At long last, the 2026/7 season is upon us. I understand and appreciate that those of a certain age will have taken great joy in reading that season name aloud. That age, incidentally, falls into the “primary school” range.
In their infinite wisdom, the EFL have opted to do things slightly differently this year. Rather than kicking off with the classic opening day league fixture, it’ll be the Carabao Cup getting us underway, with all round one games spread across the opening weekend. In these circumstances, do you think the club’s leadership would have preferred a quiet tie to build up to the league season, or a barnstorming derby clash? My suspicion is the former, but the latter has its own advantages.
Yes, Exeter City come to town for a Monday meeting under the Home Park lights (for all the effect they’ll have in early August). The Grecians’ last competitive game saw them relegated from League One, and there was a hope that Plymouth Argyle wouldn’t be playing them again for some time. That they visit for the first game of the season brings reactions akin to David Brent on blind dates, or to the proverbial floater that refuses to flush.
Still, it does provide an opportunity. Win this, and the new campaign will be off to a flying start in a way no other could match. Lose? Well, let’s not imagine the reaction if we lose.
Style of play
With only pre-season to use as evidence, it’s obviously a tricky time to make firm conclusions about a team’s style of play. That being said, Exeter’s well-publicised squad woes are helpful. Given the limited number of professionals on the books at St James Park, there are only so many ways manager Matt Taylor can line up his side, and they should be at least somewhat predictable as a result.
Given the limited number of professionals on the books at St James Park, there are only so many ways manager Matt Taylor can line up his side.
I think that’ll mean a change to the shape we saw when these sides last met in April. That day, Taylor opted for a 4-2-3-1, which he also used across the final seven games of the league season. This time around, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t line up with a 3-4-1-2.
That’ll see a back three consisting of Luca Woodhouse, Jack Fitzwater and Ed James, the latter of whom graduated from the Exeter academy and has recently returned from a loan spell at Torquay United. Ed Turns would ordinarily provide a further centre back option, but he’s currently a long-term injury absentee. Behind them, Jack Bycroft, who acted as Joe Whitworth’s backup last season but got his chance after an injury, is now Exeter’s first-choice goalkeeper.
A potential weakness? Exeter don’t seem to have many (if any) natural wing backs on the books. Indications from pre-season suggest they’re set to use Andrew Oluwabori on the left and Gwion Edwards on the right. They’re capable players. Edwards, despite joining from relegated National League side Morecambe, is said to have impressed throughout pre-season. However, I’d argue both are more comfortable as genuine wingers, and that makes them two seriously attacking options for a team who may need to do plenty of defending.
With that in mind, it’s perhaps not a surprise that Exeter have had left-sided defender Ali Koiki on trial at the club. Having experienced injury issues, Koiki hasn’t played professional football for over a year since his departure from Northampton Town in May 2025, but he does offer a potential solution in an area where Exeter are short of bodies. Should he sign between the time you read this and kick-off, he may slot straight in, and could even be used to completely change the shape if Taylor deems it necessary.
Comparatively, Exeter have an embarrassment of riches in central midfield…with four professionals vying for two spots in the side. Charlie Cummins and Taylor Perry, the latter arriving from Shrewsbury Town over the summer, seem the most likely to get the nod, but they face competition from former Irish youth international Jake Doyle-Hayes and Harry Kite, who rejoined the club on Thursday. Academy graduate Pedro Elawar offers another option if required.
In the attacking roles, it’s likely we’ll see three who were all on Exeter’s books last season take up the mantle again. Reece Cole is likely to play in the number 10 role, with Jayden Wareham and Sonny Cox forming a strike partnership up ahead. Josh Gordon is another option up front, having joined from Walsall over the summer, but I’d be surprised to see him start.
Despite the change in league, there are certain things we can infer about Exeter’s style. This is a big cup tie for them, away to local and superior opposition, so they’ll look to keep things tight and ensure openings for their hosts are limited. Taylor will want to ensure his side don’t play the game on Argyle’s terms; it’s something they did particularly well during April’s visit to Home Park.
The method is obvious: get the ball forward quickly, get it out wide, cross it.
Going forward, the style is also fairly simple. Exeter completed 1,305 long passes in the league last season, with only Stockport County completing more across League One. The Grecians also ranked relatively highly for their number of completed crosses. The method is obvious: get the ball forward quickly, get it out wide, cross it. And, with two strikers now on the pitch, those crosses in particular will have more targets if the wing backs can provide sufficient quality.
Exeter’s plan in a nutshell will come down to getting the basics right. Do that, and they’ll give themselves a chance.
Strengths
This is a team who were relegated from League One last season, and a club who are experiencing turmoil off the field. As such, collective strengths are difficult to identify, and even then it’s arguable how much they’ll carry over between seasons. Nonetheless, we are able to identify some key individuals in Exeter’s ranks, and there are some who clearly have the ability to hurt Argyle.
Wareham became a rare diamond in the dumpster fire of the Grecians’ season.
The most obvious place to start is Wareham. After joining from Reading over the summer, he became a rare diamond in the dumpster fire of the Grecians’ season. There have been rumours surrounding his future ever since the season ended, but for now he remains at St James Park and is surely in line to start Monday’s fixture.
