It’s last chance saloon for Argyle’s survival hopes. Adam Price previews the match against Sheffield Wednesday.
Yeah, it’s realistically over, isn’t it? Survival may be far from a mathematical uncertainty, but logically it’s hard to see how Plymouth Argyle make up their six-point deficit from safety with 11 Championship games remaining. That’s particularly true when you consider that the Greens haven’t won a league game away from Home Park all season. It’s mid-March.
In midweek, Argyle predictably lost on their travels again. Their performance against Hull City was tepid, lifeless, and they fully deserved the 2-0 scoreline against them. If anything, Miron Muslic’s side were fortunate not to have been defeated by an even greater margin. The Greens didn’t have a shot until the 80th minute, when they were already soundly beaten, and there’s a strong argument that this was their worst display of the entire season.
A competitor for that dubious title would be Argyle’s league opener against Sheffield Wednesday, who they’ll host this weekend. If you can bear it, I’ll go into more detail on that game shortly, but few will need reminding of how decisively Argyle were pummelled at Hillsborough. Having been promoted alongside the Owls, Argyle looked to have the edge on them in the first half of last season. However, Danny Rohl has been a revelation since arriving in South Yorkshire, and the teams now appear to be heading in opposite directions.
The time for “trying not to lose” is over. Argyle need wins, and they need them quickly. Can they secure one against Rohl’s side this weekend?
The reverse fixture
Preview: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth Argyle
11th August 2024: Sheffield Wednesday 4 (J. Lowe 35’, Galloway og 52’, Windass 82’, Smith 90+6’) Plymouth Argyle 0
Over the summer, Argyle had made…an unconventional choice by hiring Wayne Rooney as their new head coach. The move raised more than a few eyebrows, but the Manchester United legend had the chance to silence his doubters on opening day in front of the Sky cameras. What followed was…well, given I don’t think I’ve ever sworn in one of these pieces, I won’t say what I really think. Let’s just say it was disappointing.
Rohl lined up with a 4-2-3-1, and the shape was pretty fluid depending on the situation. Goalkeeper James Beadle, alongside centre backs Di’Shon Bernard and Dominic Iorfa, were all fairly settled in their positions. However, right back Yan Valery could invert to become a wide centre back, allowing Max Lowe, a summer arrival from arch-rivals Sheffield United, to bomb forward on the left. On paper at least, the shape matched Argyle’s, who had a 4-2-3-1 with Victor Palsson intended to be used as an inverting full back. If you can believe that.
Wednesday’s midfield included the evergreen Barry Bannan alongside new arrival Svante Ingelsson, with Josh Windass lining up as a de facto number 10. The plan was for much of the attacking excitement to come from explosive wingers Djeidi Gassama and Anthony Musaba; both would be looking to set up chances for themselves, as well as another new signing up front in Jamal Lowe.
From the off, Wednesday were the dominant force. They had the first five shots of the game, and remained on top despite Adam “Foreshaw” having Argyle’s only shot on target of the game after 26 minutes. It wouldn’t be long before Rohl’s side took the lead – 35 minutes were on the clock when Bannan threaded the ball through to midfield partner Ingelsson, and he crossed to allow Jamal Lowe an easy tap-in. The lead was richly deserved, and Argyle were fortunate to only be one behind at the interval.
The good fortune wouldn’t last. Early in the second half, Jamal Lowe was once more involved as he emphatically bullied Nathanael Ogbeta to win a back post header. He didn’t hit the target, but the ball did find the back of the net off the bonce of Brendan Galloway. The manner of the goal was unlucky, but the scoreline certainly wasn’t, and things weren’t about to get any better.
Conor Hazard made a few smart saves, and Argyle subbed off Ibrahim “Issoko” for Freddie Issaka, but nothing could turn the tide. With eight minutes remaining, Windass swept home from a throw-in routine to extend Wednesday’s lead. And deep into stoppage time, Hazard made another clever stop from substitute Michael Smith, but the ball fell back to Smith to add Wednesday’s fourth. 4-0 would be the final score, and it was a scoreline that flattered Argyle.
I recognise this is a bad trait for an article writer, but I’m struggling to put the disgraceful level of Argyle’s performance into words. They lost 4-0, but this was a kind result given how they played, with Wednesday wasteful and actually underperforming against their xG. They lost 4-0, but their goalkeeper was by far their best player. They lost 4-0, and the decision to play fast and loose with their head coach position was already coming back to bite them.
As a man who likes to deal in statistics, let me present this one. I have calculated expected points, based on xG data, for all games in Argyle’s league for the past three seasons. This was the first time I have ever seen any team’s total round to 0.00 expected points. Absolute zero. Literally and statistically, Argyle got exactly what they deserved: an absolute battering.
Similarities
Against Hull, Argyle were facing a much-chanced side from the team they faced at the start of the season. Perhaps worryingly, given the outcome of the reverse fixture, the opposite has been the case at Hillsborough. Rohl remains in the dugout, and many of the weapons he used to harm Argyle back in August are still available to him today.
As it often is with Wednesday, Bannan is the obvious place to start. He’s been a creative marvel in South Yorkshire for many years now, and whilst he didn’t get on the scoresheet in the reverse fixture, he was instrumental in creating the opener, and he dominated Argyle’s midfield duo on the day. He made more key passes than anybody else on the field, and will be the go-to man for creativity once more.
