Adam Price looks ahead to the first Plymouth Argyle away match of 2025. Can the long awaited win finally come?
In these previews, the whole idea is to take a forward look at what may be to come for Plymouth Argyle. This time though, one could easily write an entire piece about events of the last week. Following a Boxing Day demolition in Coventry, Argyle put in a similar level of performance against Oxford United, and stepped up to secure a draw in the last minute against Bristol City. Oh, and there was the small matter of head coach Wayne Rooney’s departure, with director of football Neil Dewsnip seemingly set to follow.
It’s been a week of social media scrolling, with another announcement often feeling as though it’s just around the corner. And due to the nature of English football, I can’t imagine that’s likely to stop anytime soon. Argyle are back in action on the pitch on Saturday, travelling to Staffordshire to take on Stoke City, a team with whom they’ve shared plenty of recent history. For just a moment, it looked as though the man the Greens lost to the Potters would be back in the Argyle dugout, but for now at least those rumours have grown cold.
Argyle have already faced Stoke in the league this season, and we’ve already previewed that fixture. As such, we’re going to do things a little differently this time around. Rather than look at the style of play, strengths and weaknesses of our forthcoming opponents, we’ll instead take a look at that reverse fixture, and see what has remained stable and what has changed in the months since that encounter.
The Reverse Fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Stoke
31st August 2024: Plymouth Argyle 0 Stoke City 1 (Manhoef 83’)
Argyle’s previous meeting with Stoke was just their fourth league game of the season, and sixth in total under Rooney. Having only beaten Cheltenham Town in the League Cup up to this point, the Greens were still looking for their first league win of the campaign. As it was, ex-Argyle manager Steven Schumacher gave them a taste of what they’d been missing.
Stoke lined up with a 4-3-3. Talented goalkeeper Victor Johansson started in goal, and would end up having a big say on the outcome. He’d be supported by a defence including Argyle’s 2023/24 loanee Ashley Phillips. He was eventually hauled off after 74 minutes after struggling to deal with the introduction of Muhamed Tijani from Argyle’s bench, and replaced by another Argyle old boy in Ben Gibson.
The setup of the midfield came as a surprise to Argyle. Having played with a 4-2-3-1 at the start of the campaign, Schumacher enacted a subtle change by switching to a single pivot in midfield. Sitting deep, Wouter Burger gave license to an exciting duo of Bae Jun-ho and Andrew Moran to push forward. It put Argyle on the back foot, and meant that the midfield had time to play telling balls in behind the defence, a tactic Stoke would look to deploy all game.
The major beneficiaries, of course, were in the front line. Ryan Mmaee started up front, and was flanked by Liverpool loanee Lewis Koumas, who came into the match on the back of two goals in as many games. But the main threat was Million Manhoef – he constantly troubled the Argyle defence with his running off the ball, and actually missed two big goalscoring chances before his eventual winner in the 83rd minute.
Stoke weren’t necessarily concerned about keeping the ball; they knew that direct counter attacks would prove more fruitful against Argyle than drawn-out patterns of play. As such, across many metrics, Argyle looked to have the better of the game. With 57%, the Pilgrims had the lion’s share of possession, and they managed to win ten corners compared with Stoke’s four. Ultimately though, they didn’t create any big chances, and they didn’t score.
This was at a time in the campaign when creativity was sorely lacking in Argyle’s ranks. Rami Al Hajj had signed for the Greens the day prior to this game, but wasn’t registered in time to feature. Therefore Argyle’s lineup on the day, which in most areas was about as strong as it could have been, had a gaping hole. The game came before Adam Randell switched to his deeper midfield role, and Darko Gyabi in the ‘number 10’ position proved simply ineffective against Schumacher’s side.
With all that mentioned, one could argue that the ultimate difference was in the goalkeeping department. That isn’t a dig at Conor Hazard, who started between the sticks for Argyle that day, and ended the game with a broken ankle for his troubles. Hazard had a solid game overall, making six saves, but I think he’ll be disappointed by the nature of the goal he conceded. Manhoef’s effort to the near post was possibly one of the easiest he faced that afternoon, but it slipped through.
Johansson, on the other hand, was on another level. Argyle created no clear openings, but made life tough for the Swede with some accurate long-range shooting. Johannson was up to the task, making seven saves and keeping a clean sheet despite facing efforts with a total post-shot xG value of 1.23.
For me, Stoke were deserved winners back in August. They had Argyle beaten in chance creation, demonstrated by their total xG figure reaching 1.65, with the Greens back on 0.77. I do often wonder though if things may have been different had the ‘keepers on the day been swapped around.
Similarities
Going into the game at Home Park, Johansson probably had a case for being one of the best goalkeepers in the Championship. Right now, there is an argument that he’s simply the best in the division. I still think Michael Cooper and James Trafford edge him out, but Johansson is absolutely in the conversation.
For the stats we have available, which for this piece include the games up to but not including the New Year’s Day fixtures, Johansson has made a total of 96 saves across the campaign, comfortably more than any other ‘keeper. Sure, that reflects how poorly Stoke have protected him, but Johansson has generally been equal to everything thrown his way. That applies to crosses too – Johansson’s total of 27 high claims is a number beaten only by a certain Mr Cooper of Sheffield United (28).
The standard post-shot xG run through? Of course. Prior to keeping another clean sheet against Burnley on Wednesday, Johansson had conceded 32 goals from a total post-shot xG figure of 40.98. That equates to 8.98 goals prevented, which is again the highest in the league by quite a margin. With Stoke facing many shots that isn’t necessarily surprising, and Johansson’s prevented rate of 1.28 is edged out by Cooper, Trafford and Aynsley Pears of Blackburn Rovers, but it’s still an outstanding number.
