After the euphoria comes a new focus, Adam Price looks ahead to Plymouth Argyle’s Championship crunch match against Millwall.
I’ll let you in on a little secret: I considered writing this piece in its entirety before Plymouth Argyle’s FA Cup clash with Liverpool on Sunday. After all, the outcome of that encounter was so obvious, so set in stone, that it wouldn’t change the framing of this preview in any way, right? Possibly through my own laziness, I decided to wait in the end, and thank goodness for that stroke of luck.
Sunday’s encounter was a textbook “I was there” moment. Miron Muslic’s side, given a chance by just about nobody, put possibly the best team in world football right now to the sword, winning through Ryan Hardie’s second half penalty. Naturally, I’m tempted to write this entire piece about that game alone, but we haven’t the time. Simply, everybody present at Home Park on Sunday will know they were part of something special.
The fear, if it’s possible to have any after such an occasion, is that Argyle must move on quickly. Their Championship status is still in real jeopardy, and Wednesday night will see another huge clash as the Greens strive to survive. Millwall are the visitors to Home Park, under relatively new management themselves following the appointment of Alex Neil. He’s a manager Argyle actually have a decent record against, but their record against Millwall as a club has been dire of late.
Will the Greens still be riding the crest of a wave? Or are we set to see a classic “After the Lord Mayor’s Show” performance?
The reverse fixture
Preview: Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle
23rd October 2024: Millwall 1 (Esse 13’) Plymouth Argyle 0
A chilly Wednesday night at the end of October. Wayne Rooney’s Argyle were desperate for a reaction after being demolished 5-0 by Cardiff City the previous weekend. In truth, they didn’t particularly come close to getting that reaction.
Millwall lined up, as they did almost exclusively under former gaffer Neil Harris, with a 4-2-3-1. Lukas Jensen, a summer arrival from Lincoln City, had just started to hit form and was trusted in goal. He was supported by a settled central defensive duo of Jake Cooper and Japhet Tanganga, the latter of whom joined permanently from Tottenham Hotspur after an impressive loan spell. Meanwhile, both full backs were familiar names to the travelling Green Army: Joe Bryan lined up on the left, with Ryan Leonard on the right.
Another settled duo lined up as Millwall’s midfield, with George Saville and Casper De Norre trusted to act as the double pivot. George Honeyman played ahead of them, with Mihailo Ivanovic as the lone striker. Ivanovic can certainly find the net, but his primary role was to hold the ball up for the benefit of two threatening wingers: Femi Azeez and Romain Esse.
The game started in dramatic circumstances. Within the first minute, referee Sam Allison awarded Argyle a penalty following a foul on Mustapha Bundu. However, after a moment of contemplation, he reversed his decision for a supposed offside. Truth be told, I’m not wholly sure Bundu was fouled, but he certainly wasn’t offside either. The whole incident set the tone for what would be a thoroughly disappointing evening.
Around ten minutes later, we saw the game’s defining moment. Bali Mumba dithered on the ball, and gave up possession to Esse. He advanced with the ball down Argyle’s left, played a clever one-two with Honeyman, and suddenly found himself in a prime shooting position within the Argyle penalty area. He calmly slotted home past Dan Grimshaw and the Pilgrims, hoping to put the Cardiff debacle behind them, found themselves trailing once more.
It wouldn’t be too dishonest to say not a great deal happened after the goal, particularly when you consider the action-packed nature of the game’s first quarter. Ryan Hardie had a header from a decent position easily saved by Jensen, whilst early in the second half a combination of Grimshaw, Lewis Gibson and Joe Edwards somehow managed to stop Azeez forcing the ball over the line. In general though, it was a game of few chances.
Argyle’s best openings possibly came in second half stoppage time. With Millwall looking to protect their 1-0 lead, Rooney’s side forced a few set pieces, and created half-chances. Gibson, Morgan Whittaker and Rami Al Hajj all had openings, but the best chance fell in the final minute to Freddie Issaka. When he blasted high and wide, Argyle’s fate was sealed: another defeat on the road.
Millwall played the game on their terms, and it ultimately worked perfectly. They only had 39% of the ball, but did far more with it than Argyle managed with the lion’s share of possession. The hosts had the beating of Argyle in the air, winning 68% of the game’s aerial duels, and were able to create the better chances from second balls as a result.
There’s no real way to sugarcoat it; this was a forgettable day in a series of forgettable days for Argyle in the first half of the season.
Similarities
I can’t help being impressed by the spine of Millwall’s side. As was the case in the reverse fixture, it remains true that it’s built upon players who have been tried and tested at the club over the last year, and the partnerships formed continue to serve them well to this day.
The centre back pairing of Cooper and Tanganga is still strong, as is the central midfield duo of Saville and De Norre. I’d be surprised if anyone else forces their way into the spine of the side this time around and, just as they did back in October, I imagine they’ll prove very tough for Argyle to break down. Going back even further, all four of the names mentioned started against Argyle at The Den at the back end of last season, and once more kept a clean sheet.
