♪ Oh! I do like to be beside the seaside! ♪
Do I? Well, I’d argue that’s dependent on several factors left woefully unconsidered by the Mark Sheridan-popularised jaunty tune. When it comes to trips to Blackpool specifically though, I’d argue my record is spotless.
Granted, I haven’t been a regular at Bloomfield Road, but I have seen Plymouth Argyle play twice in these parts. First of all, there was the set piece header from Latvian part-time striker Nauris Bulvitis to secure Argyle a 1-0 win back in 2016. I was also there last season, as Tom Cleverley’s side played Blackpool off the park to secure a 4-0 triumph. It’s two wins in two visits, without conceding a goal, in games where the hosts have been reduced to ten men on both occasions.
After reading the above, I’m sure you’ll be thrilled to learn I am indeed heading up to Blackpool this weekend. I’ll obviously be travelling with a good degree of confidence. As, I believe, should the team. Argyle eased to a 3-0 win over Barnsley last weekend; it was the first game in League One this season to see a team lead from the first minute to the last. In securing their victory, the Pilgrims finished a matchday in their league’s play-off positions for the first time in three years.
The job this weekend will be to keep the good times rolling. To do so, they’ll need to overcome a side led by Ian Evatt, a familiar foe in recent years following his spells with Blackpool and Bolton Wanderers. Will Evatt’s men burst the Argyle bubble? Or will at least some of the travelling Green Army leave Blackpool with their 100% record intact?
Style of play
If you’ll allow me a moment, I’d like to take you back to this fixture last season. In the first half in particular, the game was not a contest, and the Greens thoroughly deserved to go in at the break three goals in front.
The way they did so was quite remarkable. Despite having a similar amount of the ball to their hosts, Argyle had the edge in every other relevant metric. That included, incredibly, preventing Blackpool from having a single shot of any kind for the first 45 minutes.
Ideally, we’ll see exactly the same this weekend, and Argyle being ahead at the break certainly isn’t out of the question. That said, I’d be shocked if Blackpool went an entire half of football without having a shot this time around. Evatt has enacted something of a change. Blackpool ranked 19th for their total number of shots on target last season, but they rank fifth in the early stages of this campaign.
In terms of those taking the shots, we should obviously look towards the forwards. Dion Charles is a proven talent at League One level, Jerry Yates has recently rejoined the club on loan from Luton Town, and 6 foot 5 Tom Bloxham offers a more physical option. Chief amongst them though is Josh Bowler – the winger has taken more shots than any Blackpool player so far, with his total of 20 topped by only five players across the league.
Now, based on everything we’ve seen of Evatt in the past, we’ve probably got an idea of how he may approach the game. In the past, the expectation was he’d line up with a back three and encourage his side to be patient, keeping possession and waiting for openings. Some of that may still be the case, but I’m not necessarily sure it all still applies to Evatt’s style.
Take the possession point as an example. Despite the assumption that Evatt’s teams will keep the ball as much as possible, Blackpool’s average possession in the last two seasons has come in below 50%. It’s definitionally below average, with their figure of 48.4% so far this year ranking 15th across League One.
The shape has become interchangeable, and will adapt depending on the requirements of any specific period of play.
Then there’s the formation, which I’ve found particularly difficult to pinpoint. I’ve even seen debates between Blackpool fans themselves as to whether they actually line up with a back three or back four. That suggests to me the shape has become interchangeable, and will adapt depending on the requirements of any specific period of play.
There are things we can say for certain – barring any late injuries, Bailey Peacock-Farrell will start in goal. However, elsewhere it’s probably less helpful to say who’ll be lining up in which specific position, and more relevant to discuss which players will be in general areas of the field.
At the heart of the defence, for example, Oliver Casey and Josh Earl are likely to feature in some capacity. Casey, admittedly not the quickest, appears technically proficient in various defensive aspects, and Earl is a threat in both boxes having won 67% of his aerial duels since joining from Barnsley last month.
Then there’s the midfield, where we’re likely to see Karoy Anderson and Albie Morgan, both formerly of Charlton Athletic. Liverpool academy graduate Leighton Clarkson is often used from the bench. Anderson strikes me as the more combative of the lot, whilst Morgan can claim to be the most technically proficient. He scored his first goal of the season from a free kick in last week’s 2-2 draw against Bromley, albeit with the assistance of some suspect goalkeeping.
Overall, the lineup itself may not be particularly difficult for Argyle to predict. No team in the division has used fewer players at this early stage than Blackpool’s 20. But the methods for combating different shapes, and the interchangeability between them, will have needed specific work on the Argyle training ground.
Strengths
Looking at both ends of the field, I think it should be clearly acknowledged that Blackpool’s strengths lie in the attacking areas. We’ll look at where the defensive deficiencies lie later, but for now we can marvel at an attacking group who rank in the league’s top six for xG (with 10.63) this season. Yes, the sample size is small, but I see encouraging signs that Blackpool can maintain that attacking proficiency.
Statistically at least, there seems to be a lot of intelligence in the way Evatt’s men probe for openings. They’re not the sort to lump the ball into the box regularly, having ranked 21st for crosses completed last season and being in a similar ballpark early this year. However, their cross success rate of 28% this term ranks fourth in League One, demonstrating good decision-making when opting to get the ball into the middle. Their crossing is all about quality, not quantity.
Breaking up moves in the middle will be vital for Argyle this weekend, and as such Tyreeq Bakinson could prove to be the key man.
