Adam Price previews the early kick-off as Michael Cooper returns to Home Park with Sheffield United.
Five games remaining. Five points from safety. It’s at this moment when the ratios involved begin to look borderline impossible. Not mathematically, of course, but I struggle to apply any logic that could even suggest Plymouth Argyle can avoid the drop.
The number of truly abject performances has been a major hinderance. We witnessed a painful addition to that list on Wednesday night. Argyle travelled to face Swansea City, were 3-0 down before you could say “sheep,” and really ought to have been beaten by a wider margin. The meeting was another entry in Argyle’s season-long catalogue of horror shows. In at least a quarter, maybe even a third of their games, the Greens haven’t just lost, they’ve been completely battered.
And next up, it’s an encounter with one of the league’s title-chasing sides. Sheffield United are locked in a three-way duel with Burnley and Leeds United for promotion. The Blades sit two points away from their rivals but, having been docked two points before the season commenced, the top three have actually picked up exactly the same number of points all season. Sheffield United are, ultimately, a strong side.
Perhaps surprisingly, Chris Wilder’s side come into the Home Park clash on the back of successive league defeats. Will they be a little fragile for their trip to Devon? Or will that simply give them extra motivation to take the three points?
The reverse fixture
Preview: Sheffield United vs Plymouth Argyle
14th December 2024: Sheffield United 2 (Hamer 19’, Moore pen 88’) Plymouth Argyle 0
Following a series of defeats, and countless embarrassing performances on the road, hopes among the Green Army were predictably low ahead of the trip to Bramall Lane. And yes, the Pilgrims did once again lose. However, the performance level in this encounter was exponentially better than the dross Argyle had served up in the weeks prior.
Wilder lined his side up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. And there was an incredibly familiar name in goal, as Michael Cooper lined up against his former club for the very first time. With Argyle attacking the end where their own fans were gathered in the first half, Cooper initially received a mixed reception, but was given a rousing response by the travelling Green Army after the final whistle.
Cooper would be protected by a back four who were perhaps still adapting to life at Bramall Lane. Only centre back Jack Robinson was a Blades player last season, with left back Harrison Burrows signed from Peterborough United. Meanwhile, right back Alfie Gilchrist, as well as Robinson’s central defensive partner Harry Souttar, were drafted in on loan from Chelsea and Leicester City respectively.
In central midfield, Tom Davies was making his first start after a significant injury lay-off, and he lined up alongside academy graduate Sydie Peck. The decision to play Callum O’Hare as the number 10 was a risky one, given it forced Gus Hamer onto the left wing, but there was enough talent in the attacking areas to make it effective. Crystal Palace loanee Jesurun Rak-Sakyi lined up on the right with another academy graduate, Ryan One, taking on the role of the lone striker.
With the odds stacked against them, Argyle made a surprisingly strong start. They had the first effort of the game through Michael Obafemi, and ensured their hosts didn’t get a shot away in anger until the 17th minute. Unfortunately, just two minutes later, the Blades broke through for real.
After Lewis Gibson initially headed a corner away, the ball fell for Hamer on the edge of the box. He caught it annoyingly well on the half-volley, walloping a shot past Dan Grimshaw and into the net. Really, there wasn’t much any man in green could have done better. Argyle were undeservedly behind but, at that moment, it didn’t make the pill any less bitter.
Often in away games, we’ve seen Argyle collapse after conceding first, no matter how well they’d been playing up to that point. Not so on this occasion. If anything, the Greens upped the ante and were even more dominant. They were aided by a strong performance from Rami Al Hajj, having comfortably one of his better displays in an Argyle shirt after being recalled to the side. He had a couple of decent opportunities himself, one a clever flick saved by Cooper, and he’ll probably be disappointed not to have added his name to the scoresheet.
One man who certainly will be disappointed is Darko Gyabi, who had by far the best chance of the first half. After good work by Obafemi on the left, Brendan Galloway was set free in the area. His cross was blocked, but the ball fell to Gyabi who practically had an open goal to aim at. He sliced despairingly wide, and somehow Argyle found themselves behind at the break once more.
There was no let-up after the break. Gibson headed an Adam Randell free kick against the outside of the post, whilst it took a terrific fingertip save from Cooper to deny another header, this time from Ryan Hardie. And despite all that pressure, it was Sheffield United who put the game to bed two minutes from time.
Two substitutes, Rhian Brewster and Kieffer Moore, combined to get Davies on the ball in the box. From there, Galloway was at fault for the second time in two games. He slid in, tripped Davies and gave away a penalty. Moore scored from the spot, and Argyle had somehow slipped to a 2-0 defeat having had the better of the game.
In hindsight, perhaps we ought to have seen this game and recognised that nothing was going to go Argyle’s way this season. The Greens had the bulk of the possession (37%-63%) and out created their hosts in open-play xG (0.43-1.02). They still lost.
Given the calamities surrounding it, this performance was hugely encouraging. But the result was tough to take.
Similarities
Sheffield United’s victory in December’s game was at best fortunate, and at worst totally undeserved. But that was nothing new for the Blades faithful. Across the season, their team have made a habit of winning games when, on the face of it at least, they haven’t played particularly well.
