It’s back to home comforts for Plymouth Argyle this weekend. An opportunity to get back to winning ways in front of their own supporters after a difficult week on the road.
Argyle only picked up one point from trips to Blackburn Rovers and Luton Town. It’s not perfect, but of course things could have been a lot worse. Argyle showed good character to earn a draw at Luton, after going behind and having a goal wrongly ruled out for offside, and the point does ensure that they remain above the Hatters in the table. Still, given the nature of the relegation battle, I can’t help but feel a win would have been transformative.
As I often find myself saying after a draw, how we view the point may well be dependant on how Argyle build upon it going forward. They have the chance to do so straight away with the visit of Cardiff City on Saturday. The Bluebirds sit three points clear of the relegation zone, and are another side in real danger of dropping into League One. It’s the sort of game, to put it mildly, Argyle will be targeting for three points.
This is another massive encounter in the space of three days. An Argyle win would see them go level on points with their visitors, whilst a victory for the Bluebirds could see them start to pull away from the dogfight, putting the Greens in huge trouble in the process.
The reverse fixture
Preview: Cardiff vs Plymouth Argyle
19th October 2024: Cardiff City 5 (Robertson 16’, Colwill 24’, El Ghazi 52’, Robinson 75’, Willock 80’) Plymouth Argyle 0
With the benefit of hindsight, I’d argue we can pinpoint this day as the beginning of the end for the Wayne Rooney experiment. Argyle actually went into the game on a high, having scored a 97th minute winner against Blackburn on the other side of the international break. Rooney was serving a touchline ban after being sent off in that clash, and his side rocked up to South Wales to take on a team sitting bottom of the league at the time. The Greens were roundly trounced.
Under Omer Riza, caretaker manager at that stage (he’d be awarded the role permanently a few weeks later), Cardiff have always preferred a 4-2-3-1. As such, it was no surprise to see the formation deployed against Argyle.
Jak Alnwick had earned the edge on Ethan Horvath to start in goal, with a defensive partnership of Dimitrios Goutas and Calum Chambers ahead of him. Perry Ng was a familiar figure on the right of the defensive line, but Callum O’Dowda’s inclusion on the left was intriguing, given he’s probably more familiar as a winger. I suggested before the game that Morgan Whittaker could have some joy up against O’Dowda, a prediction that proved woefully inaccurate.
Cardiff’s midfield double pivot included a solid duo of David Turnbull alongside Alex Robertson, the latter arriving from Manchester City over the summer. That put the onus on talented 22-year-old Rubin Colwill to create chances from the number 10 position. Should he succeed, he’d be in position to set up opportunities for a fluid-looking front three, consisting of Anwar El Ghazi, Ollie Tanner and Callum Robinson.
Argyle went into the game having just beaten a Blackburn team using a similar shape, and actually started the game well. Rami Al Hajj linked up well with Whittaker, who set Michael Obafemi free in the area. Alas, the Burnley loanee looked hesitant with his finish, and ended up placing the ball harmlessly wide. We’ll never know, but the game may well have turned out very differently had he found the corner.
It’d prove irrelevant. Moments later, Colwill would find Robertson on the edge of the box, and he’d curl a delightful shot into the net past Dan Grimshaw’s despairing dive. Grimshaw didn’t even move for Cardiff’s second; he was totally unsighted as Colwill himself placed the ball into the bottom corner. With numerous chances to clear the ball, it was an awful goal for Argyle to concede, and totally in keeping with the general tone of the day.
On 41 minutes, bad fully made its acquaintance with worse. After being wound up by Ng, Ibrahim Cissoko lashed out and earned himself an early bath. Ng knew exactly what he was doing, but it was a brainless decision by Cissoko to react, and he fully deserved to receive his marching orders.
Half time arrived, and Rooney brought Jordan Houghton on to replace Al Hajj. An indication, perhaps, that ten-man Argyle were looking to limit the damage in the second 45 minutes. If that was the plan, it failed miserably. Within seven minutes of the restart, Colwill won the ball ahead of Darko Gyabi and set up El Ghazi for a tap in.
That set up a remarkable few moments. Grimshaw pulled off some clever saves, whilst Bali Mumba hit his own crossbar, but Cardiff were not to be denied a fourth. Chris Willock found Robinson in space and, after beating Kornel Szucs, the Irishman found the net. Willock himself fired home from a corner with ten minutes to play, notching his first goal for the Bluebirds in the process. 5-0 is how it would remain.
For most teams, this performance would be comfortably the worst of the season. It speaks volumes that there are debates at Argyle as to whether it even makes the top three. That day, the Pilgrims were gutless, hapless, and a disgrace to the 2,000+ supporters who travelled to South Wales. It was nothing short of a shameful display.
Argyle lost their mojo that day, and never really regained it until Rooney’s departure.
Similarities
These sections have proved harder to fill out than in more recent games. Cardiff came into the reverse fixture rock bottom of the league, and the preview that day was predictably scathing of their season. However, Cardiff then went on to comprehensively outplay Argyle. I’ll do my best each time to clarify exactly which comparisons I’m making throughout.
