Plymouth Argyle lost in midweek. It means they’ve now conceded eight goals across their last three games, and are now out of the Carabao Cup to go alongside their winless start to the league season. And yet, the mood music surrounding the club is so much nicer than it had been over the previous week.
Argyle may have lost, but they gave Premier League Coventry City a strong game on Tuesday night. The Greens recovered from a nightmare start to draw level with their top flight opponents before the Sky Blues eventually got over the line. Add in the additional depth provided by Tyreek Bakinson and goalscorer Oliver Irow, a solid debut for academy graduate Joe Mwaro, and injury news for Malachi Boateng being far better than feared, and suddenly things don’t seem so bad. Right?!
The relatively good mood is perhaps an indication of how a week can be a long time in football, and how one performance can swiftly change perspectives. With that in mind, how Tom Cleverley’s side perform this weekend may do plenty to set the mood ahead of Tuesday’s transfer deadline. An easy game would be appreciated in these circumstances…so of course, Argyle will be taking on the league leaders.
Bradford City are in fact the only team in League One to have won both league games this season. And I think there’s a general expectation they’ll be in for a good year. Their run to the play-offs last season surprised many, but after a good summer they appear well-placed to launch another assault on the top six. Maybe even beyond.
Their start has brought great encouragement, and going three from three with a win at Home Park would provide a significant boost. What can we expect from the Bantams?
Style of play
I certainly don’t foresee any surprises in terms of the shape. Graham Alexander joined Bradford as manager in November 2023, and he’s almost exclusively lined up with a back three in the three years since. Given it’s won him a promotion and been a key part of his side making the play-offs last season, he’s hardly going to be minded to change shape now.
So far in the league, that back three has been unchanged. We’ve seen Macauley Gillesphey, formerly of Argyle, Matthew Pennington, perennially linked to Argyle, and Aden Baldwin, who as far as I can see has no links to Argyle. Bradford did sign another former Argyle loanee in the goalkeeper position over the summer, with Cameron Dawson joining from Rotherham United. However, he seems firmly second-choice right now behind another new arrival: Jon McCracken (no, really) from Dundee.
The defensive line isn’t necessarily set in stone. Baldwin missed the excellent Carabao Cup win over Burnley in midweek, with Reece Welch (another rumoured Argyle target of years gone by) playing the full 90 minutes. The noises would suggest Baldwin is set to be fit again for the trip to Home Park, but Welch, Callum Connolly and Joe Wright offer alternative options.
The three teams to complete the highest number of long passes in League One last year have all faced Argyle in their first five games of the season.
Playing out from the back isn’t generally part of Alexander’s style, so it isn’t crucial for the defenders to be ball-playing. In fact, it’s notable that the three teams to complete the highest number of long passes in League One last year – Bradford, Exeter City and Stockport County – have all faced Argyle in their first five games of the season. The Greens therefore ought to be suitably prepared.
Alexander tends to play a 3-4-2-1, so it’s likely those long passes will take two routes: balls into the channels for the two “inside forwards” to chase, and long punts towards a central striker. From the start, that striker is likely to be Jake Beesley, who has started every game since joining from Burton Albion over the summer. However, I’m not sure he’ll last the 90, with Nick Powell coming on as a second-half substitute for Beesley in all four games thus far.
Behind the striker, Will Swan appears to be in favour at the moment. He bagged the crucial equaliser when these sides last met back in April, and scored more goals per 90 minutes in the league last season than any other Bradford player. Other options include Bobby Pointon, Kayden Jackson and Adam Phillips, the latter of whom made his full debut for the club against Burnley on Wednesday.
The exact makeup of the attack could depend on who needs to “fill in” across other roles. For example, Josh Neufville started three successive games as the right wing back, but was absent on Wednesday night, so Jackson stepped back into the role. I expect to see Ibou Touray start on the other flank with former Green Tyreik Wright injured. Though, given these previews have explicitly ruled out Cauley Woodrow and Daniel Bentley across the last two games, and both featured, I don’t know what to think anymore.
It can lead to a 4-2-3-1 shape emerging by proxy at times, with Touray sitting back and one of the inside forwards pushing out to the left flank to attack.
Whoever plays in the wing back roles, the right side would be considered the more attacking of the two. Whilst Touray is classed as a more conventional left back, Jackson and Neufville are both attacking players. It can lead to a 4-2-3-1 shape emerging by proxy at times, with Touray sitting back and one of the inside forwards pushing out to the left flank to attack.
That leaves the deep midfield roles, where both players appear to be slightly out of position. Connolly, probably more of a centre back by trade, has been playing in midfield since joining from Rochdale over the summer. As has Antoni Sarcevic, yet another player with Argyle connections. We’re probably more used to seeing him in attacking areas, but he’s perhaps following the route of dropping deeper as he reaches the twilight years of his career.
At this rate, he’ll win yet another League Two promotion as a centre back at the age of 39.
Strengths
There is so much to like about the way Bradford defend. As mentioned, the Bantams are they the only side in League One to have won both league games so far this season. They’re also the only team not to have conceded a single goal. That record extends to the cup too, with Bradford keeping clean sheets against Rochdale and, impressively, Burnley in their route to qualifying for the League Cup third round.