Now 35, Bannan remains as statistically crucial to Wednesday as he’s ever been. He tops the charts within their ranks for touches, passes attempted and completed, and key passes across the campaign. The quality of those passes is significant too; when it comes to those key passes, Bannan’s total of 57 ranks within the top ten across the Championship. Given Argyle currently play with a midfield two, albeit in a slightly different way to the reverse fixture, that must be a cause for concern given how dominant Bannan was that day.
Aside from Bannan, the wingers still have a key role to play in advancing Wednesday upfield. In the preview ahead of the reverse fixture I mentioned that, whilst Rohl does like to play with attacking full backs, much of the width is still provided by the wingers themselves. That has been the case throughout the campaign, and will remain so for Saturday’s meeting at Home Park.
Gassama is probably the vital man to mention in that regard. Again, he’s another who didn’t score in the reverse fixture, but he left his mark with some incisive running. In fact, only four players in the league have attempted or completed more dribbles this season than the 21-year-old, and whoever plays on Argyle’s right will have a job on their hands. Provided he’s fit, it may not be the worst time to reintroduce Joe Edwards’ in-game intelligence to the side.
And once they get it forward, Wednesday still have Windass in position to take the chances they create. He had four shots in the reverse fixture, including his goal to make it 3-0, with Argyle themselves only mustering five collectively. Windass has continued to be a constant threat. Only three players in the Championship have taken more shots than his 78, and he’s hit double figures for league goals across the campaign. That total includes an unbelievable strike from his own half against Derby County.
Overall, Wednesday’s attack remains just as potent as it was when the sides last met. The Owls may (just about) sit in the bottom half of the Championship at the moment, but only five teams in the league have taken more shots. Given how well they exploited Argyle last time, and given the fact the Greens have only kept two league clean sheets all season, it’d come as quite the shock if Wednesday didn’t add to their goalscoring tally this weekend.
Differences
With the head coach still in place and a similar style being deployed, most of the differences we’ll see in Rohl’s side this weekend are personnel based.
Several players who featured in the reverse fixture are at the very least doubtful for this encounter. Two men I definitely expect to miss out are defenders Max Lowe and Bernard, with muscle and knee injuries respectively. Granted, Argyle didn’t exactly test Wednesday defensively last time around, so it’s difficult to quantify how much of a difference this will make, but a reshuffle in Wednesday’s ranks will be necessary.
At the centre of the defence, Michael Ihiekwe is almost certain to keep his place, having started the Owls’ last nine league fixtures. Alongside him, I’m less certain. Liam Palmer is an option, but Rohl may see this as a good opportunity to give Iorfa his first league minutes since the start of January. On the left, new signing Ryo Hatsuse looks to be a like-for-like replacement for the absent Max Lowe.
I expect to see some new blood in midfield too. Ingelsson started alongside Bannan last time, and it’s possible that he’ll appear again. However, if a midfield two is deployed, I suspect it’s far more likely that we’ll see Southampton loanee Shea Charles. Ahead of the January window, Wednesday’s maniacal chairman Dejphon Chansiri announced that Southampton had decided to recall Charles, who subsequently…wasn’t recalled. Rohl may be working miracles on the pitch, but it’s good to see that some things at Wednesday never change.
There will also be an enforced change in the forward line. I mentioned earlier how Wednesday’s wingers terrorised Argyle in the reverse fixture, and picked out Gassama as a key threat with his dribbling ability. I stand by that, but would note that Musaba actually attempted more dribbles than any player on the pitch back in August. However, he too has been missing lately through injury, and I don’t expect him to recover in time to feature.
He’s a loss, but Wednesday have plenty of options to replace the 24-year-old. Callum Paterson has been the preferred choice in recent times, but there is also the option of having Gassama swap flanks (perhaps a smart option, given Argyle’s defensive struggles on the left) with Windass filling in on the other side. Rohl could also utilise a certain Ibrahim Cissoko. He arrived at Hillsborough in the winter window and has yet to make a league start, but for obvious reasons he could be particularly keen to feature at Home Park.
I’m not sure whether I should be listing this as a point of difference, given how little defending Wednesday had to do in the reverse fixture, but I do have an avenue of hope for Argyle supporters. It may not come as a surprise, given the enforced changes Rohl has had to make in his defensive line, but across the campaign it has been known to be messy on occasion.
For example, Wednesday have conceded a total of five penalties this season, more than any other Championship side. Argyle themselves have made the most of penalties in recent weeks, with Ryan Hardie famously scoring the winner against Liverpool from the spot. Hardie may be unavailable here, but this could be the way to break Wednesday down in the absence of another attacking threat.
Prediction
Argyle know exactly what is on the line. Their visitors this weekend are technically in the play-off race, alongside about umpteen other clubs, but I expect those dreams to be dashed fairly soon. The Greens, meanwhile, know for sure what they’re battling for this season.
Given the clarity of mind, and the fact Argyle have home advantage, the balance may tip in their favour. However, I can’t hide from the fact that Wednesday simply appear to be the better team at the moment. Maybe not by much, and not necessarily man-for-man, but Rohl has clearly got his team playing to a level few others could manage.
Fence-sitting I may be, but I suspect those factors will cancel each other out. Wednesday to take the lead, Argyle to equalise from the spot, 1-1 at the full-time whistle.