Well, I guess the outstanding run of form couldn’t last forever.
After three victories, all stunning in their own right, against West Bromwich Albion, Liverpool and Millwall, Plymouth Argyle had a reality check in Lancashire. On the face of it, there is no shame in losing 2-0 to promotion-chasing Blackburn Rovers. There is perhaps some shame in conceding the first goal to Adam Forshaw, but at least we were able to move on quickly rather than debating the celebration at length over 24 hours after the event.
Saturday was disappointing, but I think there was an acceptance that Blackburn aren’t in our fight this season. For Wednesday’s fixture, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Argyle travel to Kenilworth Road to take on Luton Town, the only team to sit below the Pilgrims in the Championship table. Whilst no game can define a season at this stage, this is a bone fide “relegation six-pointer.”
Like Argyle, Luton also replaced their head coach mid-season. In January, former promotion winner Rob Edwards was relieved of his duties, and replaced five days later by Wycombe Wanderers legend Matt Bloomfield. So, what’s the story so far? And what will Bloomfield’s side offer in this massive clash?
The reverse fixture
Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Luton
27th September 2024: Plymouth Argyle 3 (Al Hajj 8’, Cissoko 69’, 90+3’) Luton Town 1 (Moses 71’)
In the Blackburn preview, I mentioned that I thought the reverse fixture with Rovers was the best Argyle performance of the Wayne Rooney era. Granted, the pickings were slim on that front, but I absolutely stand by that claim. However, the Home Park clash with Luton certainly runs it close. Under the lights on a Friday night in PL2, this was a joyous occasion.
Edwards’ Luton, as they were at the time, lined up with a 3-4-3. And that team included several members who played for the Hatters in the Premier League last season. That categorisation applies to goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski, as well as centre backs Teden Mengi and Reece Burke. Mark McGuinness, an arrival from Cardiff City, was the only member of the back line to be signed after Luton’s relegation.
In the wing back positions, Reuell Walters lined up on the right with Alfie Doughty on the left. The latter actually had a very strong season in the top flight before dropping down, but has had problems with injuries since. In the middle, former Argyle trialist Jordan Clark lined up in a duo with German midfielder Tom Krauss.
The attack was spearheaded by Elijah Adebayo. He scored ten goals in the Premier League last season, at an impressive rate of 0.62 goals per 90 minutes. Ideally, Luton would get him scoring at Championship level too but, given his physical presence, he would also be expected to bring the wingers into play. Zack Nelson lined up on the right with Tahith Chong, who went off at half time with what looked to be a worrying injury, on the left.
Luton’s lineup had an abundance of talent. In terms of quality alone, it wasn’t far off the side that won promotion to the Premier League in 2023. And with that in mind, it was a joy to see Argyle quickly take complete control of the game.
Within just eight minutes, the Greens were ahead. Michael Obafemi, starting on the left of the front three that evening, played a ball into the centre that eventually reached Ryan Hardie. From there, Hardie laid the ball back to Rami Al Hajj for nothing more than a half-chance. Al Hajj, making his full debut for the Greens, was unperturbed. He blasted the ball past Kaminski and into the top corner via the crossbar. It was an outstanding strike; whilst Al Hajj didn’t push on as we’d hoped from there, he’s shown at least some signs recently of returning to that level.
For a while, Argyle were rampant. Obafemi probably should have doubled the advantage, Al Hajj had a snapshot from a corner brilliantly tipped wide by Kaminsky, and Joe Edwards forced the Luton ‘keeper into another smart stop as the half time whistle neared. Still, Luton had a threat at the other end, and Adebayo had a good chance with a header that Dan Grimshaw, possibly more by luck than judgment, managed to tip over the bar.
In the second half, Adebayo missed the target with another decent headed opportunity, before Argyle introduced Ibrahim Cissoko from the bench in place of Obafemi. Within ten minutes, he’d have a huge impact. Following a storming run by Darko Gyabi, Cissoko turned Walters inside out before firing the ball into the far corner, putting Argyle two up with 20 minutes to play.
Midn you, it wouldn’t be an Argyle game without nerves. Substitute Victor Moses halved the deficit just two minutes later. There was a brief moment of controversy, with Gyabi down injured in the buildup, but I think this was just a little demonstration of inexperience by the Leeds United loanee. Either way, Argyle were not to be denied.
Adam Randell saw a long-range piledriver smash the crossbar, before Cisskoko received the ball out wide deep into stoppage time. He took two men on and, whilst his initial shot was blocked, he rolled his second into the bottom corner to secure the points for Argyle.
We can perhaps look at this game as one that “on another day” could have gone differently. If Al Hajj’s shot wasn’t quite as accurate, or if Adebayo had been a little more clinical, the result could have been very different. But that’s not to say Rooney’s side weren’t deserved winners. They were the better team, and a similar result this time around would do wonders for the mood surrounding Home Park.
