In football, particularly at this level, there are few occasions that can genuinely be described as a “big day out.” Yes, that’s despite the fact opposition fans see a strong Argyle following and assume they matter to us, and we’ll hear as much from supporters of…I don’t know…Preston North End? This weekend, it’s different. On Saturday, the Green Army will have classic, bona fide big day out.
For the first time since 2007, Plymouth Argyle have progressed to the fifth round of the FA Cup. There, they’ll be faced with the small matter of a trip to Manchester City, the dominant force in English football across the last decade. It’s a fitting reward for the club’s hierarchy for making it so far after so long, for the players for famously dumping Liverpool out in the last round, and particularly for the supporters, who have had so little to shout about on their travels this season.
Once again, I’m faced with a difficult task. In the Liverpool preview, I mentioned how my modus operandi was being challenged. I like to think these previews help add insight to Argyle’s opponents, many of whom we won’t hear from on a weekly basis. But that didn’t apply to Liverpool and, shock horror, the record-breaking Premier League champions tend to get plenty of media coverage themselves. I’m going to try though; this whole weekend is an event, and you better believe I’m going to milk it for all it’s worth.
Style of play
It’s difficult to confidently predict the exact shape we’ll see from this Manchester City side. I’d imagine it’ll be akin to the fluid “inverted full back” style that Pep Guardiola first seemed to bring into the public consciousness in 2023. I’m not sure how I’d properly define it; City have officially played with both three and four at the back over the course of the season but, given how different it can look both in and out of possession, giving their style a formation label is a fool’s errand.
To complicate matters, it’ll also prove tricky to pinpoint exactly who will start for the hosts, no matter how we define their shape. If Guardiola is keen to give players a rest, a home fixture against a side in the Championship relegation zone looks an ideal opportunity.
Indeed, City faced Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on Wednesday, and a strong lineup there gave us a clue as to the Spaniard’s priorities. However, unlike Argyle, City don’t have a midweek game next week, and the FA Cup marks their final opportunity for silverware this season. Guardiola won’t want to make the same mistake as Arne Slot.
We can make some assumptions. Stefan Ortega is likely to start in goal as City’s regular “cup ‘keeper.” Admittedly, that isn’t certain either – Ortega has played in the league on occasion despite supposed first-choice goalkeeper Ederson being fit, and the Brazilian started in the FA Cup third round against Salford City. However, it seems Ederson has reclaimed his traditional number one spot, so Ortega is likely to get the nod in the cup.
Given that John Stones and Manuel Akanji are injured, and Ruben Dias and Abdulkodir Khusanov both played the full 90 minutes against Spurs, I think it’s practically certain that Nathan Ake will make an appearance in defence. He’ll probably be joined by one or both of Rico Lewis and Nico O’Reilly. Both can play in the wide defensive positions, and easily tuck into midfield when City are in possession. I imagine that’ll be a regular occurrence. Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, a contender for the greatest name in football, could also be in line for an outing.
In midfield, Guardiola used recent fixtures to bed in Nico Gonzalez, a January arrival from Porto. If he continues to do so, he may see value in giving the 23-year-old the opportunity to play against Argyle. If Gonzalez needs a rest, meanwhile, I’d expect to see Ilkay Gundogan take his place, with the German only emerging from the bench against Spurs. James McAtee is also highly likely to feature in some capacity; he’s been getting more of a look-in within the first team setup in recent weeks, and scored a hat-trick against Salford.
Guardiola has taken the FA Cup seriously this year, and his choices in the attacking positions demonstrate this perfectly. Jeremy Doku started against Salford, Omar Marmoush played in their fourth round visit to Leyton Orient, whilst Jack Grealish and Savinho featured from the start in both fixtures. If any of them play on Saturday, they’ll ask the Argyle defence a hatful of questions.
Of course, we can’t rule out some even more famous names featuring for the hosts. The likes of Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland are all available and, given what happened to Liverpool, they’ll surely at least find themselves on the bench to be introduced if required. In an ideal world, Guardiola may wish to give them all a rest, but it wouldn’t be the first time he’s fielded a genuine superstar in a domestic cup competition.
However City line up, and no matter how interchangeable their shape may be, possession is paramount. Everything we already know about them indicates that to be true, and it’s confirmed by the numbers. Across 37 games in the Premier League and Champions League this season, Guardiola’s side have averaged 771 touches per game, comfortably more than any team Argyle have faced this season.
That won’t necessarily concern the Pilgrims, particularly with Miron Muslic at the helm. But his players should expect a long and arduous game without the ball nonetheless.
Strengths
By their own lofty standards, Manchester City are having a bitterly disappointing campaign. Still, that doesn’t immediately mean they’re suddenly very beatable for a set of Championship strugglers – this team hasn’t become dreadful overnight. City still have several key strengths and, without wanting to sound too blunt, you’d expect most of them to prove far too much for Argyle to handle.
Given how crucial possession is to Guardiola’s style, it’s worth revisiting some of those numbers again. I mentioned City’s extreme numbers of touches per game in the previous section, and it’s helped them achieve an astronomical pass success rate of 91%. Again, that’s higher than any side Argyle have faced in league action this season, with Leeds United the closest challengers at 86%. Argyle’s own figure is 77%. When you only consider games under Muslic, for whom direct attacks are preferable, that drops further to 70%.
Now, that could indicate that City have only built up their figure because of their style of play, but I think that’d be unfair. Whilst they rarely go long, they are decisively accurate when they choose to do so. This season, their long pass success sits at 58%, which again dwarfs any of Argyle’s league opponents – Middlesbrough have the highest Championship figure at 46%. However they choose to pass the ball, City should be able to keep it away from their visitors with ease.
