I don’t know about you, but I came away from Vicarage Road on Saturday afternoon feeling I must have misjudged the urgency of Plymouth Argyle’s situation. After all the talk of wins being paramount from here, that settling for a draw would be of no use, Miron Muslic’s side went away to Watford and…settled for a draw. It was a bizarre culmination to what was, at least in parts, a positive performance for Argyle on their travels.
The Greens were by far the better side in the first half, and almost scored through a Ryan Hardie effort that was superbly saved by Hornets ‘keeper Egil Selvik. The hosts’ introduction of Kwadwo Baah from the bench turned the tide and, if we’re being honest, Argyle should probably have conceded at least once. But Muslic’s side gained the initiative again after their own subs, and seeing them run the clock down from there was deeply unsatisfactory.
If the point in Hertfordshire is to mean anything in the context of Argyle’s season, it simply must be backed up with a strong run of form at home. The Pilgrims have the opportunity to kick-start that run this weekend, with Norwich City the visitors to Home Park. Argyle scored six on a memorable afternoon in last season’s corresponding fixture, but it’d be an understatement to say plenty has changed since the Canaries last found themselves in Devon.
I’m tired of saying it, and soon I may not need to, but it’s win or bust from here. Let’s explore what we could see.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Norwich vs Plymouth Argyle
26th November 2024: Norwich City 6 (Sainz 2’, 17’, 52’, Duffy 51’, Ben Slimane 80’, Crnac 82’) Plymouth Argyle 1 (Bundu 39’)
Since the midway point of the season, I’ve restructured these preview pieces to add emphasis on how the teams fared against each other last time around. My rationale was to ensure I didn’t write exactly the same preview as I did for the reverse fixture, which I hope you’ll agree is reasonable. However, given the frequency of Argyle’s horror shows this season, I’ve often forced myself to unearth some painful memories from the first half of the campaign. This is one of those occasions.
In November, Argyle faced Norwich following a draw with Watford, which came right after an international break. I hope that doesn’t feel too familiar, because a similar result this weekend may tip me over the edge. That day, Argyle travelled to face a Norwich team who hadn’t won in seven league games, and they were completely destroyed.
Norwich manager Johannes Thorup, employed from Nordsjaelland in his native Denmark to replace David Wagner over the summer, lined his side up in a 4-3-3. Angus Gunn, Scotland’s number one (which possibly explains a lot), was in goal, protected by a defensive duo of the experienced Shane Duffy and Manchester City loanee Callum Doyle. Jack Stacey was deployed as the right back with Ben Chrisene, a summer arrival from Aston Villa, completing the back line on the left.
Having just returned from a four-game ban, captain Kenny McLean was straight back into the side as the deepest midfielder. He’d be sitting behind two of Thorup’s compatriots in Jacob Sorenson and Emiliano Marcondes (the latter, if you’re curious, possesses joint Danish-Brazilian citizenship). Meanwhile Championship top scorer Borja Sainz was on the left of the front three, with Amankwah Forson on the other flank and big-money signing Ante Crnac leading the line.
There’s nothing to sugarcoat so let’s get straight to it: Argyle were behind after just two minutes. Sainz found himself in space in the box after a fortunate deflection, and fired past Dan Grimshaw for his 12th league goal of the campaign. It was a goal that I think in the spirit of the law should have been ruled out for offside, but by the letter of the law the phase of play was reset by Matty Sorinola’s touch. Regardless, Argyle found themselves behind.
Any suggestions that the Greens were unlucky to be trailing were quickly extinguished. Duffy missed a sitter from a set piece, Crnac hit the post and Sainz ought to have done better with a gift of a chance, all within the first ten minutes. It didn’t take long for the Spaniard to make amends – he got in behind Kornel Szucs after Marcondes’ through ball, and slotted home from the edge of the box to double his side’s advantage. After just 17 minutes of play, the scoreline didn’t flatter the hosts.
They could hardly get any worse, and for the rest of the first half Argyle finally got going in the game. Adam Randell had a decent long-range effort deflected just wide, before the Greens managed to halve the deficit just before the break. Szucs made an interception in the Norwich half, played the ball to Andre Gray, and he flicked it to Mustapha Bundu to fire home. Within three touches of winning the ball back, Argyle had it in the net. Understandably, it’s forgotten about given the wider circumstances, but this was a genuinely good goal.
Of course, that’d be as good as it got. Argyle were only one behind at half time, but quickly fell two adrift again. Duffy atoned for his earlier miss by heading home from a corner. Grimshaw, disappointingly, was a total passenger as the ball entered his six-yard box. The Argyle ‘keeper could do little about Norwich’s fourth. Sainz breezed past Victor Palsson, a fish out of water in the right back position, and fired home superbly to complete his hat trick.
The Canaries weren’t done. Substitute Anis Ben Slimane smashed home from the edge of the area to add a fifth, before Crnac seized on an error by Julio Pleguezuelo to add a sixth. Mercifully (a strange word to use after such a drubbing), that’d be the end of the story, with Norwich winning 6-1 in front of their own supporters.
I’ll say something I’ve mentioned for a few games in recent weeks: for any other team in the Championship, this would be comfortably their worst performance of the season. That this is up for debate at Argyle is a damning indictment of their campaign. It was a complete shambles, and anything like a repeat this weekend would be completely unacceptable.
Similarities
In the build-up to the reverse fixture, it appeared that most Norwich’s strengths were in attack. They did, of course, demonstrate that in devastating style on the night. To this day, the most impressive aspects of the Canaries’ game are on show when they’re on the front foot.
