I long for a normal week. I’m desperate for a time when Plymouth Argyle just have an average few days, with nothing particularly devastating happening in the background. And I can’t wait to attend a game and not feel as though I’ve gone 12 rounds with Tyson Fury/Muhammad Ali/insert your favourite heavyweight boxer here by the full time whistle.
Yes, hello and welcome to another match preview introduction which goes off on various tangents about the last seven days. Not long ago, the mood was surprisingly high, particularly after Nathanael Ogbeta’s late goal secured an unlikely 2-2 draw away at Sunderland. Since then though, blow after blow on the transfer front had cut the optimism dead.
At the time of writing, Argyle hadn’t made a single signing they blatantly needed, before finally Maksym Talovierov arrived on Friday morning for a club-record fee. Nikola Katic shortly followed him through the door. Suddenly, things are looking up once more.
If either receives international clearance in time, Argyle will finally have three fit centre backs in a team clearly locked in to playing a back three. Even if Talovierov and/or Katic available though, that fixture will be against another of the division’s high-flying sides. West Bromwich Albion may not be the table-toppers they were when the teams last met, but they are still fifth and harbour genuine play-off ambitions.
Like Argyle, the Baggies have also been through a recent managerial change. On Christmas Eve, popular gaffer Carlos Corberan brought some festive cheer by…leaving for Valencia. Still, West Brom appear to have recruited well, replacing the Spaniard with arguably the nicest man in football Tony Mowbray. We’ll explore a little later how his return to The Hawthorns could impact this weekend’s clash.
The reverse fixture
Preview: West Brom vs Plymouth Argyle
21st September 2024: West Bromwich Albion 1 (Maja 62’) Plymouth Argyle 0
With the away end apparently in the vicinity of a bakery, this was a game taking place at possibly the nicest smelling football ground in the country. I’ll have to take everyone’s word for that though; I attended, but appeared to be falling ill and couldn’t smell a thing, perhaps aside from the fear in the air as Argyle prepared to take on the early Championship pacesetters.
As it turns out, we needn’t have been too worried. Ok, the Pilgrims did end up losing on the road, but that has been par for the course for much of the campaign. The performance level, however, was highly encouraging, and surprised many who assumed Argyle would simply be blown away.
Corberan’s West Brom, as they were at the time, lined up with a 4-2-3-1. And fascinatingly (or at least, fascinating for someone as dull as myself), this was the first time the Spaniard had made a change to his team all season. He’d named exactly the same starting 11 for West Brom’s first five fixtures, and against Argyle he made just the one change in midfield. Uros Racic, a loan signing from Italian side Sassuolo, replaced Jayson Molumby to make his debut alongside Alex Mowatt.
Rather predictably then, the rest of the side felt incredibly settled. Alex Palmer was a familiar name for both sets of supporters in the West Brom goal, and he was supported by a central defensive pairing of Kyle Bartley and Semi Ajayi, both of whom have spent over half a decade at The Hawthorns. Torbjorn Heggem was trusted at left back whilst Darnell Furlong, another of the Baggies’ long-serving players, lined up on the right.
Ahead of the Racic-Mowatt midfield pivot, John Swift lined up in the number 10 position, aiming to provide some creativity for the front three. Said front three included Karlan Grant, getting a new lease of life at West Brom having spent the previous season on loan at Cardiff City, academy graduate Tom Fellows, and exciting centre forward Josh Maja. With five goals, Maja came into the game as the Championship’s top scorer.
He’d almost have a say immediately, firing wide in front of goal after just two minutes (although, if it had gone in, it would’ve been a huge injustice given a blatant handball in the buildup). Regardless, West Brom were surely disappointed not to go in at the break in front, given they struck the woodwork a remarkable three times. None of those were clear openings; rather, they were shots from hopeful positions that very nearly squeezed in. But when you hit the post three times, you start wondering whether it could be “one of those days.”
Indeed, Argyle also threatened at the other end. Ryan Hardie had a decent opportunity, and Morgan Whittaker had an even better one that was well saved by Palmer. Darko Gyabi also forced Palmer into a decent stop, as Argyle ended the first half strongly. They hadn’t been the better side, but they were far from out of the game, particularly at 0-0.
The second half started in a similar fashion, with Argyle matching their hosts, before the game’s defining incident on 62 minutes. Debutant Racic got in on Argyle’s left, and played a ball across goal. Some slightly lax defending from Kornel Szucs left Maja free, and he tapped the ball home to give the Baggies the lead, notching his sixth goal of the campaign in the process.
Argyle’s worst spell followed, with Corberan’s side forcing several set pieces and almost doubling their lead on a few occasions. They got a little nervy towards the end though – Argyle had the final six shots of the game, but couldn’t create a significant opportunity as they chased the game. West Brom secured a 1-0 victory, and maintained their place at the top of the Championship.
The correct team won the game. I often find in situations like this, where the underdogs perform better than expected, there can be an overcorrection to assuming they were the better team. Here, West Brom had the better chances and deserved their win, which is no problem. Given the resource gap between the sides, anything else would have been a shock.
For a moment, this looked like a brilliant sign for potential away performances under Wayne Rooney. If only we knew what was to come.