The relative lack of crossing also points to the added importance of attacking through the middle. I can certainly see why it would be effective. Anderson and Morgan do seem to complement each other nicely, while the addition of a third option (perhaps Clarkson or Jordan Brown) means the midfield, on its day at least, can be a match for many at this level. Breaking up moves in the middle will be vital for Argyle this weekend, and as such Tyreeq Bakinson could prove to be the key man.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Blackpool’s attacking is that they’re not over-reliant on one player for goals. Again, I’ll stress the season is very young, but it’s surely a good sign that as many as nine players have scored at least once for Blackpool in the league – no other League One club can say the same. Naturally, having threats in many different areas makes a team more difficult to defend against, and Argyle will need to be on their guard.
If I am to pick a particularly dangerous individual in this attack, Bowler would be the man. He’s already scored twice this season, and as I mentioned before he’s taken more shots than any other Blackpool player. He also leads his team’s ranks for xG, fouls won, key passes and pass success.
Bowler has both attempted (36) and completed (16) more dribbles than any player in League One this season.
Where he excels most, however, is running with the ball. Bowler has both attempted (36) and completed (16) more dribbles than any player in League One this season. It certainly feels as though you’d want a genuine full back like Matty Sorinola (or Jack MacKenzie or Joe Edwards, fitness permitting) on Bowler’s side, rather than allowing him to run at a slightly mispositioned Wes Harding.
One final thing to note: Blackpool have been duelling well so far this season. They’ve won 51% of both their ground and aerial duels this season, which both predictably rank within the league’s top half. It also acts as an obvious differential to Argyle. Owing mainly to difficulties in the air, Cleverley’s side have won 47% of their duels this season; only Barnsley have won them at a worse rate.
As discussed earlier, Argyle will need a game plan to combat Blackpool’s interchangeable shape. They’ll also need to enter their battles more effectively than in recent weeks to come away with a positive result.
Weaknesses
Blackpool are at least showing encouraging signs going forward, and so far they’ve been decent in their duels in transition. Defensively though, it’s a different story. I’d go as far as saying that story is a very worrying one for Evatt and his team’s ambitions.
On the face of it, the nine goals Blackpool have conceded isn’t a dreadful defensive record. Not the best over six games, sure, but passable. However, it’s in their underlying data where things really begin to unravel. Blackpool xG against of 13.62 is, by a considerable margin, the highest figure in the league.
We should account for mitigating factors when considering such obvious and outlying xG figures. Is game state playing a role in Blackpool conceding so much? Not really. Yes, they shipped 3.54 whilst leading from the 22nd minute in an eventual win away to Stockport County, but they’ve been leading for a total of 158 minutes this season. They’ve been behind for 155, creating a difference of just three minutes. It’s hard to build a compelling case that game state has materially impacted Blackpool’s defensive numbers.
How about penalties? After all, they are always worth 0.79 xG, and for some offences the punishment can hardly be said to fit the crime. But no, there’s no mitigation here either. Like most teams in the league, Blackpool are yet to concede a penalty this season. The 13.62 xG against figure, therefore, is an entirely justifiable reflection of the chances created against Evatt’s side. If anything, hunting for mitigation has made things look worse, not better.
Ultimately, I’d have to conclude that Blackpool have been fortunate not to concede more. A lot of praise, perhaps surprisingly, should go to the much-maligned Peacock-Farrell, with post-shot xG data suggesting he’s prevented more goals (3.41) than any other League One ‘keeper this season. However, recent games suggest a regression to the mean is starting to occur and, to paraphrase an old saying, “form is temporary, dodginess is permanent”.
Set pieces appear to be a specific area of defensive weakness. Blackpool have conceded five goals from set piece situations this season; no team in the division has conceded more. That’s not by chance, with their xG against from set pieces (3.92) once again the highest figure in League One.
After scoring three goals from set pieces in this fixture last season, Argyle should fancy themselves to develop similar opportunities.
That figure in particular should give Argyle huge encouragement. We know the Greens have placed greater importance on set pieces in 2026, and this weekend they face a side weak in such situations who have, incidentally, also conceded more corners than any other team in the league. After scoring three goals from set pieces in this fixture last season, Argyle should fancy themselves to develop similar opportunities.
Other metrics demonstrate further defensive problems. For example, only two teams have been dribbled past more regularly than Blackpool, suggesting this is another game where Oliver Irow could make an impact right from the off. Additionally, while Evatt doesn’t place as much emphasis on possession these days, he does still like his teams to play out from the back. That can lead to difficulties; no team in the league has made more errors leading directly to shots this season than Blackpool’s six.
There are weaknesses in other areas of the field, and despite my praise Blackpool’s attack isn’t perfect. However, the clearest deficiencies come at the back. If Argyle don’t score at least once against this defence, they’ll have let themselves down.
Prediction
Nothing is ever certain, but I can say with a reasonable degree of confidence that both teams should score this weekend. Blackpool generally attack well, and Argyle are yet to keep an away clean sheet this season. However, the Greens are beginning to show encouraging potency in attack, and should be licking their lips at the opportunity to face this defence, which ranks among the league’s worst across numerous metrics.
With the above in mind, I’ve considered opting for a score draw. However, I think there’s a reasonable argument that the combination of momentum and recent history favours the visitors. That, twinned with my own Bloomfield Road record, means I’ll be optimistic, and back Argyle to edge it with a late set piece winner.
Blackpool 1-2 Plymouth Argyle
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