Most obviously, their goalscoring record remains incredibly strong. Thorup’s side may sit tenth in the Championship, but their total of 61 league goals is only beaten by title-chasing Leeds United (78). Norwich also retain the services of the league’s top goalscorer. Sainz may not be quite as prolific these days as he was at the start of the season, but his total of 17 league goals is still enough to pip Leeds’ Joel Piroe (15) to top spot.
We can throw in numerous attacking stats to demonstrate how well Norwich have put teams to the sword. Only two teams in the league – Leeds and Middlesbrough – have posted a higher open play xG figure of 43.15. And their shooting stats, already strong ahead of November’s fixture, have become even better. Only Cardiff City have posted a better shot accuracy than Norwich’s 35%, whilst the Canaries’ 12% shot conversion is second to none.
Still, there’s a reason they’re not fighting for the title even with those goalscoring numbers. Argyle didn’t do nearly enough to take advantage last time around, but Norwich went into that encounter with some fairly concerning statistics out of possession. That’s continued to be the case throughout the campaign.
For example, their ground duel success rate of 48% remains notably poor, with only Stoke City (46%) posting a worse figure across the league. And in terms of raw numbers, only Middlesbrough have won fewer aerial duels than Norwich’s 481. Being pushovers without the ball has contributed to Norwich conceding 54 league goals this season, giving them the seventh-worst defensive record in the Championship. That’ll be viewed as a major disappointment at a club with generally lofty ambitions.
Goalkeeper Gunn also must take a portion of the blame. Looking at post-shot xG data, Gunn has the worst goals prevented figure in the league, conceding 7.12 more goals than would be expected for the average shot stopper. That’s tempered slightly by the fact he’s played more games than some of his competitors, but his prevented rate of 0.80 is still one of the lowest in the division.
Gunn missed a few fixtures with injury recently, and had a strong game in his first match back against West Bromwich Albion. It’s possible, therefore, that Argyle are facing him at the wrong time. But he’s looked vulnerable for much of the year, and we can hope that the Greens can take advantage of a ‘keeper who conceded six on his last visit to Home Park.
In general, Thorup is just as possession-hungry as he was back in November. The Canaries had 73% of the ball in the reverse fixture, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar figure again with Muslic now in charge at Argyle. Overall, Norwich rank second for touches, passes attempted and passes competed this season, whilst their average possession figure of 58% ranks third in the Championship, behind only Leeds and Swansea City.
Argyle ought to know what to expect here. Most of the strengths and weaknesses Norwich had in the reverse fixture still apply, and Thorup is still committed to playing in more or less the same manner. Of course, Argyle ought to have known what to expect before November’s game too, and we’d all rather forget what happened next.
Differences
There isn’t much to mention here, which I imagine won’t come as a surprise given the tone of the previous section. I will, however, take a moment to mention that Norwich now have one of the best strikers in the division available to them, after he wasn’t able to face Argyle last time around.
USA international Josh Sargent has actually missed out against the Greens on a couple of occasions. He was recovering from ankle surgery during last season’s Home Park clash, with Adam Idah deputising and scoring twice in a 6-2 defeat for the Canaries. A groin injury kept the American out of this season’s reverse fixture, though his absence was hardly felt. The only time Sargent has played against Argyle, he’s scored. That was the equaliser in an eventual 2-1 Norwich win against Ian Foster’s Argyle last March.
Sargent’s numbers this season are strong, and there’s an argument that the 25-year-old could be better served by a move away this summer if Norwich don’t infiltrate the play-offs late in the campaign. Sainz may be the league’s top scorer, but Sargent is close behind, and actually has a better tally of goals per 90 minutes (0.60 for Sargent, 0.51 for Sainz). In fact, no Championship player to have played as many minutes as Sargent this season has scored more frequently. He surely threatens on Saturday, doesn’t he?
In terms of other personnel changes, Forson has been absent lately, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him miss out despite starting the reverse fixture. That won’t necessarily be the catalyst for any major changes – Norwich’s front three was interchangeable last time, and Crnac could easily switch to the right wing in order to accommodate Sargent as the striker. Elsewhere, Jacob Wright and Lewis Dobbin joined Norwich in January on loan from Manchester City and Aston Villa respectively. The latter is now injured, but Wright has gathered a solid number of minutes in recent weeks.
One final difference to consider is a potential change of shape. I know that flies in the face of much of what I said in the similarities section, and I would like to reiterate that Thorup is still committed to playing with a very familiar style. However, he’s recently proved that he isn’t totally glued to the idea of playing four at the back.
Against West Brom last weekend, Thorup switched to a 3-4-3. It was a bold strategy for a side who hadn’t used the system all year, but it worked: Norwich kept a clean sheet, and secured their first win in five Championship games with Sargent’s stoppage time winner. Given how well it worked, I’m fascinated to see if Thorup sticks with it, or whether he moves back to something more familiar away from home.
Prediction
In various recent conversations, I’ve spoken about how this is exactly the sort of game Argyle tend to win. Particularly under Muslic, facing sides who like to keep the ball but possess a soft defensive underbelly has proved fruitful. However, when I had those conversations, I wasn’t quite aware of just how well Norwich’s attacking numbers had held up all season.
I am, just about, going to stick with my original thoughts. Norwich scare me in general, but their away record doesn’t – they’ve won four, drawn six and lost nine on their travels this season. I back Muslic’s side to get a victory that keeps the survival pipe dream alive for a few more days at least. 2-1 Argyle.