It’s reaching crunch time for Plymouth Argyle. Adam Price previews another early kick-off and the visit of QPR to Home Park.
I’m not trying to sound dramatic (for once), but it feels as though we’ve reached a critical stage in Plymouth Argyle’s season. We’re right in the middle of a vital transfer window, a new head coach has just arrived, and this weekend we have the second of three successive Championship home games. For a team bottom of the league and three points from safety, a win during this run is desperately required.
Tuesday night’s 1-1 draw with Oxford United was a little disappointing. The display was very much “after the Lord Mayor’s show” following an historic victory in Brentford and Miron Muslic’s rousing speech when he met the squad for the first time. Still, it may not to prove to be the worst result in the world. Gary Rowett secured a win at Home Park last season, as his Millwall side beat Steven Schumacher’s Argyle. He only managed a draw this time around.
How we eventually judge Tuesday’s display will depend on the forthcoming results, and Argyle will have the opportunity to back it up with a victory on Saturday against Queens Park Rangers. Marti Cifuentes’ side were deep in relegation trouble early in the campaign, but have managed to pull themselves well clear and into a comfortable position. Argyle will be looking to replicate their success, and beating them would be the perfect way to kickstart such a run.
The reverse fixture
Preview: QPR vs Plymouth Argyle
24th August 2024: Queens Park Rangers 1 (Frey 3’) Plymouth Argyle 1 (Whittaker 28’)
A 1-1 draw but, as anyone who attended Loftus Road that afternoon will tell you, that barely tells half the total story. It’d turn out to be a false dawn, but just for a moment it felt as though this was going to be an example of solid passion and fight away from home for Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth Argyle.
QPR lined up with a 4-2-3-1, and I expect that’s the shape we’ll see again at Home Park this weekend. Paul Nardi, a new arrival at that stage, started in goal, and was supported by a solid defensive pair of Steve Cook and Jake Clarke-Salter. Kenneth Paal lined up on the left side of that defence, whilst the versatility of Jimmy Dunne allowed him to slot in on the right.
Cifuentes initially had a conundrum in midfield ahead of the reverse fixture. Sam Field was practically certain to start in the “2” but, after an iffy debut at Sheffield United saw him hauled off at half time, Jonathan Varane’s place in the side was called into the question. And so it proved; Varane was dropped from the side, and a debut handed to 24-year-old Dane Nicolas Madsen.
The front four included Koki Saito and Karamoko Dembele, two more players who arrived at Loftus Road over the summer. There were joined on the right by Paul Smyth, with the line being led by big Swiss forward Michael Frey.
That line up allowed QPR to dominate from the off. Madsen almost scored with a header merely seconds into his debut, and Smyth certainly should have scored in the second minute when through one-on-one, denied only by a superb reaction stop from Conor Hazard. Cifuentes’ side weren’t to be denied though – from the resulting corner, Frey headed in at the near post to give QPR a deserved early lead. At that stage, it looked as though it could’ve been a long afternoon for the travelling Greens.
Fortunately, Argyle had a player on the field capable of creating something from nothing. With 28 minutes on the clock, the ball fell to Morgan Whittaker around 30 yards from goal. Argyle’s star man walloped it past Nardi and into the bottom corner, single-handedly dragging Argyle level. At the time, it was hoped this would spark another goalscoring run for Whittaker, and whilst that hasn’t materialised, his exploits in Brentford prove he’s still capable of such moments of magic.
Barely a minute later, we saw possibly the game’s defining moment. Dunne had the ball in the corner and was going nowhere before Adam Forshaw, already on a yellow card, dived in for a daft, needless challenge. He received his marching orders, and Argyle faced the prospect of holding onto their point for an hour whilst a man down. They just about survived unscathed until half time.
At the interval, Cifuentes brought on Slovenian striker Zan Celar, went with two up front, and signalled that he was attempting to cross Argyle into oblivion. Dembele was crucial for the strategy. He officially lined up as the number 10, but attempted 16 crosses across the game, completing an impressive 10 of those. Along with his…willingness to go to ground when tackled, he was a constant thorn in Argyle’s side all afternoon.
Nonetheless, the minutes ticked by and the Greens held firm. A “bodies on the line” approach was necessary, with Argyle blocking nine shots overall, but they were generally indebted to goalkeeper Hazard. The Northern Irishman made nine saves, conceding just once from a post-shot xG faced figure of 3.18, and deservedly won the man of the match award in front of the Sky cameras.
Objectively, QPR deserved to win the game. They had a remarkable 30 shots to Argyle’s six, and posted an xG figure of 2.40 compared to Argyle’s 0.14. But Argyle emerged with a ton of credit for securing a point in adverse circumstances. Even as they were reduced to nine men following Freddie Issaka’s late dismissal, they refused to be beaten.
A false dawn, yes, but a rare moment of celebration for Argyle on the road this season.
Similarities
The first thing to note is that the 4-2-3-1 shape is likely to remain in place. As the reverse fixture demonstrated, Cifuentes has no problem switching shapes mid-game where necessary, but he tends to start matches in a consistent manner. QPR have attempted systems with three at the back this season, but it hasn’t brought any wins, and I imagine player availability makes that highly unlikely this weekend.