For Millwall, of course, this is vital. We know they’re the sort of side who are always up for a battle, and like to put up a fight against any opposition. Having a strong spine, and being able to be compact when necessary, is crucial to making the style work, and having the Cooper-Tanganga and Saville-De Norre duos helps immensely. Before the arrivals of Maksym Talovierov and Nikola Katic, I would argue this strong spine is something Argyle very obviously lacked when trying to implement a similar style under Muslic.
And I should confirm that, whilst Millwall have made a change in the dugout, the style of play hasn’t really seen any notable adjustments. So far, the switch from Neil Harris to Neil, Alex has ultimately led to more of the Millwall we’ve all become familiar with in recent years.
Direct passing will still be the primary method of attack for Wednesday’s visitors. Under Harris, Millwall went long with 20.4% of their passes, the highest proportional figure in the league. Since Neil took over in late December, that has actually increased, with Millwall going long with 20.8% of their passes under the Scotsman. He may have a reputation for preferring possession football more than the likes of Harris, but that hasn’t been the case on the field since his arrival at The Den.
As was the case in the reverse fixture’s preview, I’d argue that Millwall’s main strengths come in the defensive side of their game. They still rank third in the Championship for their total number of interceptions, and they’ve advanced to top of the charts for their number of tackles and tackle success. They’ve also contested, and won, more ground duels than any other Championship side, with their ground duel success rate of 52% beaten only by Bristol City and West Bromwich Albion.
Argyle may be made of sterner stuff these days, and are unlikely to be the soft touch we saw in the reverse fixture. Nonetheless, I suspect they’ll still have trouble breaking through this Millwall barrier.
Differences
As I mentioned, a difference on the touchline hasn’t thus far led to a difference in the style of play. If Neil has a long career at Millwall, I suspect we will see a more dynamic style creeping into their game. For now though, expect to see a familiar, “typical Millwall” display.
Nonetheless, there are a few personnel changes we ought to be aware of; they may not impact the style of play, but they could go a long way to determining Millwall’s chances in this encounter. Most notably, the match winner from the reverse fixture is no longer a Millwall player. Midway through the January transfer window, Millwall academy graduate Esse departed for local rivals Crystal Palace for a fee north of £12 million. I can’t imagine the move won him too many friends in Bermondsey, and his absence has left a hole to be filled.
To fill the gap, Millwall have made a couple of notable attacking signings in the transfer window, one of whom is a frighteningly familiar name. Aaron Connolly joined from Sunderland, whilst a certain Luke Cundle signed on a permanent deal from Wolverhampton Wanderers. Cundle isn’t a direct replacement for Esse, but he offers a different option, and he’s already scored his first Millwall goal. The winner, in fact, in their previous league game against Queens Park Rangers.
If I am to speak more generally, there has been a key difference between Harris and Neil. Under Harris, Millwall were posting some superb underlying data, but weren’t quite getting the results many would argue they deserved. Under Neil, the underlying data hasn’t been quite as good, but they are on a fantastic run of form. It may not have been as groundbreaking as Argyle’s result, but Millwall too had a positive experience in the FA Cup at the weekend, knocking out Leeds United at Elland Road.
In the preview for the reverse fixture, I remarked that Millwall were actually sitting third in the Championship’s expected points table. As of now, they’re still higher than many may expect, but that was built on an incredibly strong start, and they’ve since dropped down to seventh. Under Harris this season, Millwall picked up an average of 1.60 expected points per game. Under Neil, that’s gone down to 1.29. However, Millwall’s best run of form in reality has come with Neil at the helm.
Is that fortunate, or is there something deeper at play? Whilst the underlying data may go against Neil generally, there are some things Millwall are doing better. In the last preview, I mentioned that a low number of blocked shots may be contributing to Millwall underperforming against the expected goals they face. Under Neil, the number of blocks Millwall make per game has increased from 3 to around 3.7. Good fortune and game state will have a part to play, but that figure undoubtedly helps too.
This is one of those where your natural level of optimism will determine your response. On the face of it, this is a bad time to play a Millwall team in good form. But Argyle have had some strong results in the build up too, and there is enough in the underlying data to suggest they’ll challenge.
Prediction
A tough one to call. In years gone by, Millwall were exactly the sort of team Argyle would struggle against. The Greens have lost all three games against Millwall since winning promotion back to the Championship, and haven’t scored a single goal. However, Muslic’s style of play could act as the perfect antidote; Argyle will finally be playing Millwall at their own game, and I’ll be fascinated to see who comes out on the top.
In these circumstances, I’ll sit on the fence and split the difference. I’m expecting a hard-fought encounter, perhaps one for the purists, and the sort of game that could end in a score draw. 1-1.