There was a palpable air of irony surrounding Home Park on Easter Monday. Plymouth Argyle won, and they won well, with the 3-1 scoreline against promotion-chasing Coventry City not at all flattering the hosts. However, due to results elsewhere, Miron Muslic’s men now appear closer to the relegation trapdoor than ever before.
When Argyle’s relegation is finally confirmed, and it surely will be sooner rather than later, there will be plenty of time for finger pointing. We’ll have all summer to dissect the campaign and play the blame game – I’d perhaps note that making arguably the worst managerial appointment in the history of the club was probably a bad idea. For now though, Argyle are still technically alive, and we can look ahead to another potentially pivotal game in the dogfight.
On Saturday, the Pilgrims will travel to Lancashire to face Preston North End. Whilst the goal difference factor makes it all but impossible for Argyle to finish above their opponents, this is a huge game for Paul Heckingbottom’s side in its own right. They’re without a win in seven in all competitions, sit just three points above the relegation zone, and have announced a series of offers to pack out Deepdale for what could be a vital final home game of the season.
Depending on the result of the early kick-off, Argyle could find themselves effectively relegated before they even take to the field on Saturday. Equally, they could still have everything to play for, so let’s take a closer look.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Preston
26th October 2024: Plymouth Argyle 3 (Issaka 55’, Gray 82’, Whittaker 90+2’) Preston North End 3 (Greenwood 16’, Frokjaer-Jensen 45+3’, Potts 48’)
One of the most bonkers games of the season. Argyle certainly didn’t deserve a point back in October, but who cares? They got one, and there were chaotic scenes after the equaliser, as the Greens came from three goals down to avoid defeat for the first time in almost two decades.
Preston arrived at Home Park under the command of Heckingbottom, having parted ways with former Argyle gaffer Ryan Lowe after just a single game. That may sound chaotic (and, to be fair, it certainly is), but Heckingbottom brought Preston to Devon on a stable footing. He’d experimented with a few formations in a relatively successful run, and opted to face Argyle with a 3-5-2.
Freddie Woodman lined up in goal, and had a back three in front of him who all had many years of experience as Preston players. Liam Lindsay is a classic, no-nonsense central centre back, and he was flanked by Jordan Storey and Andrew Hughes. The wing backs – Robbie Brady on the left and the familiar face of Kaine Kesler-Hayden on the right – would be trusted to provide the width at both ends of the pitch.
The midfield was expected to complement each other well. Ali McCann and captain Ben Whiteman were slightly more defensively minded, and they were joined in the trio by Mads Frokjaer-Jensen, who would be encouraged to push forward. Ahead of them all was a strike partnership of Emil Riis and Leeds United loanee Sam Greenwood.
Argyle had the first glimpses of goal, but Preston quickly gained control of the contest. Dan Grimshaw made a smart save to deny Greenwood an opener, but the respite would only be temporary. With 16 minutes on the clock, Kesler-Hayden would break free in the Argyle area. Grimshaw made another save, but the rebound fell to Greenwood, whose effort deflected in off Kornel Szucs. A lucky goal, but probably a deserved lead for the visitors.
Argyle kept themselves in the game, but suffered a sucker punch on the stroke of half time. From nowhere, Riis found himself with the ball, and Preston were two-on-two going forward. Victor Palsson, finally playing at centre back for the first time at Argyle, failed to recognise the danger, failed to put in a tackle, and Frokjaer-Jensen was free to fire home Preston’s second. I have to admit, my love for the Iceland international dwindled during this game.
There was no slowing down after the interval. Earlier, Brad Potts came off the bench to replace the injured Brady, and he wasted no time getting in on the act. Kesler-Hayden was involved again, as his pinpoint through ball found his fellow wing back, and Potts calmly lifted the ball over Grimshaw for 3-0. To make matters worse, in trying to prevent the goal Argyle skipper Joe Edwards picked up an injury that would see him sidelined for months.
So, at that point everything that could go wrong was going wrong for the Pilgrims. They’d have something to cling onto though – shortly after going three behind, Woodman would push an Adam Randell free kick back into the danger area, allowing Freddie Issaka to tap in. It was his first, and thus far only, senior goal. And whilst it was nice to see an academy graduate get off the mark, it was only to be a consolation on a disappointing afternoon.
Or was it? With eight minutes remaining, Argyle really did make things interesting. Bali Mumba won the ball well, before putting in a stupendous cross on his weaker foot to tee up Andre Gray. The 33-year-old, making his first Home Park appearance, nodded home to set up a barnstorming finish.
Preston had countless opportunities to put the game to bed across the 90 minutes. But at this point it was all Argyle, and they’d get their reward two minutes into stoppage time. This time it was Randell putting in a cross with his weaker foot, and he found Mustapha Bundu. Bundu set up Morgan Whittaker on his favoured left foot, and he somehow snuck his shot past Woodman at his near post. 3-3. Incredibly. Ridiculously.
Argyle could even have won it, as Gray had a shot well saved by Woodman even further into added time. But they’d be forced to settle for a point – there are worse things to settle for when you go 3-0 down at home. Argyle had fewer shots, decisively lost the xG battle and were thoroughly dominated in the air, but they didn’t lose.
It may not end up meaning very much, but this fightback will live long in the memory.
