As the most loyal (and frankly daft) Plymouth Argyle fans trek up north to Sunderland, Adam Price gives us his customary preview on the game.

Reader, I’m struggling. Why do I do this to myself? Why do any of us do this to ourselves?

At the moment, blind loyalty is probably the only thing keeping us connected to Plymouth Argyle. The sort of loyalty one may show an ailing pet, encouraging the poor thing to plough on rather than facing the kindest option of putting it out of its misery. The sort of loyalty that, by all accounts, Morgan Whittaker didn’t show the club on Wednesday night.

I tire of saying it, but Argyle’s last fixture marked a new low point in their season. Sure, Burnley are one of the better sides in the league, but they arrived at Home Park having scored just once in four games. But after a hugely disappointing display against Queens Park rangers at the weekend, Argyle delivered an all-timer “hold my beer” performance, going in at half time 5-0 down for what must be the first time in living memory (and possibly ever).

Still, at least it’s only one of the longest trips in English football up next. Sunderland, like Burnley, are in the hunt for automatic promotion, and haven’t lost a single game at home all season. Argyle, of course, are the only team in the division not to have won a league game away from home. We’ll go into the details now, and I invite you to join me, but I’d also forgive you for spending the next few minutes doing literally anything else.

The reverse fixture

Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Sunderland

14th September 2024: Plymouth Argyle 3 (Ballard og 54’, Hardie pen 73’, Edwards 90+3’) Sunderland 2 (Roberts pen 24’, Mundle 86’)

 

One of the highlights, if not the highlight, of Argyle’s season. The Greens, who had looked pretty hopeless in the build up to the game, put in a wonderful performance to defeat the high-flying Black Cats. How wonderful would it be to hear a similar line this weekend?

Regis Le Bris’ side had won all four league games before their trip to Home Park, and used various systems in their first few fixtures to post their perfect record. The one constant was the inclusion of a back four, and that’s something Sunderland stuck with in Devon, eventually opting for a 4-3-3.

Anthony Patterson started in goal, with a centre back duo of Luke O’Nien and Dan Ballard supported by Dennis Cirkin at left back and Trai Hume on the right. In midfield, Dan Neil sat deep, allowing for the frightfully young duo of Jobe Bellingham and Chris Rigg to push forward from the centre of the park. That would become relevant very early in the encounter.

The front three was led by Eliezer Mayenda in the middle, with his primary goal to provide support for two exciting wingers. On the left, a former Argyle target (and eventual £2 million Sunderland signing) Romaine Mundle was trusted to start. Meanwhile on the right, another familiar name in Patrick Roberts was keen to do some damage going forward.

Sunderland started the better of the two sides, without really creating any major openings, before the game’s first major incident after 24 minutes. Chris Rigg, advancing from midfield as I touched upon earlier, got himself into the penalty area and…well, let’s not sugarcoat it, dived to win a penalty against Bali Mumba. Once Roberts tucked the spot kick past Dan Grimshaw, a winless Argyle may have started to feel they were in the midst of a grimly familiar tale.

To their credit, the Pilgrims refused to crumble. Darko Gyabi had a good chance to level the scores before the break (I shouldn’t downplay it, it may have been Argyle’s best goalscoring chance of the season up to that point) and, despite Wayne Rooney’s side going into half time 1-0 down, the pressure continued to build. It eventually bore fruit; 54 minutes into the game, a vicious Whittaker effort was stupendously tipped onto the bar by Patterson, before the ball rebounded in off the unfortunate Ballard for Argyle’s equaliser.

In another life, that may have been the low point of Ballard’s day, but he’d be involved again very shortly afterwards. After a poor touch in his own penalty area, Ballard clumsily slammed into Ryan Hardie to give away the second penalty of the afternoon. Hardie scored it himself – his only league goal of the season even at this stage – and Argyle were starting to sense the potential for a huge victory.

They’d be hit with a sucker punch with four minutes of normal time to play. Cutting in from the right, Mundle found the far corner to level proceedings at 2-2. So, was that to be it? Not a chance. Deep into stoppage time, after Patterson spilled a long-range effort from Kornel Szucs, it was captain fantastic Joe Edwards (who else?!) on hand to turn the ball home. Cue delirium in the Devonport End, and three points to the hosts.

Expected goals had the game practically dead even, with Argyle just about edging it 1.76 to 1.75. And Sunderland did carry a threat throughout, particularly with the way they dribbled. Roberts was an active runner, whilst Rigg was a threat when advancing from midfield, but the star man in this regard was Mundle. He attempted and completed more dribbles than any other player on the field, as well as winning more fouls (five) than anyone else. He was a constant thorn in Argyle’s side.

But this afternoon was all about the Pilgrims. After a troubling few months, and a slow start to the season, this would prove to be a rare moment of pure joy in what would turn out to be a tumultuous campaign.

Similarities

Running with the ball remains a vitally important part of Sunderland’s game plan going forward. Their dribbling caused Argyle plenty of problems last time around, and that looks set to be their primary method of attack again.

For the stats we have available, which this time include games up to but not including the midweek fixtures, Sunderland have attempted more dribbles than any other team in the league (489). They also top the charts when it comes to dribbles completed, with their total of 231 comfortably clear of the 209 of West Bromwich Albion, who rank second. Sunderland’s dribble success rate of 47% is about average, but given the volume of dribbles they’re attempting it only needs to be average to be threatening.