Similarities
In terms of personnel, we’ve seen significant changes in Luton’s ranks since the sides last met. Unsurprisingly therefore, that has brought about several amendments in how the team operates. However, I still think some comments on their style, strengths and weaknesses from the reverse fixture still apply today.
For instance, I suspect Luton will still utilise a system with three at the back. It may not be the 3-4-3 we saw at Home Park, and it can get a little lopsided at times with a natural left back operating as a wide centre back in the defensive line. It still should be a back three though; it’s what Luton as a club have been fine-tuned into, and it’d be a surprise to see Bloomfield dispense with that style entirely.
I’d also point towards Luton’s tendency to miss chances. Although I believe the better side won the reverse fixture, Luton didn’t help themselves by spurning some presentable goalscoring opportunities. Adebayo in particular failed to deliver in front of goal and, across the entire team, nothing appears to have changed.
In total, the Hatters have missed 44 Opta-defined big chances this season. Considering they’ve had a total of 60, that gives them a big chance conversion rate of 27%. Only Hull City have converted their big chances at a worse rate. And Adebayo hasn’t covered himself in glory; of those 44 missed chances, 25 has been his. Staggeringly, that means he’s missed at least 10 more big chances than any other player in the league.
That’s been paired by leakiness at the other end, and that predictably means Luton are underperforming against their xG figures. It’s to a serious level too – this season, our expected points model has Luton sitting on a total of 39.82. Their actual points total of 27 means they’re underperforming to a total of 12.82 points. No team in the Championship sees such a large difference in the negative direction.
Of course, it would be handy if Luton underperformed again on Wednesday. I will end this section with a word of warning though: there is still an abundance of talent scattered throughout their squad. Luton were narrowly beaten 1-0 by Sheffield United last time out at Kenilworth Road, and their starting eleven that day included six players who appeared for them in the Premier League. If you were given these squad lists with no context, no idea how the season had gone to this point, you’d probably assume Luton were streets ahead of Argyle.
If they play to their potential, Luton will probably win. But hey, we said that ahead of the reverse fixture, and Argyle swept them away.
Differences
For a while now, Luton have been panicking. After going into the season as promotion hopefuls, a poor run of form saw a swift reappraisal of expectations. Right now, I think any Hatters fan would snap you hand off if offered the chance to simply stay in the Championship.
The biggest change, of course, has come in the dugout. Rob Edwards will always be a popular figure at Kenilworth Road after winning promotion to the top flight, but he couldn’t find the winning formula again after relegation. He probably had to go, but Luton took a huge risk with his replacement. Matt Bloomfield appears talented, but had no Championship experience as a coach prior to his arrival in January.
Obviously, the idea when replacing your manager in a relegation dogfight is to see an upturn in fortunes that allows you to pull yourself away from danger. It’s early days, but Bloomfield’s arrival has had the opposite effect at Luton. The sample size is small, but right now Bloomfield is performing worse than Edwards in many important metrics.
| Luton Town 2024-25 | Under Edwards | Under Bloomfield |
| Points per game | 0.96 | 0.33 |
| Expected Points per game | 1.32 | 0.93 |
| Goals per game | 1.04 | 0.5 |
| Expected Goals per game | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Goals Against per game | 1.69 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals Against per game | 1.29 | 1.46 |
I’d also mention that Bloomfield’s arrival has seen a decisive switch to long ball tactics. Given his history with Wycombe, that’s hardly surprising, but it’s a clear deviation from what Luton fans became used to under his predecessor.
Under Edwards this season, Luton went long with an average of 19% of their passes. In their last four under Bloomfield, that figure has been over 20% each time, and was as high as 29% in a recent encounter with Sheffield Wednesday. Such a tactic has also generally seen a switch to two strikers, both acting as a target for those long passes from the back.
Luton have also been incredibly active in the winter transfer window. Across January there were a total of seven arrivals, with the likes of Middlesbrough’s Isaiah Jones, Bristol City’s Kal Naismith and Exeter City’s Millenic Alli all showing up at Kenilworth Road. Meanwhile, seven senior players departed the club. That included Joe Taylor and Cauley Woodrow, both of whom emerged from the bench at Home Park, whilst Krauss, a starter on that day, had his loan terminated.
In many senses, this is a significantly different Luton side to the one Argyle faced in September. Whether those changes have been for the better is very much up for debate.
Prediction
I have two lines of thinking around this encounter. One is looking at Luton’s long ball preference and is encouraged; as we saw in the 5-1 victory against Millwall, that style could play directly into Miron Muslic’s hands. The other recognises that Argyle haven’t won away in the league all season, and they’ll have a much more difficult time emerging victorious at Kenilworth Road than they did at Home Park.
Regretfully, the second thought is winning at the moment. I’d much rather this wasn’t the case, and it wouldn’t be the end of Argyle’s survival hopes regardless, but I feel Luton are the more likely winners. I’m anticipating an ugly, gritty and deeply unsatisfactory 1-0 defeat.