Similarities
I must admit, my head would have been on Mars had I watched the reverse fixture as a Preston fan. Not winning a game when you’re the dominant side is bad enough, but failing to win such a game after going 3-0 up is extraordinary. Preston’s game management was non-existent, and whatever hair I have left would’ve been torn out after the equaliser.
Then again, perhaps I ought not to be so surprised. Mentality, and game management specifically, has been a problem for Heckingbottom’s side all season, and they seriously struggle to hold onto leads. Only Norwich City (30) have dropped more points from winning positions this season than Preston’s 28 – if they kept even half of those points, they’d be on the brink of the play-offs. If Argyle can get into their opponents’ heads, the scars of the reverse fixture could return very swiftly.
In terms of style, little has changed at Deepdale since the sides last met. Heckingbottom is still in charge, and his system has been consistent. Whilst the exact shape can’t be set in stone, Preston have strongly favoured lining up with a back three, particularly after strengthening the back line in January (more on that in a moment). They also still prefer to go direct when they’re in possession, with only Lancashire rivals Blackburn Rovers completing more long passes across the Championship this season.
One key strength Preston have maintained is their aerial ability. I only alluded to it earlier, but Heckingbottom’s side totally dominated Argyle in the air during the reverse fixture. They won 67% of their aerial duels that day, and it allowed them to maintain control for the majority of the encounter. Across the season, their aerial duel success rate stands at 54%. Not quite as high, but still good enough to rank as the second-highest figure in the league, behind only Sheffield Wednesday.
The final point I’d make here is that Preston remain quite a nasty team. I’ve tried to find a way of wording that better, but sometimes blunt honesty works best. Heckingbottom’s men will commit tactical fouls, run the clock down, and generally engage in football’s dark arts whenever they deem it necessary.
Once again, the reverse fixture acts as a good example. That afternoon, Preston saw three players pick up bookings. All three were for time wasting and one, Ryan Ledson, was an unused substitute. That’s been a consistent theme throughout the season. Heckingbottom’s side have picked up more yellow cards (117) than any other team in the league, whilst only Watford (six) have seen more players dismissed than Preston’s five. They “lead” the Championship’s ill-discipline table by quite a margin.
With Argyle themselves embracing the dark arts a little more under Muslic, don’t be surprised if this is somewhat of a stop-start affair.
Differences
As I mentioned earlier, Preston have improved their back line over the winter transfer window. One arrival in particular could be in for quite the afternoon.
At the start of the year, Lewis Gibson was absent from Argyle’s matchday squad with a mysterious, undefined injury. As it turns out, that injury could be actively defined as “signing for Preston North End.” He made his first Preston appearance away to Luton Town in mid-January, and has been a mainstay ever since. He even scored his first goal last time out against Hull City, meaning a player who only ever scored once for Argyle currently has more goals for his new club than Whittaker.
Gibson was the only permanent arrival at Deepdale in January, but Preston also made use of the loan market. On deadline day they raided another Championship club, Watford, to complete the signing of Scotland international centre back Ryan Porteous. They also brought in 18-year-old left back Jayden Maghoma on loan from Premier League side Brentford. With injuries to the likes of Potts, McCann and Ledson, both could be in line to start.
Expect, therefore, to see a much-changed back line. And that’s not all – for the third game in succession, Argyle will be playing a reverse fixture against a different goalkeeper. A season-curtailing injury for Woodman means 34-year-old backup David Cornell is set to get the nod.
In truth, I’m not sure how much of an advantage this will prove to be for Argyle. Yes, the Greens were able to exploit the deficiencies of second-choice ‘keeper Brad Collins against Coventry, but Cornell has looked solid enough ever since he’s been required to deputise. And given Woodman’s nightmarish outing at Home Park, Cornell could even be considered an upgrade for this particular fixture.
Moving away from personnel, I feel one of the reasons behind Preston’s recent form is their downturn in long passing. Heckingbottom’s side went into the game at Home Park with some of the best long ball statistics in the league, and I’d argue that was demonstrable. Whilst it wasn’t lofted, Kesler-Hayden’s ball to play Potts in for Preston’s third goal was a prime example of a long-range pass proving mightily effective.
As the data shows, that effectiveness has dwindled as the campaign has progressed. Having ranked as one of the league’s best back in October, Preston now only sit 14th for their long pass success rate of 40%. Such an obvious strength has become a slight weakness, and I feel Heckingbottom has struggled to find another way of breaking teams down.
I’d also point towards set pieces, which didn’t stick out ahead of the reverse fixture. Nowadays, attacking corners in particular are a significant weakness. Given how much I’ve praised their aerial ability, that may come as a shock. However, Preston have scored with just 1.1% of their corners this season, the lowest proportionate figure in the division.
With Argyle improving their own set pieces since the arrival of Hubert Auer to the touchline, it’d be wonderful if that acted as a key differential this weekend.
Prediction
A tough one to call. Preston outplayed Argyle in their own back yard, but the Greens have shown a never-say-die attitude across much of the season, particularly under Muslic. Meanwhile, Preston have shown themselves to be, frankly, bottlers.
£5 tickets will ensure a raucous atmosphere at Deepdale and, given Argyle’s struggles away from home, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them fall behind. However, I don’t think that’ll be the end of the story. I foresee the Pilgrims equalising, and they may even win it late on from a dead-ball situation. It may not matter, particularly if Luton win the early kick off, but I’m going to back us here: 2-1 Argyle.