Sunderland’s dribbling is a facet of an attack that is always potent. Last time around, they may have (barely) lost the xG battle with Argyle, but they did have more shots than the Pilgrims (17 to 13). Even if this Argyle team was firing on all cylinders, it wouldn’t surprise me if the same proved to be true on Saturday. Sunderland have taken 371 shots in the league this season, a total only beaten by Leeds United and Middlesbrough, and they’ll be looking to add a significant number to that tally this weekend.

I also think Sunderland’s promotion push has been aided by stability in their side. They’ve added some quality to their ranks since the reverse fixture (more on that in a moment), but the core of the team that day is still around and, invariably, delivering. Ten of the starting 11 from September’s clash will be available for the Black Cats this weekend, and last time out against Derby County eight of them started. It’s not the hardest 11 to predict, but Le Bris doesn’t seem the sort to want to mess with a winning formula. Thus far, it’s serving him well.

For the optimists looking to cling onto a straw of hope, there is a similarity from the reverse fixture that Argyle could look to exploit. Sunderland may have caught the eye with their dribbling last time around, but Argyle made a few encouraging runs of their own, largely through Bali Mumba and Ibrahim Cissoko. For me, Sunderland’s tackling hasn’t improved to the extent that they can easily counter that threat.

In the preview for the reverse fixture, I mentioned that Sunderland had posted one of the poorest tackle success numbers in the league. At the time, that could be negated by the small sample size provided by league fixtures to that point, but the trend has continued. Having made 445 tackles and been collectively dribbled past on 208 occasions, Sunderland’s implied tackle success sits at 68%. Only Portsmouth have posted a worse figure in the Championship.

Sunderland’s lineup is probably predictable, and in all likelihood I imagine the strengths they’ve carried throughout the season will prove too much for Argyle. But I suppose anything can happen.

Differences

As we saw with Burnley in midweek, it’s possible we may see a slight adjustment to Sunderland’s shape from the reverse fixture. I’m not expecting any huge surprises, and a system with four at the back will very much be the order of the day. However, I wouldn’t be shocked to see some subtle changes in midfield from the last clash between the sides.

The 4-3-3 Le Bris deployed at Home Park was an attempt to get his midfield runners into the game. It worked to some extent, but the protection offered to the defence was evidently inadequate. I wouldn’t expect the 4-3-3 to be used this time around; it was in a losing cause, and it’s actually been used rarely by Sunderland this season. 4-2-3-1 has been their most common shape, whilst more recently Le Bris has opted for a 4-4-2 to allow Mayenda to play in a strike partnership with Wilson Isidor.

In terms of personnel, as I mentioned before I’m not expecting to see too many changes. However, there is one key difference in Sunderland’s side: Mundle, the player I’d argue was their star man at Home Park, is set to be unavailable. The 21-year-old has been out injured since playing against Coventry City at the start of November, and isn’t expected to be back until next month at the earliest. Sunderland have capable replacements, but anyone who watched him last time around will tell you he’s set to be a big miss.

There are some other players to mention. Isidor only emerged from the bench at Home Park, but seems to have the edge over Mayenda, and I’d expect him to be favoured if Sunderland opt for just one striker. Chris Mepham is another I expect to feature; the Bournemouth loanee earned his place in the side in the immediate aftermath of Ballard’s Home Park disasterclass, and the smart money would be on the Welsh international getting the nod to start this weekend.

Enzo Le Fee is another name worth mentioning. He’s been Sunderland’s sole addition of the winter transfer window, and has arrived at the Stadium of Light to much fanfare. In the summer, Le Fee moved for a large…fee (around £20m in the rumour) from French side Rennes to Roma. Whilst he hasn’t made the grade at the Italian giants, his signing is still a serious coup for Sunderland. He’s already showcased his creative talents since joining, and is in line to make his home debut for the club.

Sunderland have quality all over the pitch, so to combat that, I’ll once again end a section with a tiny beacon of hope. For me, their defence isn’t in the same exceptional shape it was before their trip to Home Park. At that stage, they’d only conceded one goal all season – an O’Nien own goal in a 3-1 win over Portsmouth. Whilst their record is still one of the league’s best, it isn’t quite as formidable as it once was.

One explanation for that could be the way they’re now allowing their opponents the opportunity to shoot from more dangerous positions. Before the reverse fixture, 58% of the shots Sunderland faced had been from inside their penalty area, which at the time was the third-lowest figure in the league. Now, that figure has shot up to 70%, the fourth-highest. Admittedly, the sample size last time was very small but, since their remarkable early season run, the Black Cats have been facing shots from more dangerous areas, naturally conceding more regularly as a result.

Do I think Argyle have enough going forward to take advantage? Draw your own conclusions.

Prediction

Usually, I try to make these predictions reasonable. Even with the furore surrounding Argyle, I try my best to take the emotion out of the situation and present a score I genuinely believe to be the most likely, which has occasionally meant avoiding the doomsday predictions we often see pre-game on social media. I’ll try to do the same again, but it’s a struggle.

See, I simply cannot see how Sunderland don’t win this game comfortably. Stranger things have happened than an Argyle victory this weekend, but not many. The Pilgrims come into this one having shipped five goals to the team ranked 20th for attacking xG. Sunderland rank 5th.

I say this because I genuinely believe it to be the midpoint of all possibilities: 4-0 Sunderland.