Groundhog Day as Adam Price previews a trip to Portsmouth: Plymouth Argyle take to the road again. Just five chances left for the first away win…
A few years ago, a quote by then Accrington Stanley manager John Coleman went viral after a defeat in the FA Cup against Derby County. In his post-match interview, Coleman proclaimed “I’m rapidly falling out of love with football. I just wonder ‘what’s the point anymore?’ You know?” Reader, I do know. I’m beginning to relate to Coleman on a spiritual level.
In the league at least, following Plymouth Argyle this season has been an absolute chore. If there were any doubts that the Greens had purchased an express ticket to League One, they’ve surely been put to bed by Saturday’s 3-0 home humbling against Sheffield Wednesday. Argyle play Portsmouth at Fratton Park on Wednesday night, and I could hardly be less enthused. It’s a fixture that’s given us Peter Hartley’s header, Gregg Wylde’s late winner and numerous bonkers 2-2 draws, and I can’t get myself up for it whatsoever.
So, in that spirit, let’s once again go into unnecessary depth about Argyle’s forthcoming opponents.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Portsmouth
5th November 2024: Plymouth Argyle 1 (Obafemi 82’) Portsmouth 0
Bonfire night at Home Park, and a rare opportunity for some explosive celebrations this season. It remains the only time this year that Argyle have won a league game whilst keeping a clean sheet in the process.
As predicted before the encounter, John Mousinho lined his Portsmouth side up with a 4-2-3-1. Nicolas Schmid, a fairly new arrival having joined from Austrian side Blau-Weiss Linz in late August, was trusted in goal over Will Norris. He was protected by a back four consisting of Connor Ogilvie on the left, Regan Poole and Tom McIntyre in the centre, and Jordan Williams on the right. Williams was the only member of that back line not to have featured in Pompey’s League One title-winning campaign in 2023/24.
Meanwhile, the midfield double pivot included two new signings. Freddie Potts, a loan arrival from West Ham United, started alongside Andre Dozzell, signed on a permanent deal from Queens Park Rangers. There were also some new faces on the flanks. The talented Josh Murphy signed from Oxford United and lined up on the left, whilst Matt Ritchie made his return to Fratton Park over the summer 13 years after departing. He was deployed on the right.
Callum Lang, who first joined Portsmouth last winter, lined up in his favourite position just behind the striker. That striker was Australian international Kusini Yengi, who commented after the game that he’d faced more difficult defences in League One than he’d faced in the Championship. Yengi is yet to score this season.
Portsmouth had the ball in the net within the first minute of the game. Ogilvie forced a good save from Dan Grimshaw after a corner routine, the rebound was tapped home, but the offside flag spared Argyle a dreadful start. Hopes that would kick them into gear were dashed however, with the first half not really getting going as a contest.
Set pieces remained the most likely method of breaking the deadlock. Kornel Szucs forced Schmid into action with an acrobatic effort from a corner, whilst Grimshaw made another smart save to deny Ogilvie again from a near post header. The best open play chance of the half fell to Ritchie, but he headed into Grimshaw’s arms from a decent position, and the game would remain goalless at the interval.
The second period started in a similarly lifeless fashion. Portsmouth had the first four shots of the half, but none were particularly threatening, before the first truly big chance of the game fell Argyle’s way. Some good work on the left by Freddie Issaka saw a cross eventually reach Andre Gray, who teed the ball up for Jordan Houghton. His effort was expertly tipped around the post by Schmid. Houghton, without wanting to be disparaging, wouldn’t have been the player Argyle wanted the chance to fall to, but it was the closest either side had come to scoring to that point.
Argyle, however, were not to be denied a second time. With eight minutes remaining, a long Grimshaw ball was missed by both McIntyre and Poole, and Michael Obafemi pounced. The Burnley loanee finished delightfully with the outside of his foot, beating Schmid and giving Argyle the lead. Was it deserved? Who cares? Argyle had their noses in front, and would retain the initiative right up to the final whistle.
The xG battle was predictably close, with Pompey edging it by a hair’s breadth: 0.80 to 0.79. However, I don’t necessarily feel that tells the full story. There were a number of nearly moments for Mousinho’s side, and several balls across the box that just failed to find their intended target. On another day, one of those may have fallen Portsmouth’s way to get a shot away. They’d have built up their xG figure, and potentially scored.
That’s not to say Argyle weren’t worthy of their victory. For once, it was they who looked to be the established Championship side, they who were able to win without playing particularly well. After so many occasions last term with the shoe on the other foot, it was an extremely welcome change. Alas, the goodwill wasn’t set to last. This was the final win of the Wayne Rooney era before he was sacked almost two months later.
Similarities
Portsmouth are the only team within the Championship’s current bottom ten to have stuck with their manager through the entire season, which is of course to their credit. That’s not to say other clubs weren’t correct to make a change – Argyle’s own decision to dispense with Rooney was long overdue – but it’s nice to see someone who achieved so much in League One given a proper chance to succeed in the Championship despite initial teething problems.
As such, we shouldn’t be surprised that much of Portsmouth’s style from the reverse fixture has carried on throughout the campaign. Mousinho’s 4-2-3-1 has remained practically constant, and they still like to go direct when possible. Pompey looked at their most dangerous in November when they could get their wingers on the ball in dangerous areas, but to transition it to them they liked to go long.