The stats we have available for this piece include all games up to but not including the recent midweek fixtures. As such, we can look at Sheffield United’s expected points total for the first 40 games of the campaign, which comes to 63.94. Given their total points tally of 83, that means the Blades have been overperforming against what their xG at both ends would suggest by 21.06 points. That is, comfortably, the largest such overperformance in the division.
Wilder still prefers defence to attack when looking to get his side over the line in those marginal encounters. Their total goals tally for the season is 56, which only ranks them joint-sixth in the Championship alongside arch-rivals Wednesday. However, that’s been enough to keep them in title contention due to the fact they’ve only shipped 30 goals. That gives the Blades the third-best defensive record in the league; it isn’t quite as good as their record ahead of the reverse fixture, but it’s still right up there.
When it comes to transitions, Sheffield United still benefit greatly from winning most of their duels. They went into the reverse fixture as one of the best aerial teams in the league, and their aerial duel success rate of 53% remains good enough to rank them third across the division. They’ve also been able to add a proficiency in ground duels to their aerial dominance, with their success rate there of 52% ranking as the Championship’s fourth-best figure.
And in general, maintaining the same head coach has led to much of the status quo remaining. Wilder seems locked in to his preferred 4-2-3-1 shape as we reach the business end of the campaign, whilst his side still only rank ninth for average possession across the Championship despite their title challenge. Given we’re watching Muslic-ball rather than Rooney-ball, I still suspect the Blades will have the lion’s share of possession this weekend, but they aren’t the sort of side to pass the ball for passing’s sake.
A few key individuals remain in place too. Hamer, scorer of the opening goal in the reverse fixture, seems to have made the left wing position his own ever since. Meanwhile, the Blades retain the services of one of the league’s best goalkeepers. Cooper’s numbers may have fallen behind James Trafford’s in recent months, but that says more about Trafford’s absurdly good form than anything else. Cooper will get a warm reception from the majority, but there’s every chance he’ll prove a nuisance for Argyle as they look to finally beat him.
It wouldn’t come as a shock if Cooper was celebrating at Home Park once again after the final whistle.
Differences
Although it was a good strike, Hamer’s goal in December’s game technically came from a set piece situation. However, that isn’t something that has remained a trend across Sheffield United’s campaign. Corners in particular have generally proved fruitless ground for the Blades – they may have had 215 corners across the season (Argyle sit on 122), but only 1.9% of them have resulted in goals. Only three teams in the league have a lower corner conversion rate, and even Argyle score from 2.5% of their corner situations.
As I often find myself saying, this is one of those stats where your feelings will be dictated by your natural level of optimism. Put simply, Argyle defended set pieces appallingly in Swansea. They conceded once from a free kick, but could easily have shipped at least two more from dead ball situations. Will they take solace from the fact they’re facing a side who don’t seem to flourish from their own set pieces? Or will the Blades take heart from the fact they’ve already scored from a corner this season against Argyle? We shall see.
In terms of personnel, the January transfer window brought about a reasonable level of change at Bramall Lane. Souttar is a big miss at the back – a season-curtailing injury in late December cut his loan short, and he returned to parent club Leicester. The Blades certainly took the opportunity to add to their ranks though. Striker Tom Cannon was signed on a permanent deal, whilst loan moves were completed for Harry Clarke, Hamza Choudhury, Rob Holding and Stoke-born Chilean Ben Brereton Diaz.
There have also been switches between players who were already at the club at the time of the reverse fixture. For example, centre back Anel Ahmedhodzic missed December’s game, but has played in Sheffield United’s last 19 in the league, and looks to be the ideal Souttar replacement. In midfield, Davies is injured again – whilst Choudhury is a copybook replacement, Vinicius Souza is another strong option. And up front, I’d suggest both One and Moore have fallen behind Tyrese Campbell in the pecking order.
When looking at the numbers, I’ve been impressed by how well Sheffield United have been dribbling recently. It wasn’t a stat that stood out ahead of the reverse fixture, but the Blades’ dribble success of 49% is now good enough to rank third in the league. Wingers Hamer and particularly Rak-Sakyi have had a part to play, but that figure has been boosted by the increase in playing time for Femi Seriki in the right back position. He’s completed a solid average of 2.04 dribbles per 90 minutes this season, and will cause Argyle some headaches.
I’d be lying if I said this didn’t leave me concerned. Argyle’s defensive options on the left side are mixed at best, whilst Matty Sorinola’s absence on the right may mean Joe Edwards needs to deal with Hamer for 90 minutes. I’ve no doubt he has the intelligence to do it, but does he have the legs?
Prediction
Something very similar to the encounter at Bramall Lane wouldn’t surprise me here. Between both boxes, Sheffield United don’t look anything like the title challengers they’ve proved to be. When it matters though, they’ve delivered, and there’s a reason why they find themselves where they do in the league table.
So yes, a perceived uptick in performance level for Argyle may be on the cards. They may even go one better than last time and score, but I don’t think it’ll be enough. As painful as it is, things just haven’t gone the Pilgrims’ way this season, whilst it’s been the opposite story for the Blades. 2-1 Sheffield United.