Whilst it’s not something one may instinctively link with City under Guardiola, I’ve been impressed with the way they’ve advanced the ball upfield this season. Their dribbling stats suggest another area of significant strength, and it’ll probably be their primary method for attempting to break down Argyle’s low block.
Across our 37-game sample in league and European competitions, City have completed a total of 339 dribbles. That amounts to 9.16 dribbles completed per game, which would once more rank them above anyone at Championship level (Sunderland would be their closest challengers on 8.53). City’s dribble success rate of 54% is significant too, and again this is set to be the highest figure posted by one of Argyle’s opponents all season.
Doku is a primary source of this dribbling prowess. Across the games we’re investigating, he’s completed an average of 5.69 dribbles per 90 minutes, an absurd figure for an individual player. Against Liverpool last weekend he terrorised Trent Alexander-Arnold, completing a total of 15 dribbles in the game. Off the top of my head, I cannot recall another instance of a player completing as many dribbles in a single match.
Much is made of Doku’s lack of end product, and in the main I certainly agree. A total of eight goal contributions in these 37 games simply isn’t good enough for a player of his natural ability. Pleasingly for Guardiola though, this wastefulness is not something that runs through the rest of his team. In fact, I’ve generally been impressed by the way City have been shooting. Their 37% shot accuracy is higher than any of Argyle’s league opponents this season with Cardiff City, coincidentally Argyle’s previous opponents, leading the way in the second tier on 36%.
I could go on. The talents of the likes of De Bruyne and Haaland have been tested time and time again on the world stage, and they’ve invariably passed with flying colours. However, given there are question marks on whether they’ll feature, and because I’ve waxed lyrical for long enough, I’ll stop now. Suffice to say, whoever starts for City on Saturday will provide Argyle with an immense challenge.
Weaknesses
Where on Earth do you pick holes in the team to have won an unprecedented four successive Premier League titles, and who won an historic treble less than two years ago? Well, had I been tasked with this 12 months ago, it may well have been practically impossible. That’s not the case today, and it’s undeniable that cracks have started to appear in Guardiola’s previously irresistible machine.
This season, City are fighting simply to secure a place in next year’s Champions League, which would have seemed unfathomable at the start of the campaign. There has been an argument that Guardiola’s possession-based style, so successful for so long, is going stale. That Guardiola conducts a footballing orchestra in a sport that has evolved to prefer heavy metal. There may be an element of truth to that, but in many quarters I feel it’s been slightly overblown.
First of all, I certainly wouldn’t brand Guardiola as inflexible. It’s important to remember that he arrived in England in 2016, just after Leicester City had counter-attacked their way to an astonishing Premier League title. Not only did the Spaniard pivot his own side back to a possession-based approach, he was regarded as a pioneer for the entire English game. Whether in Manchester or elsewhere, this is a manager with plenty of titles left to win in his career.
More pertinently to Argyle, I definitely see merit to the argument that City’s players aren’t carrying out Guardiola’s instructions as well as they did in previous years. Based on everything we’ve seen since Guardiola’s arrival on these shores, we know that his style can function better than practically anyone else’s in the game. But it does require each component to be on the top of their game consistently, and that hasn’t been the case in recent months.
The squad requiring a refresh has probably had a knock-on effect. Take De Bruyne and Gundogan as examples. Both have been world class superstars, and both have won all there is to win at club level, but the former is now 33 and the latter 34. They’re not quite hitting the heights they did in the past, and neither can really be trusted to perform at 100% week in, week out.
That perhaps explains why Guardiola has acted in the January transfer window, spending a total north of £200 million on four senior players with an average age of 21.8. Naturally, it’ll take time for them all to settle, and some of the newer members of the City squad have been performing below expectations.
I won’t single out individuals here, but I’ve been staggered by the number of defensive mistakes City have made over the course of the campaign. In our sample of 37 games, they’ve made a total of 23 errors leading directly to shots, and 13 leading directly to goals. A total of 36 notable errors means they’ve been making an average of 0.97 serious defensive mistakes per game. It’s a line I used extensively in the previous section, and it rings true again: no team Argyle have faced in the Championship has been making errors so frequently.
At the other end, City have occasionally had issues breaking down teams who deploy a low block. Their recent clash with Liverpool provides a fitting example. Guardiola’s men had the majority of the ball, but didn’t create a single big chance in their 2-0 defeat, with a total xG figure of just 0.65. Liverpool’s 34% possession was supposedly their lowest in a Premier League victory since records began in 2003.
The parallels to Argyle’s own fourth round triumph are obvious. City can be pressed into mistakes, and they can be shut down with tight defending further back. It’s exactly how the Pilgrims beat Liverpool despite only having 25% of the ball. I’m not going to pretend Argyle start this game as favourites, but the blueprint for beating City has been laid out, and what worked so famously before could absolutely work again.
Prediction
There is always a tiny sliver of hope. Nobody, including myself, gave Argyle a chance against Liverpool, but the Greens put the English champions-elect to the sword, winning deservedly. The Green Army will travel in good spirits for a game they’ll probably lose, but that’s by no means certain.
Perhaps foolishly, I’m going to back Argyle to score first. They’ll be more up for the clash than their opponents to begin with, and City have looked uncharacteristically shaky in recent weeks. Unlike the Liverpool game though, I don’t think it’ll be enough to win. Guardiola won’t make the same mistake as Slot, and he’ll have his big guns on the bench if required. That should see City come back into the game, and they could well add some gloss to the scoreline with some late goals.
I’m going to go for a 4-1 Manchester City victory, which would be no disgrace to Argyle with some big Championship fixtures on the horizon. Besides, I also predicted Liverpool would beat Argyle by a three-goal margin, so what do I know?