Wareham’s goalscoring record speaks for itself; 19 goals in a team who were relegated is seriously impressive. His total of 16.34 xG is also strong. It’s low enough to demonstrate an overperformance in finishing, but high enough to suggest his goalscoring is sustainable over a lengthened period of time. Wareham was also well out in front in Exeter’s ranks for his total of 102 shots taken last season – second place on that list had 45.
That figure, incidentally, belongs to Cole, another man to watch. There is an impression that Cole is the creator whilst Wareham is the finisher in Exeter’s system. Whilst there is an element of truth to that, given Cole ranked second for league assists at Exeter last season, his total was only four, way behind Ilmari Niskanen on 14. Cole’s role seems to be to sit behind Wareham/the strikers and offer support both in the build-up and at the end of moves, rather than excelling in one particular area.
In the league last season, 51% of Exeter’s goals were scored by either Wareham or Cole. They’re clearly a dangerous duo, and Argyle should already be well aware. Both scored when these sides last met in April.
At the other end, goalkeeper Bycroft emerged as a surprise strength in the latter part of last season. As I mentioned, he spent much of his time as backup to Whitworth, but got his chance for the final seven games of the campaign. He grabbed that chance with both hands.
Many will recall his superb display of shot stopping in April’s Devon Derby. That wasn’t an isolated occurrence. Take the game just before that: a 3-0 win over Doncaster Rovers (that was, incidentally, the only victory Exeter managed in their final 20 games of the season). The Grecians were actually beaten on xG that day, but a superb performance from Bycroft helped them not only win, but keep a clean sheet in the process.
Bycroft conceded 9 goals but prevented a further 5.34 based on post-shot xG during last season’s seven-game spell. I don’t expect that to hold over a sustained time period – if it did, he’d be one of the best shot stoppers in the world – but it does demonstrate that he can appear unbeatable on his day. Argyle may need to hope his performance levels aren’t quite as high as when these sides last met.
Weaknesses
Over a 46-game season, teams don’t tend to get relegated by accident. It’s therefore not a controversial statement to say Exeter’s team last season was poor. They’re much worse now.
Financial troubles at St James Park have been well documented, and it’s led to significant difficulties in retaining players. As well as Niskanen, who played more league minutes for Exeter than anyone else last season, the Grecians have lost the services of Whitworth, Ethan Brierley, Jack McMillan and Pierce Sweeney, all of whom played over 3,000 league minutes last term.
Overall, players who have now departed the club made up 62% of Exeter’s league minutes last season. That is a significant chunk to aim to replace all at once. Comparatively, the figure at Argyle sits at a much more manageable 36%, and a major proportion of that can be put down to the necessity of replacing both goalkeepers. That’s already happened.
Indeed, recruitment is another key differential between the clubs at present. Whilst Argyle have either retained, replaced or are well on their way to replacing their squad members from last term, Exeter simply cannot afford to make the quality or quantity of signings required to stabilise the strength of their team.
We’ve already touched upon many of their new signings, but it’s worth going into a little more depth. Edwards and Kite were both relegated from the fifth tier last season, with the latter even spending time in the sixth tier with Weston-super-Mare. Gordon was released by Walsall, and finished bottom of League Two last season on loan at Barrow. Perry, in fairness, is a perfectly decent player for League Two level but, to have any chance of going straight back up, Exeter clearly need a great deal more.
That isn’t likely to be forthcoming. The biggest current rumour surrounds a player who hasn’t played professionally for 15 months, and Taylor has been clear that the club cannot afford any more arrivals without prior sales. They could probably do with selling, then, and Wareham feels the obvious candidate. It might help if they had a bigger club on their doorstep who are known to be looking for attacking reinforcements, but perhaps they’re just unlucky.
It remains to be seen whether Argyle’s business this summer will leave them in a stronger position, but Exeter are undeniably weaker.
Either way, this should all give Argyle huge encouragement. I think we’d all accept that the Pilgrims weren’t at their best when these two last met, but they were still the better side that day and ought to have won. It remains to be seen whether Argyle’s business this summer will leave them in a stronger position, but Exeter are undeniably weaker than they were in April.
I also think some weaknesses may well carry over from last season into this. Many of Exeter’s struggles last year came going forward, with only two League One teams having fewer Opta-defined big chances than Exeter’s 75. But there were problems at the other end too, with the Grecians’ total of 22 goals conceded from set pieces the third-worst figure in the league.
Given Argyle now have Harvey White and Ronan Curtis over their set pieces, and they scored twice from dead-ball situations in April’s fixture, they’ll surely fancy their chances of doing so again.
Prediction
It’s often said that the form book goes out of the window on derby day. This, then, must be a particularly special occasion: a derby game with no form book.
There are a few ways we can assess this. Yes, the nature of the fixture could level the playing field slightly, and that would be in Exeter’s best interests. However, one of these sides clearly has more quality in their ranks. And let’s not forget the last time Exeter went away from home in a cup game against bigger opposition. They were spanked 10-1.
I’m not anticipating the same scoreline here, but I do expect Argyle to come away with the victory.
Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Exeter City
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