We’re back after the international break for the final stretch of the 2024-25 campaign. And, if we’re being honest, Plymouth Argyle need a miracle.
Miron Muslic’s Greens find themselves marooned at the bottom of the Championship table. They’re six points from safety, have by far the worst goal difference in the league, and have just eight games to haul themselves out of trouble. Most worryingly, they’re showing no signs that they’re capable of pulling it off – for many, the 3-2 defeat to Derby County a fortnight ago was the final nail in an already pretty secure coffin.
If Argyle are to survive, they’d probably need play-off form at least from now until the end of the season. They’d do themselves plenty of favours by starting that run at Vicarage Road on Saturday. Argyle travel to face Watford, still managed by Tom Cleverley, whose side look to be mid-table certainties as the season enters its dying embers. The Hornets won’t be on the beach just yet though – they’re still only five points outside the play-offs, and will see the visit of Argyle as an ideal opportunity to kickstart a late-season run.
For the Pilgrims, a second successive win on the road would go a long way to aiding their dwindling ambitions. We have practically reached the stage of the season where a win is simply paramount.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Watford
22nd November 2024: Plymouth Argyle 2 (Gray 23’, 90+6’) Watford 2 (Bayo 8’, Porteous 41’)
Every now and then, we as football fans witness a game where one player singlehandedly drags his team to a result. This was one of those occasions. Argyle were comfortably outplayed in front of the Sky cameras on a Friday night, but were carried to a draw by a player who doesn’t even play for them anymore, and who has failed to score in the Turkish second tier since his January departure.
For their part, Watford came to Home Park and lined up in a system with three at the back. The nature of their 3-4-3 shape put significant onus on the wing backs – Yasser Larouci on the left and Ryan Andrews on the right – to provide width at both ends of the field. Further back, James Morris, Matthew Pollock and Ryan Porteous formed the defensive line, with Daniel Bachmann in goal.
The midfield included the industrious Moussa Sissoko alongside the more technical Imran Louza, with more attacking options ahead of them in the form of Kwadwo Baah and Georgian international Giorgi Chakvetadze. The attack would be spearheaded by the dangerous Vakoun Bayo, who came into this one having scored four goals in a single game against Sheffield Wednesday at the start of the month.
He’d quickly have an impact. It took eight minutes for the first shot of the game, but it came from Bayo, and he predictably scored. Larouci crossed in from the left, Julio Pleguezuelo failed to cut it out, and Bayo was on hand to (just about) force the ball over the line. It was one of the stranger goals I’ve seen this season, and certainly the strangest celebrated, with Watford’s fans only seeming to realise they’d scored around three weeks after the ball hit the net.
The game reached a bit of a lull after the goal, with Watford in control but not creating too many chances, before suddenly Argyle equalised against the run of play. Just inside the Watford half, Lewis Gibson played a long pass to Andre Gray, Argyle’s hero on the night, inside the box. He still had plenty to do but, rather than take a touch, Gray hit a volley and finished deliciously past Bachmann into the bottom corner. It was a delightful goal, very much an “I’ve still got it” moment for Gray in the finishing department, and it got his side on level terms from nowhere.
That moment sparked Argyle into life. Two minutes later, Morgan Whittaker saw a trademark long shot whizz just wide of the post, whilst Michael Obafemi also spurned a half-chance from the edge of the box. The Greens were getting on top, but the period of pressure was halted as quickly as it arrived.
Centre back Porteous ought to have scored from a corner after 31 minutes, dragging a presentable opportunity wide, but he made no mistake ten minutes later. If Argyle’s equaliser was a wonderful goal, this was a woeful one to concede. Louza’s free kick over the top found Pollock free in the Argyle box, and he crossed for fellow defender Porteous in acres of space. The Scot fired home and Argyle, having worked so hard to get themselves a foothold in the game, found themselves back to square one from a set piece.
Watford carried their 2-1 lead into the second half, and in truth looked the far likelier to score again. Chakvetadze forced Dan Grimshaw into an unorthodox save, whilst the Argyle ‘keeper made a superb stop to deny Bayo from close range. But Watford still held their lead, and they’d surely keep it, right?
Wrong. Deep into stoppage time, Gray received a pass from Mustapha Bundu in the corner of the box. It was more of a crossing position, and he certainly had no right to score from there, but he chose to shoot anyway. Thank goodness he did; the ball flew past a bedazzled Bachmann and into the top corner, sparking wild celebrations from players, staff and fans alike. Inexplicably, Argyle had managed to salvage a draw despite being completely outplayed.
When I say the Greens were outplayed, it almost feels like an understatement. Watford won convincingly on xG, racking up a total of 2.26 to Argyle’s paltry 0.44, and the Hornets really ought to have been out of sight long before the final whistle. Against his former employers though, Gray simply wasn’t going to let this game slide away. It was only fleeting, and Argyle’s late moments of magic seemed to dry up in general shortly afterwards. But for one night only, the Pilgrims had a new star.
