, and totally at odds with Argyle’s own deficiencies in the air. Hopefully, that’s something Muslic has been working on addressing.
I could very easily go on. Instead, therefore, I’m going to try and cut things short, and cheat a little for my final point in this section. As much as I imagine he won’t be featuring this weekend, I couldn’t describe Liverpool’s strengths without mentioning the outstanding talents of Mo Salah.
The Egyptian’s numbers this season have been dumbfounding wherever you look. A goal and an assist against Spurs on Thursday took him to 26 goals and 18 assists in all competitions this season. A total of 44 goal contributions for the campaign in early February is nothing short of extraordinary.
It also isn’t as if Salah is on a lucky run of form, where you’d expect those numbers to dry up. He’s currently only overperforming against his total xG figure to the tune of 1.25 – comparatively, Championship top scorer Borja Sainz is overperforming his xG by 4.79. Salah has also missed 20 big chances this season, more than any other Liverpool player (yep, including Darwin Nunez). If he was always as clinical as we know he can be, he could transform an outstanding season into one that’d be spoken about for decades.
I’d be very surprised if Salah featured this weekend. And I’d be even more surprised if he featured and didn’t score at least once.
Weaknesses
Wish me luck.
It’s obviously a far more difficult task than the previous section. Liverpool aren’t where they are by accident; a team many would consider to be the best in the world at present don’t have significant weaknesses in many areas.
So, how about I make the first one of these a cop out? It doesn’t just apply to Liverpool, but any team rotating their side heavily can expect to lose a little sharpness. Whoever starts, Slot’s team will have an abundance of quality, and each individual member would probably comfortably make it into Argyle’s first choice eleven, but they won’t have played together often. Patterns of play, and an understanding of where each player will be at any given time, could therefore suffer as a result.
On a similar note, there is a question of commitment levels. I certainly don’t mean this disrespectfully, but this is objectively a more important game for Argyle than it is for Liverpool. And we’ve seen how that can impact the favourites in such clashes. Remember how poorly Yoane Wissa defended for Morgan Whittaker’s winner against Brentford? I struggle to believe he’d have been quite as noncommittal in a league encounter.
Believe it or not, I have identified a couple of weaknesses specifically relating to Liverpool. As I’ve said, across the field they have a variety of strengths that have propelled them to their lofty league position. In the grand scheme of things though, I’d have to say they’re not the best tacklers.
Across the 32 fixtures, Liverpool have collectively been dribbled past on 249 occasions. That equates to 7.78 times per game. That’s a higher number than Portsmouth, the team dribbled past most frequently in the Championship, on 7.64, and happens despite the fact Liverpool dominate the ball against practically every opponent they face.
National media would have you believe that Alexander-Arnold is the main culprit here, and to be fair he has been dribbled past more than any other Liverpool player. However, midfielder Mac Allister, so often a source of quality in Liverpool’s side, runs him close. Whether he starts or not, Argyle could have some joy this weekend by getting midfield runners into the game.
I’d also look towards some of the goals Liverpool have conceded. Perhaps due to the fact the right back is beaten with regularity, the Reds have occasionally struggled with wingers who get to the byline and put the ball across the box. It was the source of Leicester City’s surprise opener on Boxing Day…
…10-man Lille took advantage to briefly level a Champions League clash…
…and perhaps most notably, Amad Diallo equalised for Manchester United at Anfield with a cross from Liverpool’s right.
It’s possible this could suit the way Argyle attack. Get Tymoteusz Puchacz on the ball, get him in a position where he can play a low ball into the area, and I suppose you never know.
Prediction
Hey, this one was always more likely to be about the experience rather than the result. My first prediction is for a ferocious atmosphere at Home Park from 3pm on Sunday.
Of course, we can’t completely rule out the possibility of a stunning Argyle upset. Stranger things have happened in this sport, and particularly in this competition. Manchester City were fortunate to get past Leyton Orient this weekend, and Argyle have already beaten Premier League opposition in getting to this stage.
Ultimately though, I have to play the percentages. Liverpool may struggle to break Argyle down for a while, but I suspect they will eventually, and they may then add a couple of goals to apply some gloss to the scoreline. 3-0 Liverpool, no disgrace to the hosts, and an opportunity to move on to the significant challenges ahead.