Similarities
Alongside Stoke City, West Brom will be only the second side Argyle have faced this season to have changed their manager from the reverse fixture. As such, similarities are slightly harder to identify than they may have been in recent weeks. Nonetheless, West Brom haven’t gone through a complete revolution, and there are still some constants we can point towards from September’s clash.
The importance of Mowatt in midfield is just as true now as it was for the reverse fixture. In the preview for that encounter, I mentioned that he had a key role to play both in and out of possession. In a way that’s still true, and Mowatt still ranks second in West Brom’s squad for tackles completed. However, it’s with the ball that he remains particularly vital. Mowatt has had more touches, completed more passes and made more key passes than any West Brom player, and we’re sure to see plenty of him at the weekend.
Mowatt is part of a squad that remains notably experienced. Again, in September’s preview I mentioned how West Brom had the fifth-oldest squad in the league. Even that was a step in the younger direction from 2023-24, where the Baggies were older than any other side in the Championship. Largely, that’s still true. West Brom’s average age of 26.75 this season currently ranks them as the sixth-oldest Championship side. With Mowbray in the dugout, this is a team who will be using all their experience in every situation.
I’ve also noticed a similarity in the way West Brom defend. Perhaps because they’re collectively older than most teams they face, the Baggies have seldom been the sort of side to deploy an active, energetic press. That remains the case, and right now they seem to be going to extremes to prove it.
This season, West Brom have made a total of 420 tackles, fewer than any other team in the league. However, their tackle success of 72% is actually above average. That’s because they’ve collectively been dribbled past on 163 occasions, again the lowest number of any team in the league. West Brom can tackle, but they’re more minded to ensure they don’t overcommit, keeping their sturdy shape in the face of impending danger.
Will that suit Argyle? It’s hard to say. It does mean the Greens are likely to have more time on the ball than they may against some of the league’s high-pressing sides. If they get creative talents such as Rami Al Hajj and Michael Baidoo on the ball, they may be able to take advantage. However, we saw last season at Home Park how West Brom’s style can be effective. Under Ian Foster, Argyle had plenty of the ball against the Baggies, but they largely had it in passive areas, and they were eventually easily picked off.
West Brom are the sort of team who can quietly tear a side apart. Argyle must ensure they don’t fall into the trap.
Differences
The most obvious difference is in the dugout. As we’ve discussed, Mowbray replaced Corberan as manager earlier this month, and has had two games at the helm thus far. Mowbray is an intelligent man, and hasn’t made wholesale changes since taking up the post. That’s not me throwing shade at Argyle’s current head coach, who inherited a very different situation, it’s merely an observation.
One slight alteration I have noticed is in the shape. Whilst the 4-2-3-1 we saw at The Hawthorns was par for the course under Corberan, Mowbray’s arrival has seen the introduction of a form of 4-4-2.
I wouldn’t necessarily call it a basic 4-4-2 from decades past, because it’s lacked what I think would be described as an “out and out striker” since Mowbray’s arrival. Grant, Jed Wallace and Grady Diangana have played up front recently, all of whom are capable of dropping deeper and turning the shape into a de facto 4-2-3-1. Nonetheless, it is a subtle change for Argyle to consider.
In listing those forwards, you may have noticed one man conspicuous in his absence. Maja, the key player and match winner in the reverse summer, is set to be unavailable through injury. The 26-year-old had surgery on a lower leg problem a fortnight ago that will keep him out of action for “several weeks.” That means he has no chance of featuring this weekend, in what will surely be a huge boost to Argyle’s hopes.
West Brom, it must be said, aren’t currently the machine many thought they may be after the reverse fixture. They were top of the tree after beating Argyle in September, whilst they now sit in fifth place, 14 points adrift of the automatic promotion positions. Following his start to the season, I and many others stated West Brom would be right up there if they could keep Maja fit. They’ve struggled to do so, and they’ve fallen away; that cannot be a coincidence.
To be fair, Maja isn’t the only big absence in Mowbray’s ranks in the build up to this game. Bartley and Ajayi, the centre back pairing back in September, both look as though they’ll miss out through injury. Bartley has missed the last few, whilst Ajayi is a long-term absentee.
Now, the Baggies do have capable replacements – given Argyle’s centre back struggles across January, I have no doubt that Everton loanee Mason Holgate would walk into Miron Muslic’s side. Still, he’s not as familiar with West Brom as the men he’s replacing, and things like Bartley’s obscene 77% aerial duel success rate could be missed, particularly if Muhamed Tijani is fit to play a significant role.
For my money, West Brom are a weaker side than the one Argyle faced in September. Not weak full stop, and they’ll still start the game as favourites, but the Greens ought to go into the game with confidence. They were a decent match for stronger opponents last time around, and in front of their own fans there’s every chance they can cause the Baggies one or two issues again.
Prediction
West Bromwich Albion, having not won away from home since November, travel to Home Park in February to face a Plymouth Argyle side under new management. You’ll have to forgive me for thinking I’ve travelled 12 months back in time.
The omens may be bad, but I’m hopeful of a better performance than the one we saw during the Foster era. If Argyle show the same fight and application as they did in Sunderland, they’ll give themselves a chance. Will it be enough? I think I’d have to lean towards no. I anticipate a close game, but I imagine the strengths and experience in Mowbray’s side will prove just too much. 2-1 West Brom.