Similarities
Given Watford’s reputation, some of you may have been surprised to hear Cleverley is still in charge. Indeed, his position was rumoured to be under threat a couple of months ago, but a traditionally trigger-happy club have opted to keep the 35-year-old in the dugout for now. It means at least one Championship side has kept a former Manchester United player in their dugout for the entirety of the season.
With the same man in charge, much of the style remains predictably similar. For instance, running at defences remains a key part of the attacking approach. Watford came into the reverse fixture having attempted the third-highest number of dribbles in the league, and attempted double Argyle’s total number on the night. As of now, Watford have attempted 618 dribbles in the league, completing 294. Once again, they rank third across the division in both metrics.
The style is also similar defensively. Watford don’t tend to overcommit, preferring to keep their shape in the face of opposition attacks. This was demonstrated by the fact that they only completed seven tackles in the reverse fixture to Argyle’s 14, despite possession numbers being very similar. Across the campaign, the Hornets have completed 572 tackles (ranking 21st) and only been dribbled past on 220 occasions (ranking 23rd). Playing through them, therefore, will be tricky, and Argyle under Muslic may need to win several aerial battles to give themselves a chance.
Watford have also kept a couple of their key dangermen from November’s fixture. Bayo, scorer of the opening goal, is an obvious place to start. He’s not actually been a regular in the Hornets’ starting lineup of late, having last started a league game in early February and occasionally being overlooked for the likes of Mamadou Doumbia or even Edo Kayembe as a false nine. However, Bayo’s xG figure of 12.31 remains in the Championship’s top five, and he’ll prove tough for Argyle to deal with should he feature.
I’d also mention Chakvetadze. He didn’t get a goal contribution back in November, but in the eyes of many he was the man who made Watford tick. This year he leads his clubs ranks for shots taken and big chances created, whilst his total of 70 key passes is beaten only by Finn Azaz (77) across the Championship. We may have to hope the early kick off means he’s carrying some fatigue from his international exploits with Georgia, though I wouldn’t bank on it.
Contrary to some of Argyle’s recent opponents, Watford have an air of predictability. Sure, they have their differences, and we’ll come onto those very shortly. But the Hornets have the same head coach, the same dangermen and a similar style. Given what happened last time, Argyle will need to significantly raise their performance levels to get a win without Gray.
Differences
One of the more obvious points of difference is the shape. Whilst Cleverley’s employment has been continuous, and whilst he’s generally stuck to the same style in both defence and attack, in recent weeks he’s ditched his three at the back system. Since facing Norwich City in early February, Cleverley has exclusively deployed a 4-2-3-1.
That may have something to do with an enforced reshuffling of the defence. On deadline day Watford opted to allow Porteous, scorer of their second at Home Park in November, leave on loan to divisional rivals Preston North End. It was one of the more surprising deals of the window, and I’d argue he hasn’t been sufficiently replaced. Irishman James Abankwah was drafted in from Udinese, but his suspension for this game means any prospect of reverting to a back three is probably dead on arrival.
There are just a couple of other personnel changes to cover. Tom Dele-Bashiru, who missed the reverse fixture through injury, is available again and has been a regular in midfield as of late. Meanwhile, a knock to Bachmann means we’re likely to see a change in goal. Winter signing Egil Selvik, who just so happened to be available from Udinese, should get the nod after a solid few games.
More generally, it may surprise you to know that Watford have held onto leads quite successfully this season. They got their noses in front twice at Home Park, blowing their advantage on both occasions, but they’ve only dropped seven points from winning positions all season. Only three teams have dropped fewer points from winning positions this year, including Argyle themselves, although their tally of six is more to do with the fact they rarely take the lead at all.
If Watford do score first again this time around, you’d expect them to hold on. However, getting themselves in front may prove easier said than done. Whilst they shone going forward in the reverse fixture, and they went into that game with some strong attacking statistics, their numbers have regressed in recent weeks. Right now, they appear to be finding things far more difficult in front of goal.
For example, they went into the reverse fixture having had the fifth-highest number of big chances in the league, and created three more on the night. Nowadays, their total of 69 big chances across the campaign is only good enough to rank 15th. It’s a similar story with their xG numbers – before their trip to Home Park, only two Championship teams had posted a higher xG figure than Watford, but they now rank 9th with 47.85. Not a horrid figure by any means, but nowhere near the heights they were hitting in November.
If Watford do create chances and get a breakthrough, they’ll probably win at a canter. Fail to do so, and Argyle could slowly find themselves growing into the game, and give themselves at least a chance of claiming victory.
Prediction
I suppose many of Argyle’s victories this season, particularly since the arrival of Muslic, have come when we least expect them. Liverpool is the obvious example, but nobody expected Argyle to win at Portsmouth after their home humbling by Sheffield Wednesday. Given the situation, an Argyle win this weekend would be similarly shocking.
It can’t be ruled out, of course, and for my money Watford are a worse side than the one Argyle faced in November. However, the percentages are very much in their favour. Let’s not forget that this is Argyle’s second visit to Vicarage Road this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the same score as when the two sides met in the EFL Cup: 2-0 Watford.