The first thing to note is that the shape is set to be very similar. Riza is still in place, and he’s not a caretaker anymore. The 4-2-3-1 that he deployed in the reverse fixture is still his preference and, given how it allowed Colwill to get the better of Adam Randell, I’d be very surprised if it wasn’t used again. Cardiff recently went to Portsmouth, a team you could reasonably class as a relegation rival, and lined up with three at the back, but I think that’ll prove to be the exception to Riza’s rule.
With the shape similar, I suspect the style itself will follow suit. At the Cardiff City Stadium, the hosts were constantly asking questions of the Pilgrims with balls in behind. Rather than through balls, these tended to be passes over the top of the Argyle defence and into space. It was enough to put Rooney’s side under constant pressure.
In that game, Cardiff were caught offside five times, compared to no offside offences for Argyle. That was testament to how the Bluebirds’ style relied on attackers playing on the shoulder of the last defender, and it’s continued all year. Across the season, Cardiff have been caught offside on 76 occasions, with Leeds United (77) the only team to fall foul of the linesman’s flag more regularly. Argyle’s defence hasn’t been quite as high since Miron Muslic’s arrival, so this threat could be negated, but it remains a threat nonetheless.
I’d also point towards the goal contributions stemming from the Cardiff bench, and note that the starting eleven at Home Park may not necessarily be the ones deciding the outcome of the game. Remember earlier, when I mentioned that Willock notched a goal and an assist in the reverse fixture? He did so as a substitute, replacing Colwill with 66 minutes on the clock.
Goal contributions from substitutes have been another trend that has continues throughout Cardiff’s season. Across the campaign, a total of 8 goals have been scored by subs, with a further 6 assists provided by those emerging from the bench. The total of 14 goal contributions from substitutes is topped by only three teams in the league, all of whom have scored a higher number of total goals than the Bluebirds. Proportionally, Cardiff are hugely reliant on their bench to break teams down.
Muslic will need a better plan than Rooney to deal with Cardiff’s starting 11. He’ll also need to be tactically astute, and think on his feet to deal with any changes Riza makes during the 90 minutes.
Differences
We’ll start with personnel. Several of those to appear for Cardiff in the reverse fixture are available for the encounter at Home Park, and we’ll no doubt see a good number from the start. However, there are a few new weapons in Riza’s arsenal deserving of attention.
Many of those come in midfield. Academy graduate Cian Ashford has had somewhat of a breakthrough season in South Wales, and has featured in Cardiff’s last 12 Championship fixtures. Another academy graduate, though a much older one, is Aaron Ramsey. The 34-year-old had been injured since the end of August, but made his return from the bench last time out against Bristol City. In that game, the midfield double pivot also featured two players who didn’t start the reverse fixture: Andy Rinomhota and Ajax loanee Sivert Mannsverk.
Perhaps the most intriguing change comes in defence. He wasn’t involved in October, but over the summer Cardiff spent a significant fee to sign Norwegian centre back Jesper Daland. That signing, in a curious twist of fate, came from Cercle Brugge. Let’s hope Daland doesn’t take too much joy from his reunion with Muslic.
In terms of statistical differences, I wonder whether the reverse fixture may have ignited something in Cardiff going forward. Going into that encounter, they were some of the worst shooters in the league. After scoring five, their numbers now rank amongst the best. Cardiff’s shot accuracy of 36% is currently the highest figure in the division, whilst they’re overperforming against their total xG figure by 2.25 goals (they were underperforming heading into the reverse fixture).
That’s mainly through strong shooting as opposed to luck – Cardiff’s post shot xG currently sits 5.43 above their standard xG, with only three sides shooting better across the league. Interestingly, Cardiff’s shot conversion of 8% is one of the lowest figures in the Championship, suggesting they’ve been up against some strong goalkeepers. Conor Hazard may need to have a strong game.
There have also been strengths emerging since October’s encounter. Whilst it wasn’t apparent at the time of the last preview, Cardiff’s dribble success of 50% now ranks as the league’s best. Meanwhile, their tackle success now sits at 74%, the second-highest figure in the Championship behind only Millwall (77%). Both dribbles and tackles contribute to ground duels, and overall Cardiff’s ground duel success now sits at 52%. That’s the fourth-highest figure in the league, and suggests Riza has added some much-needed fighting instincts to his team.
Argyle, led by the likes of Nikola Katic and Maksym Talovierov, will need to be up for that fight.
Prediction
Argyle’s clash with Luton was big, but this one feels even bigger. Statistically, the Pilgrims earn the vast majority of their points at home, and this is the sort of fixture they must be winning to have a reasonable hope of maintaining their Championship status.
I wasn’t confident heading into the Luton game, so I’m going to allow myself to indulge on this occasion. I suspect this one will be close, and I know neither side will want to give the other an inch. But overall, I foresee Argyle having the edge, and the backing of a raucous Green Army can be the catalyst for a vital victory. 2-1 Argyle.