Johansson will act as a roadblock against Argyle once again, and there’s another strength that has carried over from the Schumacher era at Stoke to the present day. In the preview for the reverse fixture, I touched upon Stoke’s proficiency for last-ditch defending, and mentioned their total of goalline clearances as an example. In that regard, nothing has changed.
As was the case ahead of the game at Home Park, and indeed for much of last season, Stoke have completed more goalline clearances than anyone else. Their total of six goalline clearances doesn’t only top the league’s rankings, it’s also significantly above the average – Argyle are joint-eighth on that particular list with two. Stoke are also strong when the situation isn’t quite as desperate, with their total of 117 shots blocked higher than any other Championship side.
There is something else to mention, which could prove troublesome for Saturday’s hosts: inconsistency remains rife at the Bet 365. After impressing in the game at Home Park, the Potters followed things up with a highly disappointing 1-0 defeat to Oxford United that ultimately cost Schumacher his job.
I think much of the inconsistency can be put down to muddled team selection. Under Schumacher, his successor Narcis Pelach, and even since Pelach’s dismissal, nobody at Stoke has seemed to be clear about the team’s best eleven. As such, numerous systems have been deployed, with trial and error not really leading to a definitive answer.
As I mentioned earlier, Stoke lined up with a 4-3-3 at Home Park, quite the surprise when they had deployed a 4-2-3-1 for the early part of the season. It worked, but since then things have felt even more clustered. Pelach would use those shapes every now and then, but often preferred systems with three at the back, making it even more bizarre that he chose to play a 4-4-2 on occasion. Following his departure, it’s been back to 4-2-3-1. An admission of a mistake? Or an indication that selections have generally been a mess?
Stoke have been such a basket case off the field, it appears Schuey roulette has been prevalent even without the presence of Schuey.
Differences
The best, and most obvious, place to start is the situation in the dugout. I don’t think anybody outside of Staffordshire saw Schumacher being dismissed as early as he was, whilst Pelach’s eventual demise was perhaps easier to predict. After a brief caretaker spell with Ryan Shawcross, Stoke have recently announced their third permanent head coach of the season: Mark Robins.
Robins was present, but not officially in the dugout, for Stoke’s 0-0 draw with Burnley on New Year’s Day. As such, this game marks a rare occasion where both the home and away supporters will be witnessing something new. As of right now, Mark Robins’ Stoke City are a complete mystery, and we have no real hints as to whether he’ll be a success. He’s undoubtedly an excellent coach, but plenty of excellent coaches have washed up in Stoke and failed to deliver.
At any other club though, I’d be highly optimistic about Robins’ chances. Just a year-and-a-half ago, he was a penalty shootout away from taking Coventry City from League Two to the Premier League. And his eventual sacking by Coventry this season felt incredibly harsh from the outside. At the time, Robins’ side had a total of 15 points, but an expected points tally of 23.09. Had Coventry been more fortunate, it’s highly unlikely Stoke would have been in a position to employ Robins.
Argyle will need to avoid Stoke’s new manager bounce, and they’ll also have to be aware of someone on the pitch who didn’t feature in the reverse fixture. From the preview that day, you may remember me mentioning that Stoke tend to play good football, but had an attack lacking a cutting edge to really propel them forward. That football went downhill under Pelach, but many of the attacking issues have been resolved by the arrival of Tom Cannon.
Like Al Hajj, Cannon was signed the night before Argyle took on Stoke at Home Park, so wasn’t eligible to feature. He made his debut against Oxford, and quickly hit the ground running. Last season, Stoke’s top score Andre Vidigal scored six goals in total – halfway through this campaign, Cannon is already sitting on eight. Most notably, he scored a remarkable four goals in a 51-minute spell against Portsmouth, helping secure a 6-1 victory for his side.
Cannon’s influence will be even more necessary on this occasion. That’s because Manhoef, matchwinner in the reverse fixture, is set to miss out through injury. And it’s not an issue that’s likely to resolve itself quickly, with some rumours suggesting he could be out of action until early April with his knee problem.
Manhoef initially went off injured in a 2-2 draw with Cardiff City, and in the four games since Stoke have struggled to threaten in his absence, scoring just once (through Cannon against Sunderland). Recent form would suggest they’re likely to push Bae Jun-ho into the front line, with Koumas switching to the right in Manhoef’s absence. That’d mean a start for Tatsuki Seko, another who wasn’t signed in time to feature at Home Park.
Whatever the case, Manhoef’s absence must be seen as a plus, particularly given he’s scored both times he’s faced Argyle. Whether Stoke’s remaining attackers can fill the void could go a long way to determining who wins the game.
Prediction
When a new manager has just arrived at a club, it can be hard to predict how his early games will transpire. When both teams have recently dispensed with their head coaches, such predictions become borderline impossible. So, let’s give it a go anyway.
Many would suspect that the new manager bounce caused by Robins’ arrival would be enough to see Stoke home. However, it could be argued that their “post-Pelach” bounce has already been and gone, with some highly positive results achieved against promotion-chasing Sunderland and Burnley. Rooney’s departure will undoubtedly give Argyle a short-term boost too.
My instinct, however, is that it won’t be enough. It won’t be fatal to Argyle’s season, but I suspect the hosts will have too much on this occasion. 2-0 Stoke.