Regardless of the shape though, I suspect QPR will threaten Argyle in a similar way to their previous encounter. That day, QPR scored with a header from a corner, and their goal in a 1-1 draw at Home Park back in April also came from a dead ball situation. Set pieces have remained a key facet of QPR’s attack ever since.
Across the campaign. QPR have scored a total of 11 goals from various set piece situations. Having scored 29 overall in the league, dead ball situations account for 38% of their total goal tally; only Luton Town and Derby County rely on set pieces for a higher proportion of their goals. QPR particularly flourish when it comes to corners. Having taken 129 corners and scored seven times, 5.4% of the corners QPR have taken result in goals. Again, only two teams in the Championship have a better record.
In general, headed goals are a huge weapon for Cifuentes and his side, whether or not the chance itself comes from a set piece. QPR’s total of 7 headed goals this season is only beaten by Derby, Coventry City and West Bromwich Albion. And it should be noted that those three sides have scored more goals in total than QPR – proportionally, Cifuentes’ side again rank very highly.
QPR are going to threaten from set pieces, just as they did during the previous two clashes between the sides. There is another similarity from last time around that they’ve carried through the season though, and this one is a far more promising sign for Argyle. QPR had 30 shots back in August, but their profligacy saw them only score once. That wastefulness has shown no sign of rectifying itself.
Across all league games this term, QPR have posted a shot accuracy figure of 32%. That’s only good enough to rank 18th across the Championship as a whole. When looking at shot conversion, the numbers are even worse – QPR’s 29 goals have come from a total of 309 shots, giving them a shot conversion of 8%. Only four teams in the Championship have posted a worse figure.
Argyle know they’ll face periods of pressure this weekend. But, as much as I wouldn’t recommend this as a game plan, they could probably get away with giving up a big chance or two. Another display of wasteful finishing from QPR could go a long way to securing the Greens a positive result.
Differences
With the style of play similar, and the shape practically identical, we may have a good idea of what to expect from QPR. Still, there are a few differences to note since the sides last met, many of which focus on the different personnel available to Cifuentes.
The obvious place to start is Ilias Chair. Arguably QPR’s most threatening attacking player, he was unavailable back in August, but looks set to take part this weekend. Whether he’s “returned from injury” or retuned from Belgium is something we can only speculate upon, but he’s available, and Argyle ought to be prepared to face a player of his talents.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Cifuentes. Dembele, probably QPR’s key player last time around, has been out injured since late October, and shows no signs of being available for selection anytime soon. Then there’s Saito, who made his full debut in the reverse fixture but has fallen out of favour in recent weeks. I’d expect to see him benched again, with 18-year-old Kieran Morgan in the number 10 position, Chair to the left and Smyth to the right.
Perhaps due to Dembele’s absence, the cross-heavy approach we saw in the reverse fixture hasn’t been as much of a feature in recent weeks. Before Dembele was injured against Coventry, QPR attempted an average of 19.91 crosses per game. In the time since, that has dropped to 14.80. They’ll still put the ball into the area, but it’s unlikely to be the constant barrage we became used to last time around.
Rather, QPR are more likely to threaten with long, direct balls through the middle. With 44%, they rank 21st for average possession in the Championship this season, whilst they rank highly for their number of long passes attempted and completed. From there, the wingers will be trusted to win second balls and create chances for themselves, rather than primarily crossing for the centre forward(s).
Perhaps the most notable personnel changes, however, come in the centre of QPR’s defence. Last season, amongst other factors, their revival was built upon a solid defensive pair of Cook and Clarke-Salter. Both played the reverse fixture, but neither is likely to be fit to feature at Home Park. Such a lack of centre back options is why I was so certain earlier that we wouldn’t see QPR deploy a back three this weekend.
It’s not as if Cifuentes doesn’t have adequate replacements at his disposal. Morgan Fox and Jimmy Dunne are both capable players, whilst this winter they’ve brought in the talented Ronnie Edwards on loan from Southampton. Still, it’s not the combination he’d have preferred heading into the campaign, and it’s bound to affect the confidence levels throughout the side.
I feel as though Chair’s addition more or less balances out Dembele’s absence. However, in my view the defence is undeniably weaker than it was in the reverse fixture. If they can get themselves on the ball in attacking areas, Argyle will surely be confident of putting their visitors under pressure.
Prediction
With fixtures against promotion-chasing Burnley and Sunderland to come, Argyle’s encounter with QPR is starting to look like a must-win game. Of course, they won’t be mathematically relegated at this stage whatever happens, but there’s a chance Argyle will start to be cut adrift with tough games on the horizon. That’d undoubtedly put Muslic under serious pressure.
Whether they’ll get that win, of course, is the big question. I certainly think they’ll get plenty of chances. Both teams will feel as though their strengths come in attack, with their weaknesses further back in the side. Football doesn’t always work this way, but I’d certainly suggest both teams scoring is more likely than not.
Alas, given Argyle’s lack of options in the centre of defence, I suspect it’ll be QPR getting the bulk of the chances. I hope I’m wrong, but my instinct is that it’ll be the visitors celebrating a narrow victory. 2-1 QPR.