Naturally, the entire Bradford defensive unit is worthy of praise. Baldwin, for instance, has started the season in superb style, winning over 75% of his aerial duels and scoring the winner away to Sheffield Wednesday on matchday two.
And special praise, in my view, ought to be reserved for goalkeeper McCracken. He joined the Bantams on the back of a strong season of shot stopping for Dundee. Post-shot xG data suggests he prevented 5.61 goals in the Scottish Premiership, as he conceded 56 times from the 61.61 xG on target he faced. And McCracken seems to be going from strength to strength. Early on this season, he’s yet to concede, despite facing shots worth 3.58 on the post-shot xG scale across his four games.
He’s obviously not unbeatable. In recent history I remember no opposition player scoring against Anthony Patterson in the first four games of the 2024/25 season, before Argyle put three past him and his Sunderland side when they visited Home Park. They’ll aim to do the same to Bradford and McCracken this weekend, but there’s evidence they’ll need to be clinical with their shooting.
Bradford’s strengths in defence are not a flash in the pan. They come into this campaign on the back of a season where their defending, more than anything else, provided the platform for their top six finish. 51 goals conceded marked one of the league’s better defensive records, and Bradford’s total of 14 clean sheets was in similar territory. Most impressively, their total xG against of 45.9 was lower than any other team in the division.
Bradford are the sort of team who will refuse to give you time on the ball. For instance, they made more tackles last season (828) than any other team in League One. And that defensive intensity starts right at the front, with only Luton Town winning possession in the opposition’s final third more times per game last season than Bradford’s 4.1. When it works, it creates the perfect cocktail. Bradford will keep things tight at one end of the field, but exert pressure and create openings as a result at the other.
All in all, the data suggests Argyle will struggle to score this weekend. That’s not to say they definitely won’t, and naturally I hope they score a hatful. However, they’ll need to work hard in order to do so, and perhaps have a bit of luck fall their way.
I can’t help but think back to this fixture last season. Yes, it came in what was a disastrous first half of the campaign, but it was one of the better Argyle performances under Cleverley before the turn of the year. Still, Bradford remained resolute, kept a clean sheet, and eventually won the game. A repeat here wouldn’t come as a shock.
Weaknesses
Regular readers of these pieces will probably have an idea where this is going. I’ve just spent practically the entire previous section praising the way Bradford defend. Their weaknesses tend to come at the other end.
The basic attacking metrics tell a clear story. Yes, Bradford did well to finish fourth and reach the League One play-offs last season. However, their total of 58 goals was only the 14th-highest figure in the division. Their attacking xG stats weren’t much better. Bradford’s total xG was 62.5 last season, barely enough to rank within the top half.
For me, the Bantams didn’t capitalise on the openings they developed. They had a solid number of touches in the opposition box, with their total of 1,080 enough to rank in the league’s top six. Did they make the most of that? Not for me. As well as their relatively average xG statistics, Bradford’s total number of shots on target and big chances also fell within the 10th-11th range.
It’s arguable that Alexander’s men had a creativity problem last term. And that may now get even worse due to a lack of power. Literally. Max Power, another player with a tenuous Argyle link, left this summer to join Wigan Athletic for an undisclosed fee. Power created more big chances (12) and made far more key passes (73) than anyone in Bradford’s ranks last season. Sure, they’ve made a strong start, but that’s an awful lot to make up for over the course of a whole year.
Elsewhere, and this may come as a surprise given everything I said in the previous section, I do want to pick up on a potential weakness at the other end. Obviously, Bradford defend remarkably well in general, and that extends to multiple facets of the game. I do, however, think they have a slight issue dealing with set pieces.
With the work Argyle put into dead-ball situations, they’ll surely fancy themselves to notch at least once using that method.
Last season, the Bantams conceded 18 set piece goals in the league, with only five teams conceding more. And that becomes even more alarming when you consider that Bradford didn’t concede many goals overall, meaning set pieces made up a significant proportion of their goals against. With the work Argyle put into dead-ball situations, and the structure of their lineup often reflecting this, they’ll surely fancy themselves to notch at least once using that method.
Finally, a quick note that Bradford aren’t exactly the cleanest team in the league when it comes to discipline. They picked up 105 bookings last season, the second-highest figure in League One. The only side to pick up more? Argyle, with 119.
Patience could be key for both sides here. A number of bookings could lead to patterns of play being broken up, while substitutions could become necessary to avoid the risk of red cards. It certainly isn’t out of the question that this game will be won from the bench.
Prediction
I appreciate the xG graphics used in this piece took data from last season, but plenty may carry over between campaigns. The data shows one team excellent going forward and average in defence, and the other excellent in defence and average going forward. That really does add a layer of unpredictability.
Are Bradford due a goal against? Arguably so, and conceding one could see the floodgates open as they did against Sunderland two years ago. Statistics don’t work that way though, and I suspect the most likely outcome here is a tight encounter. So tight, in fact, that I think I’ll back the score draw.
Plymouth Argyle 1-1 Bradford City
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