That trend has continued. Portsmouth have played 20% of their passes long this year, the highest proportion of any team in the league, whilst they’ve also contested and won more aerial duels than anyone else. He may have had a patchy few games, but this is an encounter tailor made for Nikola Katic.
I’d also note that Portsmouth still seem to be shooting well. This wasn’t quite as apparent in the reverse fixture, as Pompey struggled to create many clear openings, but I mentioned in the preview for that game that they were posting impressive shooting stats. They still are. Perhaps not to the same extent, but their shot conversion rate of 11% is currently the fourth-highest figure in the Championship. They’ll be confident of hitting the target with regularity against Argyle.
Another thing I mentioned in the preview for the reverse fixture was that Portsmouth tend to win plenty of penalties. Of course, they didn’t get one at Home Park, but they’ve remained close to the top of the penalties awarded table ever since. Across the league, only Watford have taken more spot kicks this season than Pompey’s five. Argyle cannot afford to defend clumsily – if there is a flailing leg in the box, Portsmouth’s forwards will have no qualms initiating contact.
On a more positive note, Portsmouth have still carried over some vulnerabilities from the encounter at Home Park. They went into the game having been caught out by more opposition through balls than any other team in the Championship. That’s still the case, and the gap is now even wider. Collectively, Portsmouth’s opponents have successfully played 30 through balls against them this season, with Argyle’s themselves the next-worst team on the list, way back on 22.
Granted, intricate play and defence-splitting passes aren’t really part of Miron Muslic’s style, and it may be the case that Argyle don’t have the required skill set to unlock the Pompey door in such a manner. It isn’t impossible though, and this may act as a good opportunity to give Rami Al Hajj or Michael Baidoo (or both) the chance to shine from the start.
Differences
It’s a strange one. Usually, teams to have seen such an upturn in fortunes as Portsmouth have this season do so in part thanks to a new manager bounce midway through the campaign. Of course though, Pompey have retained the services of their own manager throughout the season. Their methods have remained remarkably similar, but the team are executing Mousinho’s plans far better at both ends of the field.
Take the attack as an example. As I discussed earlier, Portsmouth struggled to create any chances of great significance in the reverse fixture. That didn’t come as a surprise; going into the game, only Argyle themselves had created fewer big goalscoring chances than Mousinho’s men, whilst Pompey had a lower open play xG figure than any other team in the league. Since then, we’ve seen quite the reversal in fortunes.
Portsmouth have lifted themselves to 18th in the big chances created table. It’s still not exactly high, but it’s an impressive feat given where they were back in November, and they’ve now created 44 big chances this term compared to Argyle’s 25. Pompey also now rank 16th for open play xG, having been bottom of the pile when the teams last met, and if we take xG from all sources they’d place as high as 12th.
The performance levels have been lifted at the other end too. In advance of the game at Home Park, Pompey had faced more shots across the campaign than any other Championship team aside from their opponents on the day. But recently, they’ve been tighter at the back. Prior to the reverse fixture, Portsmouth faced an average of 16.3 shots per game. In the games since, they’ve only faced 12.3 on average, doing their goals against column plenty of favours in the process.
Now, I won’t pretend there haven’t been any personnel changes since these sides last met. Whilst they’ve kept faith in their manager, Portsmouth were particularly active in the January transfer window. They used the loan market intelligently, whilst also bringing in a few permanent additions, and it’s coincided with a supreme upturn in form.
On the loan front, Portsmouth have borrowed Adil Aouchiche from Sunderland, Isaac Hayden from Newcastle United, Rob Atkinson from Bristol City and Kaide Gordon from Liverpool. Permanently, Pompey have also concluded deals for Hayden Matthews, Cohen Bramall, Thomas Waddingham and Ben Killip. The latter is a backup goalkeeper, but the other three were largely expected to play a first team role.
That being said, it’d be unfair on Mousinho to say Portsmouth have only improved because of the transfer window. He has been able to work with new additions, but absentees have made his job trickier.
For example, Lang and Williams both started the reverse fixture, but both look set to be absent with the former out for the season. Meanwhile, new centre backs Atkinson and Matthews have already picked up injuries and will miss this clash. That’s led to Pompey dipping their toe into the market again – free agent defender Alexander Milosevic joined only last Friday, and could be set to make his Portsmouth debut against Argyle.
Whichever way you cut it, Portsmouth are a much better team than they were last time around. Mousinho has got his side purring; whilst Argyle may know what to expect, stopping them will be an awful lot tougher than it was in November.
Prediction
As I alluded to earlier, Argyle’s clashes with Pompey tend to bring drama. However, when one team is playing so much better than the other, the result tends to follow. Portsmouth won 3-0 at Fratton Park during Derek Adams’ relegation season in 2018/19, whilst Argyle were comfortably the better side in a 3-1 win at Home Park during their 2022/23 title winning campaign.
With that in mind, and even though I’m tempted to plump for yet another 2-2, it’s hard to see anything other than a home victory. Argyle may score and make things interesting, but I suspect the hosts will have far too much quality given how they’ve been playing. 3-1 Portsmouth.